"Last Chance To Get Even" sign along the I-15

[Alan Mendelson]

Since you don't know about how to play craps... the odds bet is only available for the pass bet, the don't pass, the come bet and the don't come bet after a number or "point" is established. There are no "odds" bets on placing the 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 and 10. There are no "odds" bets on the 7 or the horn numbers of 2, 3, 11, 12. There are no "odds" bets on hardways, or the various proposition bets such as "hop bets," or "any craps" or "world" bets.

The "free odds" bets or "odds bets" are restricted so the casino can make money. Craps is a negative expectation game -- period. There is no such thing as "expert play" unless you are a magician with the dice. Those of us who play craps try to be magicians, but so far no one has the title of "master dice magician."

By the way, craps is not a good game for accumulating comps. When you play craps you are at the mercy of the floorman or pit critters who must accurately record your bets and report them. Unlike slots and video poker where there is a computer to track your coin-in, table games such as craps are subject to wide swings in reporting. My classic example is when I spent a weekend playing craps at one casino in Vegas... at least 12 hours at the tables over the course of a weekend, and I was "recorded" for playing 90 minutes, and at a smaller than my actual average bet.

[arcimede$]

Rob, he's admitted he can't answer the questions because there is no right answer to the questions because his entire belief is bogus.

My first question to him: "What is the "return" on a game of craps?" His response: "Well, it could be done if you specify how many games of each type of bet you are going to make." He attempts to wiggle out of giving an answer with a lame reason about specifying the number of games (bets) made. Is there such a condition in figuring the return on any game of video poker? Of course not. Arc himself will tell you that the return on 9/6 Jacks or Better is 99.5% whether you play one hand or a million hands and no matter the denomination. Arc himself will tell you that the return on 8/5 Bonus is 99.2% whether you play one hand or a million hands and no matter the denomination. Yet he tries to wiggle an excuse about his contention about craps having a "return" because it would vary with the bets made.

Come on, Alan. I simply stated the facts. Sorry if you can't handle it. The very same logic holds for VP as for craps. And, as for your last assertion, it is also false. The return of any VP game is dependent on the strategy employed. Almost no one plays 9/6 JOB at 99.5% or 8/5 BP at 99.2%. Only a handful of people can achieve those kinds of results.

Have you always applied this kind of logic in all your thinking? I can only wonder at how you get along in life?

Well, it is because there are so many bets made and how the bets are made and what the players do with payoffs, that there is no such thing as a "return" for the game of craps. There are returns (if you want to call it that) for each bet because each bet has an edge (or no edge in the case of odds) but there is no "return" for the overall game. It is a concept that does not exist for the game. Yet Arc contends "it could be done if you specify how many games of each type of bet you are going to make."

Alan, that is just a simple mathematical statement. I can only wonder at how anyone can claim it's not true. Did you take high school math?

Nowhere, in any gaming book, manual, discussion or article -- and no where in any casino advertising -- is a "return" on the game of craps discussed. Yet the return on video poker machines and even slot machines is openly discussed.

Trust me on this one: if there were such a thing as a "return" on the game of craps, the casinos would advertise it and adjust it so that they could get a competitive advantage over their competitors. I am sure that Caesars would love to advertise it had a 99% return on craps which beat Bellagio's 98% return on craps. But such advertising does not exist because there is no such thing as a return on craps.

There is no such thing as an individual return on VP either, you have to specify exactly what game you are playing (and to be precise, the strategy as well) ... you know, just like in craps ... you have to specify what bet you are making. Keep scrambling around. This stuff is simple math applied to a simple game. All you are accomplishing by denying it is making yourself look foolish.

[quahaug]

The wizard has return on every craps, roulette, keno, ect. bet in the casino. Nothin' to it. I'm sure you could combine every bet on the felt and come up with a total return.

[arcimede$]

The wizard has return on every craps, roulette, keno, ect. bet in the casino. Nothin' to it. I'm sure you could combine every bet on the felt and come up with a total return.

I just checked the wizard's information. It is all there. He even has a big table where everything is laid out in one place. A table listing many VP games and the returns would be the equivalent for video poker.

