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Thread: To Todd and Sundry

  1. #21
    Redietz, how unusual for your response to be a condescending, talk-down to 'putdown'.

    No, I am not an expert on sports betting. But I do know a thing or two about expected value. Granted EV is very different for blackjack card counting compared to sports betting, but it is still EV. And there has to be something that makes it positive to achieve long-term winnings. I am just not a believer in continuously getting lucky. That is the issue I have with both Singer's and Mdogs claims.

    No frankly, I DON'T want to read a 3000 word explanation. I would think a guy calling himself a sports betting expert for decades could explain his position in less than 3000 words.

    Plus you have had the opportunity to go on GWAE and explain your position and have pretty much done everything you can to not make that happen.

  2. #22
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Redietz, how unusual for your response to be a condescending, talk-down to 'putdown'.

    No, I am not an expert on sports betting. But I do know a thing or two about expected value. Granted EV is very different for blackjack card counting compared to sports betting, but it is still EV. And there has to be something that makes it positive to achieve long-term winnings. I am just not a believer in continuously getting lucky. That is the issue I have with both Singer's and Mdogs claims.

    No frankly, I DON'T want to read a 3000 word explanation. I would think a guy calling himself a sports betting expert for decades could explain his position in less than 3000 words.

    Plus you have had the opportunity to go on GWAE and explain your position and have pretty much done everything you can to not make that happen.

    See, this is an example of kewlJ talking out of his ass, which happens on too many occasions. How exactly do you know I had the opportunity to "go on GWAE and explain" my position? Don't be shy. Explain exactly how you know that?

    Have you listened in on phone calls? Read emails back and forth? Talked to me privately about it? Corresponded with Munch or Dancer about it?

    No?

    Then how in God's name can you make the statements you just made?

    You know how? Because you made the leap to stating something you know nothing about. Not unusual.

    GWAE aside, can you imagine me telling kewlJ or any professional blackjack player his business? Fools rush in and all that.

    It's becoming clear to me that most people use the "EV" jargon without making any real attempt to define "EV." If they made the attempt to pin down the definition of "EV" or even THEIR subjective definition of "EV," they'd be halfway home to understanding why it's not appropriate to use for sports betting.
    Last edited by redietz; 04-16-2023 at 08:01 AM.

  3. #23
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    See, this is an example of kewlJ talking out of his ass, which happens on too many occasions. How exactly do you know I had the opportunity to "go on GWAE and explain" my position? Don't be shy. Explain exactly how you know that?

    Have you listened in on phone calls? Read emails back and forth? Talked to me privately about it? Corresponded with Munch or Dancer about it?

    No?

    Then how in God's name can you make the statements you just made?
    God I am so tired of this shit. Every day, same shit, different chapter. Different member.

    Redietz, I don't give a fuck if you go on GWAE or not.

    The facts are that you have made statements about expected value (EV) that differ from the way I and most advantage players think about EV. I initially thought that might have been a terminology issue, because of differences in traditional advantage play and sports betting. But Mickey crimm has dug up and posted quite a few other sports betters that also seem to contradict your statements and way of thinking.

    I still think it may very well be sort of a terminology type issue. And I would have liked to hear you explain what you mean, so everyone understood. GWAE seemed like the perfect spot. Mickey set it up as much as he could. When you seemed to drag your feet, he said there was nothing more he could do and gave you the contact info. And now what are we a month or two later and nothing. What the fuck negotiation is there? You don't have to be in LV to do the interview. Most of the interviews are done over the phone, or skype or something (not in person). With the announcement that GWAE is winding down, it seems like you are dragging your feet.

    Now again, I don't care. If you don't want to do the show, then don't do the show. I first declined GWAE almost a decade ago, seeing no benefit to that kind of platform. If you think it is not for you, then don't do it. But don't give us this BS about negotiations and shit. If you wanted it to have happened and wanted to take that opportunity to explain yourself, you would have by now. It is another case of someone pissing on us and telling us it is raining.

