"Last Chance To Get Even" sign along the I-15

[Alan Mendelson]

I'm sorry, but to Arci and quahaug -- you can throw in as many side issues as you want but the facts about craps are these:

1. Every bet is its own individual game. If for example you are betting a place bet on 5 your bet is simply this: you will hit a 5 before a 7. That is the only decision.

2. The pass bet is an individual bet. If before a point is set, you win on 7 or 11, and you lose on 2, 3, 12. If the comeout bet is another number then if you repeat that number before you roll a 7 you win, or if you roll a 7 first you lose.

There are no overall odds for the bets on the table. Each bet has its own individual odds.

Now video poker:

1. A bet at video poker could lose or it could win various amounts based on the combination of cards dealt and drawn. It is a more complex game.

2. While each hand bet in video poker is an individual bet, the overall payback on the game varies with the paytable and the number of hands played. The payback of video poker depends on a multitude of hands played since no one payback will give you, for example, 99.5% or 99.2%.

Arc wrote this: "So, the return of a pass bet is 98.6%. That is NOT the return on a single bet. In a VP game there are also multiple outcomes. It just turns out it might be 10-15 outcomes rather than 2."

This is not right, because Arc is not using the proper definitions. The return of the pass line bet is either 100% or it is zero -- you either win it or you don't -- and the passline bet is always paid as an even-money bet. No matter what the point is, if you bet $5 on the passline you will win $5 when the point is made, or you will lose the $5 bet. The house advantage or edge is 1.4%. There is no phrase in craps about "the return" being 98.6%. This term does not exist in craps. You are creating something that does not exist. Again, the return is either 100% or it is zero -- you either win or lose.

For the place bets and exotic bets on the craps table, the return or payoff will vary with the bet. For example, a place bet on the 6 will pay 7 for 6. While the odds on the point of 6 will pay 6 for five. The pay on the one roll bet on 12 will pay 30 to 1 OR 30 for 1 depending on the casino. There is no term for "return" on a bet, unlike 9/6 Jacks which has a 99.5% return.

In craps there is no way to figure or compute a return. But you can figure the advantage or "edge" that the house has on each and every bet.

The rest of the statement regarding VP is just more of his gibberish and has nothing to do with comparing video poker to craps.

[quahaug]

Alan, the return in any casino game is a function of house edge but the concept is irrelevent if you only place one bet in craps vp bj or any other game.

[quahaug]

The return on a pass line bet is 1.4% and it goes to the casino, not the player.

[Alan Mendelson]

The return on a pass line bet is 1.4% and it goes to the casino, not the player.

The return is not the house advantage or edge. Or I am speaking a different language on a different planet.

Please look at this page on the Wizard of Odds site: http://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/ You will not find the word or concept "return."

It does not exist in craps.

[quahaug]

You are speaking a different language on this planet.

[Alan Mendelson]

You are speaking a different language on this planet.

Please let the Wizard of Odds know as well as every other author of craps books. Or better yet, quote me one page -- from any credible source -- that lists the "return" for the passline bet at craps, or the "return" for playing the game of craps (similar to the return of 99.5% for playing 9/6 Jacks or Better).

And one more question: if the game of craps has a return, similar to 99.5% for jacks or better, what is the return for playing craps? Please state the percentage and how you determined it. I might learn something.

[arcimede$]

Alan, each individual bet in craps is like an individual bet in video poker. It stands alone and has a return based on all possible outcomes. No craps bet returns the effective return of the game, just like VP. When I press deal on a VP machine all outcomes are possible. When I make a craps bet all outcomes are possible as well. I think where you are getting confused is all possible outcomes in a craps bet are always available until the end whereas in VP the number of possible results changes after you select cards. However, this is simply a variation in how the process of the game unfolds.

A pass bet or any other craps bet are like different VP games. The pass bet could be compared to JOB and the "5" bet to DDB. They have different possible outcomes which changes the average return of the bet. Again,a the craps bet is simpler than the VP bet in that there are fewer possible outcomes, but that does not change the fact that you DON'T end up with every possible outcome in any single game.

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan, each individual bet in craps is like an individual bet in video poker. It stands alone and has a return based on all possible outcomes. No craps bet returns the effective return of the game, just like VP. When I press deal on a VP machine all outcomes are possible. When I make a craps bet all outcomes are possible as well. I think where you are getting confused is all possible outcomes in a craps bet are always available until the end whereas in VP the number of possible results changes after you select cards. However, this is simply a variation in how the process of the game unfolds.

