Dan Druff's 2023 MLB picks

[Don Perignom]

Hoping to break the losing streak.

Cincinnati (Abbott) vs Cleveland (Syndergaard) - Over 9.5 -115

You had the right idea.

Bad luck to go scoreless the final 3 innings. I needed a minute to find the game on the board. Cleveland is now the Guardians. What did Indians do wrong to get canceled?

[Dan Druff]

Hoping to break the losing streak.

Cincinnati (Abbott) vs Cleveland (Syndergaard) - Over 9.5 -115

You had the right idea.

Bad luck to go scoreless the final 3 innings. I needed a minute to find the game on the board. Cleveland is now the Guardians. What did Indians do wrong to get canceled?

I should have won this one. Not only was there a scoreless final 3, but in the 8th, the Reds had 2nd and 3rd nobody out, and couldn't score. Cleveland also had a HR robbed from them earlier in the game.

[Dan Druff]

Bad run for me.

Much like poker losing streaks, it's a combination of bad luck (yesterday should've been a win) and pressing.

The SD/Arizona game tonight is interesting. It features Rich Hill, who hasn't gotten out of the 4th inning in his past 2 starts (and wasn't pitching well before that), and Zac Gallen, who was lights out for the first half of the season, and then became mediocre for five straight starts from early July to early August. Last time out, he looked back to his former self, and shut out the Padres for 6 innings.

The ploppies LOVE Arizona tonight. They get All-Star Zac Gallen against 43-year-old Rich Hill, who appears to finally be finished. And they get a small dog price! What a steal!

But this has trap written all over it. The money is more on the Padres, while the number of tickets are more on Arizona -- one of the indicators that the sharp bettors like SD and the ploppies like AZ.

Does this mean I like SD? Not really. There's no doubt that Rich Hill is bordering on useless. In his last 10 starts, the best he's done was give up 2 ER. In 8 of those 10 starts, he lasted fewer than 6 innings. In 3 of the past 4, he didn't make it through five innings. The only thing to his credit is that the only complete bombing was on August 6th against the Dodgers, which of course happens to a lot of pitchers these days. Additionally, Gallen shut down these same Padres last time out. So do I really like Hill at a small favorite line today? Nope.

I think the safer bet is a first-5 over. You'll notice that BOL has the strange O4 -145 line. That's indicative they're trying to push sharps away from betting on it, rather than simply moving it to 4.5. Good sign.

Don't bet it on BOL. Look elsewhere. I have a book taking 4.5 -110, and I see it elsewhere, as well.


San Diego (Hill) vs Arizona (Gallen) - OVER 4.5 -110 - FIRST 5 INNINGS

[Dan Druff]

Lost again. By 0.5.

Today:

Colorado (Lambert) -123 vs White Sox (Kopech)

[Dan Druff]

Finally won!


Here's an under for you, starting very soon:

Toronto (Kikuchi) at Baltimore (G. Rodriguez) - Under 8 -115

[Dan Druff]

I see the Dodgers -1.5 at -120. It hurts to put down -120 for -1.5 on the road, but this is a ploppy's paradise with Syndergaard on the mound and the crap Injuns offense.

Dodgers -1.5 -120 (B. Miller) at Cleveland (Syndergaard)

[Dan Druff]

Lost that, too. Yet the Dodgers killed the Injuns in the other games. Ugh.

Okay, so with that said, here's one I like.

The Reds are in a pennant AND wildcard race, just smacked around the Angels (but who doesn't these days), and their main issue is pitching. How bad is their pitching? The only worse NL teams in runs allowed are the Nationals, Cardinals, and Rockies -- all last place teams. The Reds are also a very nice 36-27 on the road, even taking a series from the Dodgers who nobody seems to beat at home for the last few years.

The D-backs are 8-2 in their last 10, and have a 4 game winning streak. They aren't in a pennant race (12.5 games back), but are in the same wildcard fight as the Reds, with virtually the same record.

Sounds like a pretty even matchup, right? Except maybe if the D-backs have a big pitching advantage. But today they don't.

Over his last 10 starts, Merrill Kelly has 0 ER once, 1 ER twice, 2 ER twice, and 3 ER four times, and 5 ER once. So he's been solid, but not dominant.