    I will conclude by saying this. I have challenged several different people / players over the years. Singer, Mdog, the late Moses. Each of these people responded by attacking (usually very personal and not related to anything) rather than explain any misunderstanding. I am seeing some of that from you. Attacking APs in general and specifically. I am not saying you are full of shit, like Singer or Mdawg, but I would much rather see a level-headed response, maybe explaining some differences in thinking or terminology. Honestly that is the way, I have always tried to handle people questing me. It gets harder when you feel like people are ganging up with dishonest intent, which is why I have defended you against that.

    Anyway, nothing more I can do. Nothing more mickey or axelwolf or anyone can do. If you want to explain yourself, do so. If you don't, that is fine too. Run around offering to sign a book that has nothing to do with gambling or sports betting and no one seems that interested in except you.

  4. #24
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    See, this is an example of kewlJ talking out of his ass, which happens on too many occasions. How exactly do you know I had the opportunity to "go on GWAE and explain" my position? Don't be shy. Explain exactly how you know that?

    Have you listened in on phone calls? Read emails back and forth? Talked to me privately about it? Corresponded with Munch or Dancer about it?

    No?

    Then how in God's name can you make the statements you just made?
    God I am so tired of this shit. Every day, same shit, different chapter. Different member.

    Redietz, I don't give a fuck if you go on GWAE or not.

    The facts are that you have made statements about expected value (EV) that differ from the way I and most advantage players think about EV. I initially thought that might have been a terminology issue, because of differences in traditional advantage play and sports betting. But Mickey crimm has dug up and posted quite a few other sports betters that also seem to contradict your statements and way of thinking.

    I still think it may very well be sort of a terminology type issue. And I would have liked to hear you explain what you mean, so everyone understood. GWAE seemed like the perfect spot. Mickey set it up as much as he could. When you seemed to drag your feet, he said there was nothing more he could do and gave you the contact info. And now what are we a month or two later and nothing. What the fuck negotiation is there? You don't have to be in LV to do the interview. Most of the interviews are done over the phone, or skype or something (not in person). With the announcement that GWAE is winding down, it seems like you are dragging your feet.

    Now again, I don't care. If you don't want to do the show, then don't do the show. I first declined GWAE almost a decade ago, seeing no benefit to that kind of platform. If you think it is not for you, then don't do it. But don't give us this BS about negotiations and shit. If you wanted it to have happened and wanted to take that opportunity to explain yourself, you would have by now. It is another case of someone pissing on us and telling us it is raining.

    I will conclude by saying this. I have challenged several different people / players over the years. Singer, Mdog, the late Moses. Each of these people responded by attacking (usually very personal and not related to anything) rather than explain any misunderstanding. I am seeing some of that from you. Attacking APs in general and specifically. I am not saying you are full of shit, like Singer or Mdawg, but I would much rather see a level-headed response, maybe explaining some differences in thinking or terminology. Honestly that is the way, I have always tried to handle people questing me. It gets harder when you feel like people are ganging up with dishonest intent, which is why I have defended you against that.

    Anyway, nothing more I can do. Nothing more mickey or axelwolf or anyone can do. If you want to explain yourself, do so. If you don't, that is fine too. Run around offering to sign a book that has nothing to do with gambling or sports betting and no one seems that interested in except you.

    Here's a brilliant suggestion for the allegedly precise and fair kewlJ: instead of deciding, on your own with zero evidence and zero knowledge of anything that took place between GWAE and myself, why don't you contact Munch or Dancer directly and ask them if I dragged my feet or didn't want to be on the show?

    I know, just a startling idea. So complex. So sophisticated. The idea of fact checking before blathering. Amazing concept.

    What on God's green earth made you think you knew what the interactions were between GWAE and me? Mickey told you? Axelwolf told you? You had a dream? You just know everything because you're an "AP?"

    The book, by the way, contains my little origin story, so it actually has something to do with gambling and sports betting. Wait, you didn't know that? You mean that you commented about my contribution to the book without having read my story?

    Shocking.

    Let's see if you have the honesty to show up to learn why the term "AP" should not be used when discussing sports betting. You have been completely dishonest when posting about my interactions with GWAE. And wrong, by the way. Let's see how honest you are about reporting what I have to say regarding "EV."

  5. #25
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    You have been completely dishonest when posting about my interactions with GWAE.
    Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus.

