Dan Druff's 2023 MLB picks

[Dan Druff]

Won both above.

Starting soon:

Kevin Gausman's side hurts, and he hasn't pitched in 2 weeks. Logan Gilbert is inconsistent, and looked shaky in his last outing.

You don't need much to break a 7.5 total these days.

Toronto (Gausman) at Seattle (Gilbert) - Over 7.5 -110


Starting later:

Detroit (M. Manning) +119 vs San Diego (Wolf)

Manning has been one of the few bright spots on this Tigers team. Jackson Wolf has pitched well at AA, but has never played higher than that, prior to today.

[Dan Druff]

Split them. Got screwed with the Detroit rain delay. Reliever after the delay gave up 9! Over on Seattle hit easily.

Today:



Dodgers (Sheehan) -115 at Texas (Ma. Perez)

Cubs (Taillon) +107 vs St. Louis (Montgomery)

Milwaukee (Teheran) +139 vs Atlanta (Elder)

[Dan Druff]

One more

San Francisco (Alexander) at Washington (Gore) - over 9 -115

[Dan Druff]

Got punched in the face by MLB yesterday.

San Francisco couldn't score against the LOL Washington pitching staff, and that game finished 6-1. Over lost.

Atlanta was Atlanta and had an 8th-inning comeback, overcoming Milwaukee's thin 2-1 lead. Lost.

Dodgers were up 4-0 but their pitching woes continued, and they lost 8-4. Lost.

Only success story was the Cubs, who broke out to a 7-0 lead, and never looked back. Jameson Taillon is somehow pitching well last few outings, and should be watched for betting purposes.

So I went 1-3 and lost a bit less than 2 units. Ugh.

That makes me 1-4 since rolling off 6 wins in a row. To be fair, none of these 4 losses were bad picks. The Detroit pick was going well until the rain delay, the Dodgers were up 4-0 to start, the Brewers were up in the 8th inning (and for most of the game), and the Nationals scored 6 runs when I had over 9.

All I can do is make good picks, and hope the luck is with me.

[Dan Druff]

Let's look at old Dodgers friend Kenta Maeda.

He sports a troublesome 5.10 ERA through 9 starts. At age 35, is he done?

Not so fast. A look at his individual games shows a horrendous 10-run beatdown in 3 innings on April 26. Turned out he had a bad elbow, pitched anyway, and then was out for 2 months recovering.

Let's look at his 5 stats since returning. All have been good except a surprisingly bad one in Oakland on July 14, where he was wild. Against the Mariners, whom he's facing today, he allowed just 1 hit in 5 innings, with zero walks. He finally tired in the 6th and coughed up a 2-run HR, but otherwise pitched great.

Luis Castillo seems to be going great overall, with a 3.04 ERA and 1.048 WHIP. But let's look a bit closer again. In 5 of his past 6 starts, he's coughed up 2 HR. This is starting to become an issue.

Minnesota has won 8 of 10, and is starting to pull away in the tight AL Central. They are 29-22 at home.

I believe this game will go to the Twins.

Minnesota (Maeda) -110 vs Seattle (L. Castillo)

[Dan Druff]

Well... that one wasn't easy. 2-1 all the way to top of the 9th, 2 out, nobody on. Lock it up?

Nope. Single, then a home run by Kolten freakin' Wong, and it's 3-2 Mariners.

Then the Twins push across a run in the bottom of the 9th but leave a runner at 2nd. They manage to blank 'em in the 10th and get their runner from 2nd home, and I win 4-3. Phew!

[Dan Druff]

Two games today, one early, one later this afternoon.

St. Louis (Flaherty) +127 at Arizona (Gallen)

Zac Gallen has given up 10 HR since June 4



Detroit (Lorenzen) -104 vs Angels (P. Sandoval)

Patrick Sandoval has walked 9 in last 3 starts combined, Michael Lorenzen has given up 0 ER in last 3 starts

[Dan Druff]

Cardinals won.


Okay, let's look at this Battle of the Bay coming up this evening.

The A's have rookie Freddy Tarnok going, who is likely to throw 3 innings like he did last time out. Tarnok has done in his brief MLB stint essentially the same as what he was doing in AAA. In both the minors and Majors, he's battling control issues yet otherwise not allowing that many runs. He's then followed by Hogan Harris, who pitched well through late June, but then got hit pretty hard 3 consecutive times from June 29 to July 15. In his last outing, however, he pitched fairly well against Houston.

The Giants have Ryan Walker starting, but don't read too much into that. He's going to be an opener, probably not going more than 2 innings, and will be followed by Alex Wood. As has been typical of Wood's career, he's been inconsistent in 2023. On June 22, he got bombed by the Padres. On June 27, he pitched great against the Blue Jays. On July 2, he was super wild and gave up 5 runs to the Mets in less than 2 innings. He bounced back and threw 5 shutout innings in relief against the Rockies (in SF) on July 8. Finally back as a starter, he allowed 8 baserunners, and lifted in the 4th, though he only gave up 1 run. The lowly Nationals hit him for 5 runs last time out.