A pass bet or any other craps bet are like different VP games. The pass bet could be compared to JOB and the "5" bet to DDB. They have different possible outcomes which changes the average return of the bet. Again,a the craps bet is simpler than the VP bet in that there are fewer possible outcomes, but that does not change the fact that you DON'T end up with every possible outcome in any single game.

This will surprise you, Arc: I agree with you. So now, please, tell me this: With all of the different payoffs in video poker, you are still able to come up with an overall "return" such as 99.5% in Jacks or Better. So, what is the "return" on a game of craps?

Let me add another wrinkle in the problem for you. A player elects not to take a payout, and instead chooses to "parlay" the bet, or press the bet. How do you figure your "return" now? Or, a player who only had been betting 6 and 8 and the passline, decldes to use the payout on an 8 to place a bet on the 5. What does that do to the return?

[arcimede$]

This will surprise you, Arc: I agree with you. So now, please, tell me this: With all of the different payoffs in video poker, you are still able to come up with an overall "return" such as 99.5% in Jacks or Better. So, what is the "return" on a game of craps?

Let me add another wrinkle in the problem for you. A player elects not to take a payout, and instead chooses to "parlay" the bet, or press the bet. How do you figure your "return" now? Or, a player who only had been betting 6 and 8 and the passline, decldes to use the payout on an 8 to place a bet on the 5. What does that do to the return?

Alan, each bet in craps is a different game. Just like I stated above. If you change the type of bet that is like changing the game in VP from JOB to DB or NSUD or whatever. A different game with different outcomes and a different average return. So, whenever one game ends and you make another decision it's just a new game. Think of it like switching from BP to DDB on a multiple denomination machine. Ask yourself what the return is when you do that.

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan, each bet in craps is a different game. Just like I stated above. If you change the type of bet that is like changing the game in VP from JOB to DB or NSUD or whatever. A different game with different outcomes and a different average return. So, whenever one game ends and you make another decision it's just a new game. Think of it like switching from BP to DDB on a multiple denomination machine. Ask yourself what the return is when you do that.

Then you agree with me (because I said this earlier) that you cannot determine the "return" on the game of craps. Which is why no one ever states that there is a "return" playing craps and they can only discuss the "edge" or "house advantage" on the individual bets.

And as I wrote above in post #15 of this thread: "Each bet on the table is an independent bet even though there may be several bets on the table made at the same time. Each bet is resolved independently, even if one throw can resolve them all. And each bet is paid independently or not paid depending on the throw of the dice.

Each bet is always paid independently according to the odds of that independent bet."

[arcimede$]

Then you agree with me (because I said this earlier) that you cannot determine the "return" on the game of craps. Which is why no one ever states that there is a "return" playing craps and they can only discuss the "edge" or "house advantage" on the individual bets.

Well, it could be done if you specify how many games of each type of bet you are going to make. So, no I don't agree with you.

As you should understand now, the same holds for the game of video poker. Until you specify a particular VP game or games and the number of hands of each, you cannot come up with a return.

You've been claiming that VP and craps are fundamentally different. They aren't.

[Alan Mendelson]

Never mind Arc. I know you will never admit that you're wrong. And it appears you never can admit that I can be right.

You can figure a return on every video poker game and every video poker game has a stated return because every video poker game is played the same way: you are dealt five cards and you play the hand.

You cannot figure a return on the game of craps because the game of craps is made up of individual bets, and the individual bets can be played differently by different players.

I'm not going to go around in circles with you anymore.

[Rob.Singer]

Bingo! Alan. Why do you think arci is here when he can't argue in his name anymore after being tossed for good from vpFree for calling Dancer names because HE wouldn't buy into arci's made up BS! Truth is, while arci hangs every hat he has on living, eating, and dreaming about video poker, that same item has ruined his life far beyond that which could come close to being comprehended by the normal player. Thus, the constant name-calling, lying, and disagreeing with the facts as if they were never presented to him--all in the name of trying to get back at the administrator of vpFree, me, Dancer, and now you for allowing him to expose his lies and neurosis on yet another gaming forum.

Entertainment? Not even close. Watching someone create their own retribution for their adversaries is a sight to behold! So isn't knowing the pain he goes thru whenever mentioning his permanent ban from vpFree. Oh what a defeat that was! And oh, how sweet it was for the thousands of members who supported....and couldn't wait for....his banishment.

[arcimede$]

Never mind Arc. I know you will never admit that you're wrong. And it appears you never can admit that I can be right.

First you have to be right. It's you who won't admit you are wrong. Look, none of this is particularly hard to understand. Sorry if you can't work it out.