    I told you so.

  6. #26
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post

    What on God's green earth made you think you knew what the interactions were between GWAE and me? Mickey told you? Axelwolf told you? You had a dream? You just know everything because you're an "AP?"
    Where did I ever say I knew about interactions between you and either party at GWAE?? What I said was if you wanted this interview/appearance on the show to happen, it would have happened or been scheduled by now. Mickeycrimm did as much as he could for you.

    Now again, I don't care either way. If you were to have been on, I would have listened to hear your explanation of some inconsistencies that I now see. Other than that I don't give a fuck if you do GWAE or not.

    But I will tell you that your doubling and tripling down on these positions concerning EV that everyone knows is wrong and now you are saying even stupider shit like "the term "AP" should not be used when discussing sports betting", when it has been proven beyond contestation by Axelwolf and others that there are APs winning through AP methods ALONE in sportsbetting. No handicapping or anything. Not knowing anything about teams or players. Just pure AP play.

    You seem to have put yourself in this place where it is you against the world. And what is even worse is that like many on these forums seem to have adopted this motion that what others are doing is some how diminishing what you do or have accomplished. Like everything else on these forums, YOU have turned this into a pissing contest, when it shouldn't be that at all.

    I still believe you have accomplished what you have claimed, with the approach you take of lots of contests and stuff. That other people do things completely different than you and win (more AP stuff) in no way is a reflection on anything you have claimed or done, except now you have made it into a war....a big pissing contest.

  7. #27
    The new Taylor Swift song playing at the gym today reminded me of someone:

    I have this thing where I get older but just never wiser
    ...

    I should not be left to my own devices
    They come with prices and vices
    I end up in crisis (tale as old as time)
    I wake up screaming from dreaming
    ...

    It's me, hi, I'm the problem, it's me
    At tea time, everybody agrees
    I'll stare directly at the sun but never in the mirror
    ...

    Did you hear my covert narcissism I disguise as altruism
    Like some kind of congressman? (Tale as old as time)
    I wake up screaming from dreaming
    ...

    It's me, hi, I'm the problem, it's me
    It's me, hi, I'm the problem, it's me
    It's me, hi, everybody agrees, everybody agrees

  8. #28
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post

    What on God's green earth made you think you knew what the interactions were between GWAE and me? Mickey told you? Axelwolf told you? You had a dream? You just know everything because you're an "AP?"
    Where did I ever say I knew about interactions between you and either party at GWAE?? What I said was if you wanted this interview/appearance on the show to happen, it would have happened or been scheduled by now. Mickeycrimm did as much as he could for you.

    Now again, I don't care either way. If you were to have been on, I would have listened to hear your explanation of some inconsistencies that I now see. Other than that I don't give a fuck if you do GWAE or not.

    But I will tell you that your doubling and tripling down on these positions concerning EV that everyone knows is wrong and now you are saying even stupider shit like "the term "AP" should not be used when discussing sports betting", when it has been proven beyond contestation by Axelwolf and others that there are APs winning through AP methods ALONE in sportsbetting. No handicapping or anything. Not knowing anything about teams or players. Just pure AP play.

    You seem to have put yourself in this place where it is you against the world. And what is even worse is that like many on these forums seem to have adopted this motion that what others are doing is some how diminishing what you do or have accomplished. Like everything else on these forums, YOU have turned this into a pissing contest, when it shouldn't be that at all.

    I still believe you have accomplished what you have claimed, with the approach you take of lots of contests and stuff. That other people do things completely different than you and win (more AP stuff) in no way is a reflection on anything you have claimed or done, except now you have made it into a war....a big pissing contest.

    LOL. That was actually a typo (the "AP" for "EV"). For some reason, the new browser version seems intent on finishing my sentences for me and presenting ways to finish a sentence. So I'm getting weird drop down menus when I stop a sentence. Either the browser finished the sentence for me when I accidentally hit a button or I went brain dead and typed what was ahead of the cursor in the drop down menu instead of what I meant to say.

    But carry on.

    It is a bit creepy when an AI is anticipating what it thinks you are going to write and presents you with options for what you should say based on some kind of personal history or what has appeared previously in the paragraphs.