Since early July, Brandon Williamson has a 3.38 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 47:15 K:BB across 48 innings. He's basically had two not-so-good starts in that stretch (though neither terrible).

These are two hot teams, two pitchers who have been solid but not dominant since early July, and two both fighting for a wildcard spot.

I like the line here.

Reds (B. Williamson) +154 at Arizona (M. Kelly)

[Dan Druff]

So brutal. Had a 3-2 lead in the 8th and lost to Carroll's 1st homer since July.

Today:

You can't run bad forever. Or can you? I've had some bad streaks in poker over the years which would make you guys projectile vomit.

Lance Lynn is a new man in Dodger blue. He's returning to face an AL foe since his renaissance. Will we get back the old horrible Lynn, or the dominant Dodgers Lynn?

And will Kutter Crawford build upon his 1-hitter of the Yankees? Or did he pitch so well because the Yankees are terrible?

I believe that this one will go under, and the 10 line gives us some room. Don't be too concerned about the 9-10mph wind blowing out, as the drizzle and rain should counteract that somewhat (it also might delay or suspend the game, though, so watch out!)

Dodgers lineup tonight is more top heavy than usual, which is good for under bettors.

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Dodgers (Lynn) at Boston (K. Crawford) - Under 10 -105

[AxelWolf]

Results so far?

[Dan Druff]

They were good until about 3 weeks ago

[AxelWolf]

They were good until about 3 weeks ago

chants* NFL! NFL! NFL! NFL!

Thursday, September 7th.

[Dan Druff]

Dodgers (Pepiot) vs Arizona (Pfaadt) - Under 9 +100

[Dan Druff]

Won the Dodgers under above. I wanted to pick over on Dodgers last night, decided not to, and it easily covered. Oh well.

Today:

Oakland (Sears) +112 vs Angels (P. Sandoval)


Yes, I'm to the point where I'm making a +112 pick on the A's.

[Dan Druff]

Won the Oakland game easily.

Now time for the bad news. The results since I last updated.

On July 18, I was a solid 54-48, up 5.77 units. That was my last results report.

But it got better! I reeled off 5 more wins, putting me at a peak of 59-48, +10.37 units.

Then that afternoon (7/22), I lost my second pick -- Detroit vs SD. Then I kinda slipped a bit but was mostly spinning my wheels. Then from August 5 to 25, I had the most brutal run I've ever had in MLB, first losing 9 in a row, then winning one -123 pick, and then losing another 4 in a row. For those keeping score, that's a 1-13 run, dropping 12.19 units! OUCH!!

I've made 2 picks since then, and won both, including the one today.

Soooo... where do I stand? See the next post.

[Dan Druff]

Through 7/18: 54-48, +5.77 units

7/19:
Reds (Ashcraft) -111 vs San Francisco (Stripling) - W
Angels (Silseth) at Yankees (Rodon) - Over 9 -105 - W
2-0, +1.85

7/20:
Cincinnati (Abbott) -111 vs San Francisco (Cobb) - W
Milwaukee (Burnes) -106 at Philadelphia (T. Walker) - W
2-0, +1.84

7/22:
Toronto (Gausman) at Seattle (Gilbert) - Over 7.5 -110 - W
Detroit (M. Manning) +119 vs San Diego (Wolf) - L
1-1, -0.09

7/23:
Dodgers (Sheehan) -115 at Texas (Ma. Perez) - L
Cubs (Taillon) +107 vs St. Louis (Montgomery) - W
Milwaukee (Teheran) +139 vs Atlanta (Elder) - L
San Francisco (Alexander) at Washington (Gore) - over 9 -115 - L
1-3, -1.95

7/24:
Minnesota (Maeda) -110 vs Seattle (L. Castillo) - W
1-0, +0.91

7/26:
St. Louis (Flaherty) +127 at Arizona (Gallen) - W
Detroit (Lorenzen) -104 vs Angels (P. Sandoval) - RAINED OUT
Oakland (Tarnok) +200 at San Francisco (any/Walker) - L
1-1, +0.27

7/30:
Atlanta (Smith-Shawver) vs Milwaukee (Rea) - Under 11 +100 - L
Colorado (Blach) vs Oakland (Medina) - Under 12.5 -120 (under 12 -110 ok) - W
1-1, even