You can figure a return on every video poker game and every video poker game has a stated return because every video poker game is played the same way: you are dealt five cards and you play the hand.

But everyone does NOT play every hand the same. Some rather slow folks even call their poor choices "special plays".

You cannot figure a return on the game of craps because the game of craps is made up of individual bets, and the individual bets can be played differently by different players.

Yup, just like VP. The listed return of any VP game assumes optimal play. No one plays perfectly so you can't really predetermine the return of a game for any individual VP player either.

I'm not going to go around in circles with you anymore.

Typical. When you know you're wrong you just walk away.

[Rob.Singer]

Yup, a sight to behold! More line item vetoeing. The pressure must really be building up....and in such a righteous way.

[Alan Mendelson]

Rob, he's admitted he can't answer the questions because there is no right answer to the questions because his entire belief is bogus.

My first question to him: "What is the "return" on a game of craps?" His response: "Well, it could be done if you specify how many games of each type of bet you are going to make." He attempts to wiggle out of giving an answer with a lame reason about specifying the number of games (bets) made. Is there such a condition in figuring the return on any game of video poker? Of course not. Arc himself will tell you that the return on 9/6 Jacks or Better is 99.5% whether you play one hand or a million hands and no matter the denomination. Arc himself will tell you that the return on 8/5 Bonus is 99.2% whether you play one hand or a million hands and no matter the denomination. Yet he tries to wiggle an excuse about his contention about craps having a "return" because it would vary with the bets made.

Well, it is because there are so many bets made and how the bets are made and what the players do with payoffs, that there is no such thing as a "return" for the game of craps. There are returns (if you want to call it that) for each bet because each bet has an edge (or no edge in the case of odds) but there is no "return" for the overall game. It is a concept that does not exist for the game. Yet Arc contends "it could be done if you specify how many games of each type of bet you are going to make."

Nowhere, in any gaming book, manual, discussion or article -- and no where in any casino advertising -- is a "return" on the game of craps discussed. Yet the return on video poker machines and even slot machines is openly discussed.

Trust me on this one: if there were such a thing as a "return" on the game of craps, the casinos would advertise it and adjust it so that they could get a competitive advantage over their competitors. I am sure that Caesars would love to advertise it had a 99% return on craps which beat Bellagio's 98% return on craps. But such advertising does not exist because there is no such thing as a return on craps.

Craps is a game made up of individual bets with each bet having a particular chance of winning or losing, with the house having an edge on every bet except for the odds, and each player has the ability to change not only the bet but how the winnings are used, so there is no way you can look at the long term or even the short term to homogenize the bets into any sort of "return."

Of course if Arc thinks he can come up with a "return" for playing craps, and with all of the 45+ different bets on a craps table (not including the exotic or patented bets, not including the presses, full presses, partial presses, not including the parlays and bet removals, and not including the changes of denominations per bet) then he should state the figure here. Let him set the record straight for everyone else in the world.

By the way, late Saturday night I'll be playing craps at Caesars. I'll let you know if they have a sign in the craps pit that advertises the "return" of the game. LOL

[redietz]

Alan,

I think you're missing the point here regarding video poker. The casinos advertise return "based on perfect play." Now you can figure out the best craps bet at each property and call that "perfect play." Right?

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan,

I think you're missing the point here regarding video poker. The casinos advertise return "based on perfect play." Now you can figure out the best craps bet at each property and call that "perfect play." Right?

Another bogus thought. There is no "perfect play" in craps. It is a game of chance, unless, redietz, you believe in dice control. Do you believe in dice control? (Hint: there is no such thing as dice control. There may be dice influencing... maybe.)

Again, I ask you redietz, if you believe in "perfect play" at craps, what is the "return" at craps for this "perfect play"? LOL. Ridiculous.

And if it is a matter of finding the best craps bet, you still haven't answered the question about defining the return for the game of craps, have you? The question is, what is the return for the game of craps that Arc insists can be determined? Determine it, please.

[Alan Mendelson]

Quetion for redietz: You're a poker player. What is the return for playing at a $100 buy in, no limit hold'em game? Is that a universal return that can be applied to other times you play or anyone else plays? Why or why not? If you can tell me that you can define the return --and that return will apply to all players whenever you or they sit down to play a $100 buy-in game of Texas Hold'em, I will concede that there is a defined return for playing the game of craps.

[redietz]

I know nothing about craps, other than that it's a good game to accumulate comps. But you said in the case of an odds bet that there was no edge. That would seem to fit the definition then, of perfect play. But no casino is motivated to push people towards playing the craps wager with the best return, so that would explain why they do not do so. Now is there a logical fallacy here?