Since jbjb mentioned the Piggies thread over at WoV I went over and read it. That thread has been there for over a year and no one over there has done any kind of real analysis of the game. I was surprised at Darkoz' lack of knowledge on the subject. I would have figured a game like Piggies would have been a no brainer for the "most feared AP on the east coast." But that's not the case.
So anyways I still will collect stats on a game to a certain point. But I cut it off earlier than I used to. I'm smelling the roses more these days.
There are 7 triggers in the game:
Trigger the blue pig alone.
Trigger the yellow pig alone.
Trigger the red pig alone.
Trigger the yellow and red pig together.
Trigger the blue pig and yellow pig together.
Trigger the blue pig and red pig together.
Trigger the blue, yellow and red pig together.
Triggering the yellow pig alone, or triggering the red pig alone, or triggering yellow and red together does not end the play.
The play continues until 1 of 4 things occur:
You trigger the blue pig alone.
You trigger the blue pig and yellow pig together.
You trigger the blue pig and red pig together
You trigger the blue, yellow and red pig together.
Once one of these 4 things occurs the play is over and you have to live with the consequences. The reason is because the blue pig will reset to 9.
The objective of this game is to catch blue pig/yellow pig or catch blue/yellow/red. Because that is where the big payoffs are.
I lump the other two triggers, catching blue pig alone, or catching blue/red as part of the main game payback.
This is based on a small sample space, just 37 plays where I'm playing a blue 20 or higher. In those 37 plays I've caught the blue/yellow 7 times and the blue/yellow/red 5 times. That's 1 in 3 plays average.
So 2 out of 3 plays I either don't make money or lose some money.
But 1 out of 3 plays I make enough money to outrun the losing plays. At least that's the way it's been going.
The golden rule is quit each play when the blue pig resets to 9.