  9. #29
    If anyone is up for understanding why the term/phrase "EV" is inappropriate for sports betting on Wednesday, I'll be;

    1) At South Point, in the breakfast buffet between 8 AM and 9:30 AM.

    2) At the Main Street Station brew pub between 5:30 PM and 7 PM.

    I'll be the old guy wearing the Vegas Golden Knights hat and reading a newspaper, which nobody does these days. Not sure about decibel levels in either locale, but I'll keep my fingers crossed that conversations are possible.

    Todd, we should touch base some time. I'll be back in July if that's convenient for you. Or if you're currently in town, drop by and say hey.

  10. #30
    Change in plans since the Brew Pub is closed tonight, surprisingly.

    Let's go with Happy Hour at Oscar's restaurant for the same hours, 5:30 to 7 PM.

  11. #31
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Change in plans since the Brew Pub is closed tonight, surprisingly.

    Let's go with Happy Hour at Oscar's restaurant for the same hours, 5:30 to 7 PM.
    Bbbwwaaaaaaaaahh, what the hell you doin in the Las Vegas? I figured you'd be in the chimpcongo, wetting yerself with glee enjoyin the oog-booga subhumanity bein perpetrated by yer precious nigger pets, hey hey????

  12. #32
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    If anyone is up for understanding why the term/phrase "EV" is inappropriate for sports betting on Wednesday, I'll be;

    1) At South Point, in the breakfast buffet between 8 AM and 9:30 AM.

    2) At the Main Street Station brew pub between 5:30 PM and 7 PM.

    I'll be the old guy wearing the Vegas Golden Knights hat and reading a newspaper, which nobody does these days. Not sure about decibel levels in either locale, but I'll keep my fingers crossed that conversations are possible.

    Todd, we should touch base some time. I'll be back in July if that's convenient for you. Or if you're currently in town, drop by and say hey.
    Yes, July would be better. Let me know when you are around in the early summer.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  13. #33
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    If anyone is up for understanding why the term/phrase "EV" is inappropriate for sports betting on Wednesday, I'll be;

    1) At South Point, in the breakfast buffet between 8 AM and 9:30 AM.

    2) At the Main Street Station brew pub between 5:30 PM and 7 PM.

    I'll be the old guy wearing the Vegas Golden Knights hat and reading a newspaper, which nobody does these days. Not sure about decibel levels in either locale, but I'll keep my fingers crossed that conversations are possible.

    Todd, we should touch base some time. I'll be back in July if that's convenient for you. Or if you're currently in town, drop by and say hey.
    Yes, July would be better. Let me know when you are around in the early summer.
    Will do.

    I had never visited the Mob Museum prior to this trip. Much more to it than I anticipated -- it vacillates between being pro-Mob and at least partially pro-law enforcement. Also, Happy Hour at Oscar's is quite nice. Try the meatballs. I'm no Italian food expert, but I love the meatballs.

    And an interesting sidelight -- generally, the classic sports books (Circa, Westgate, South Point) have had the most generous futures and a wider range earlier than others. For 2023 football, not the case. The books that take things most seriously are being most circumspect in putting numbers out there. That is a different context for Las Vegas.

    Also, I had a brief conversation with Circa about their limits. They have adopted the old CET strategy that I discussed about 12 years ago when I did a formal limits survey for Playbook. Game limits are tiered based on anticipated action -- with the flexibility of limiting action based on the amount of money anchoring the existing lines.

    Here's the kicker from my perspective -- Circa, which is considered, and considers itself, a big deal -- has limits that are no higher than Stardust, or Caesars Palace, or even Binions (yes, Binions) limits from the 80's. Which means, given the 3 1/2 to 1 or 4 to 1 real-money ratio then to now, that Circa's limits are actually real, real small compared to limits in the 80's and early 90's. The Stardust, for example, was allowing several times as much football action per game as Circa does now, and that's a conservative estimate.

    Adios until July! I'll drop in when next I'm heading west.

    I'll leave the posting to the local geniuses.
    Last edited by redietz; 04-20-2023 at 05:43 AM.

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