The key here is Wood. Is he worth a 2-to-1 favorite, given his recent struggles, or is it +EV to oppose him?

While the A's are a horrid team and the two pitchers they have lined up are uninspiring, Wood's control issues and general struggles lately don't bode well for him, especially on an evening with a 9-11mph wind blowing out. It is cool in SF tonight (60 degrees or so), so that will somewhat negate the wind regarding the HR advantage, but still, overall the wind should help carry some balls out.

A's have also gone 3-4 in their last 7, which for them counts as a hot streak. They were notched 2-1 by the Giants last night.

If you can, don't bet on "listed" for the Giants, as Walker starting doesn't matter. We are focused on Wood. Probably won't matter, though, as we are close to gametime.

Oakland (Tarnok) +200 at San Francisco (any/Walker)

[Dan Druff]

Hmm, too late for me because I already placed the bet. But you might want to "action" the whole bet, because ESPN claims Harris is starting. I think ESPN is wrong, though. I see Tarnok everywhere else, including this official A's post from 2 hours ago:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/#!/x/status/1684328581336539137

[Dan Druff]

Oakland lost that game above.

Today:

Dare I go under in this era of offense?

Atlanta (Smith-Shawver) vs Milwaukee (Rea) - Under 11 +100
Colorado (Blach) vs Oakland (Medina) - Under 12.5 -120 (under 12 -110 ok)

[Dan Druff]

Split 'em. Easily won the Oakland under (by 10.5 runs!), lost the Atlanta under by 3.


I've got two tonight. Both Sox.

White Sox (Scholtens) +173 at Texas (Heaney)

Fading Heaney here, who has coughed up 15 runs in his last 18 1/3 IP, over 4 games. His only good recent outing was against the light-hitting Injuns. This is only the 3rd time in his career that he has more than 100 IP in a year.


Boston (Bello) -105 at Seattle (Bryce Miller)

Rookie Bryce Miller coughed up 4 HR in his last outing. Aside from a recent bad start in Oakland of all places, Bryan Bello has had all quality starts since June 4, going 6+ innings and 3 or fewer ER each time. Consistent!

[Dan Druff]

It's that time of year when those tempting big dogs can kick you in the ass. That's what happened to me yesterday, as my even-moneyish Boston pick managed to win, but the White Sox were shut down 2-0.

Aside from a few short slumps, I've been mostly consistently winning in MLB this season, sticking mostly to small favorites and small dogs, eschewing the ploppyish big favorites and mostly avoiding the wishful big dogs. I've long felt that there is too much variance in big MLB dogs after June 1, except in some cases where the game is seemingly a tossup at big dog odds.

Today I just have one totals pick for you.

NY Mets (Senga) at Kansas City (Ragans) - Under 9 -118

[Dan Druff]

Won the Mets under.

Today:

Miami (Luzardo) +122 at Texas (Montgomery)

Colorado (Flexen) at St. Louis (Wainwright) - over 9.5 -115

[Dan Druff]

Oakland (Blackburn) vs San Francisco (Stripling) - over 8.5 -115

[Dan Druff]

Lost the over above.

Today:

Wish I woke up early enough for Reds.

Anyway, here's the one remaining one I like:

St. Louis (Hudson) vs Tampa Bay (Beeks/bullpen) - Under 9 +100

[Dan Druff]

Lost yesterday by 1.

Today:

Well... I'm in a bit of a slump.

Which is why I don't love trying to get out of it with a big dog, but here we are.

James Paxton is 5.40 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 23:9 K/BB since July 1. I'm going with the Royals today and their bullpen to take this one over Boston. You can list Paxton but leave it open for the Royals.

Kansas City (bullpen/Cox) +195 at Boston (Paxton)

[Dan Druff]

Lost yesterday. KC shut out.

Today:
August dog days struggles.

I have two for you anyway.

Pittsburgh (Oviedo) -111 vs Cincinnati (Abbott)

Two pitchers going completely opposite directions.


Arizona (Nelson) +144 vs San Diego (Snell)

[Dan Druff]

Ugh. Lost both.

Today:

Judge is playing, as is Stanton (ok that's not so exciting), and you can get +170 on the Yanks. What a time.

Yankees (Schmidt) +170 at Atlanta (Fried)

[Dan Druff]

Lost again... big time.

Today:

Atlanta (Elder) vs Yankees (Severino) - Over 10.5 -110

Severino has been absolutely terrible in every start. Elder has been bombed with 5-7 runs in 4 starts since July 9, including his last 2.

[Dan Druff]

Hoping to break the losing streak.

Cincinnati (Abbott) vs Cleveland (Syndergaard) - Over 9.5 -115