8/1:
White Sox (Scholtens) +173 at Texas (Heaney) - L
Boston (Bello) -105 at Seattle (Bryce Miller) - W
1-1, -0.05

8/2:
NY Mets (Senga) at Kansas City (Ragans) - Under 9 -118 - W
1-0, +0.85

8/4:
Miami (Luzardo) +122 at Texas (Montgomery) - L
Colorado (Flexen) at St. Louis (Wainwright) - over 9.5 -115 - W
1-1, -0.13

8/5:
Oakland (Blackburn) vs San Francisco (Stripling) - over 8.5 -115 - L
0-1, -1.00

8/9:
St. Louis (Hudson) vs Tampa Bay (Beeks/bullpen) - Under 9 +100 - L
0-1, -1.00

8/10:
Kansas City (bullpen/Cox) +195 at Boston (Paxton) - L
0-1, -1.00

8/11:
Pittsburgh (Oviedo) -111 vs Cincinnati (Abbott) - L
Arizona (Nelson) +144 vs San Diego (Snell) - L
0-2, -2.00

8/14:
Yankees (Schmidt) +170 at Atlanta (Fried) - L
0-1, -1.00

8/15:
Atlanta (Elder) vs Yankees (Severino) - Over 10.5 -110 - L
0-1, -1.00

8/16:
Cincinnati (Abbott) vs Cleveland (Syndergaard) - Over 9.5 -115 - L
0-1, -1.00

8/17:
San Diego (Hill) vs Arizona (Gallen) - OVER 4.5 -110 - FIRST 5 INNINGS
0-1, -1.00

8/18:
Colorado (Lambert) -123 vs White Sox (Kopech) - W
1-0, +0.81

8/22:
Toronto (Kikuchi) at Baltimore (G. Rodriguez) - Under 8 -115 - L
Dodgers -1.5 -120 (B. Miller) at Cleveland (Syndergaard) - L
0-2, -2.00

8/24:
Reds (B. Williamson) +154 at Arizona (M. Kelly) - L
0-1, -1.00

8/25:
Dodgers (Lynn) at Boston (K. Crawford) - Under 10 -105 - L
0-1, -1.00

8/30:
Dodgers (Pepiot) vs Arizona (Pfaadt) - Under 9 +100 - W
1-0, +1.00

9/1:
Oakland (Sears) +112 vs Angels (P. Sandoval) - W
1-0, +1.12

TOTAL 7/19-9/1: 15-21, -6.57 units

GRAND TOTAL: 69-69, -0.80 units

So just a hair under even right now, including the juice.

Need a good final month to make this a decent season.

[Dan Druff]

Kansas City (Marsh) +156 vs Boston (Houck)

[Dan Druff]

Lost the KC pick, taking me to -1.8 units on the season.

Today:

Cincinnati (Phillips) +136 vs Seattle

San Francisco (R. Walker) +117 at Cubs (Hendricks)

[Dan Druff]

Split 'em, winning Cincinnati but losing SF.

Now 70-71, -1.44 units


Today:

I didn't completely forget about baseball betting.

George Kirby is in a dysfunctional situation right now in Seattle. He's had a 6.00 ERA over his past 4 starts, and after the last one, he whined about being left in the game in the 7th inning "after 90 pitches". Yes, dude was whining about NOT being taken out.

This has drawn the ire of fans and former players, and the team is none too pleased.

Bobby Miller also has somewhat struggled in his past 4 starts, though he threw a gem against the Braves last week. I still like him and the Dodgers at near even money, especially with the Dodgers having the much better offense.

Kirby just seems like a guy in a funk right now.

Dodgers (B. Miller) -107 at Seattle (Kirby)

[Dan Druff]

Won the Dodgers bet two days ago, to take me to 71-71, -0.51 units.

Today:

Tampa Bay (Littel) +105 at Baltimore (Kremer)

[Dan Druff]

Ugly beat. 3-1 Rays in bottom 8, 3-2 Rays bottom 9th 2 out nobody on, and they can't win. They even were up 4-3 in the 10th with 2 out. Still no good.

Today:

Philadelphia (Wheeler) -110 at Atlanta (Wright)