[Rob.Singer]

I recently listened to the GWAE show from the Internet that's on some obscure LV AM station & hosted by both the wizard & Dancer. I trust what wizard says and writes, because, having met him and after several hours of intense discussions, he just isn't capable of dealing BS. This comes across clearly when you hear the two of them banter back & forth. Michael has all the facts and sounds confident, while Dancer can't help it when his nervous, gimpy voice comes to the forefront by all the stuff he says that's either conjecture, bragging, or condescending to his audience.

[arcimede$]

while Dancer can't help it when his nervous, gimpy voice comes to the forefront by all the stuff he says that's either conjecture, bragging, or condescending to his audience.

The envy just flows and flows. Poor wheels just can't help himself. He so wanted to be Bob Dancer.

[Alan Mendelson]

The wizard has return on every craps, roulette, keno, ect. bet in the casino. Nothin' to it. I'm sure you could combine every bet on the felt and come up with a total return.

Here's the problem with this quahaug: in craps you win one bet at a time, but you lose them all at one time if you are a "right way" bettor. If you are a wrong way bettor, it is the opposite -- you lose one bet at a time and you can win them all at a time. So using the payouts for the various bets on the craps table, how do you figure the two situations I just presented as one return?

Again, you can't. Why are you and Arc trying to create something that does not exist? There is no such thing as a total return on the game of craps. And Arc, it doesn't matter that there are various returns for different play levels whether it be optimum or non-optimum. In video poker there are total returns, aren't there? In craps there isn't.

It is this manufacturing of facts -- your claim of a total return for the game of craps -- which makes me doubt your other assertions. What else have you created?

edited to add: And I forgot another reason why an overall return cannot be figured for craps. While the "odds bet" for pass line and come bets is paid at "true odds" (therefore no house advantage) the odds bets for don't pass and don't come are paid at the REVERSE of true odds.

Example: Pass line point is 6 and true odds are paid 6 to 5. But for the don't pass bettor, if the 7 comes before the 7, the odds on don't pass 6 are paid at 5 to 6.

Earlier I asked redietz, a poker player, to tell me if he could figure the overall return for playing live poker. That is as impossible as it is for playing craps.

And earlier I said if there were a way to figure the overall return for craps, the casinos would advertise it, and they would improve their returns as a competitive measure to lure gamblers. They don't advertise the return on the game of craps. Period.

I also challenged Arc to come up with a return on the game of craps. Please do go through the exercise and you will see for yourself that you can't.

[arcimede$]

I also challenged Arc to come up with a return on the game of craps. Please do go through the exercise and you will see for yourself that you can't.

Alan, I challenge you to come up with a return for the game of Video Poker.

See the problem? The name refers to generic game which consists of multiple specific types of games. Each type of bet in craps is like each type of video poker game. You CAN come up with a return when you specify the type. But then I already explained this to you 12 ways to Sunday and you continue to spew nonsense. Good grief.

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan, I challenge you to come up with a return for the game of Video Poker.

Challenge accepted. Here it is for 9/6 Jacks Or Better: http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-...cks-or-better/

Now, show me a "return" for the game of craps?

You are now using a wiggle to say that the game of craps is made up of multiple games. It's made up of multiple bets which are played as if they were unique games, but it is all the game of craps. You don't walk up to a craps table and say "I want to play the place-the-5 game." And if you did you would look very silly.

You are silly, Arc. You're a good guy, but you're silly. By the way, is this your "wiggle" in the video?

[arcimede$]

Challenge accepted. Here it is for 9/6 Jacks Or Better: http://wizardofodds.com/games/video-...cks-or-better/

Fail. I never said a word about jacks or better let alone a given pay table. Better luck next time.

You see if 9/6 JOB defined "video poker" then there would be no such thing as DDB or DB or BP or FPDW or NSUD or OEJs or .... Since these games exist and people refer to them as "video poker" games then your answer cannot be correct.

You should know better than to try and pull a fast one. Only makes you look bad.

[Alan Mendelson]

Dance. Weave. Bobble. Wiggle. (Sent via smart phone.)

[quahaug]

The return on a pass line bet is 98.59%. The return on "any 7" is 83.33%.ect. Simple. The return on a single number in roulette is 94.74%. In the long term the casino will make money, cause like Rob says the long term is only for the casino, not the player. Its interesting that the only skill games in the casino, vp and blackjack have the lowest house edge and the games that require no skill have the highest. I don't believe sports betting or live poker are "casino games" in the traditional sense.

[Alan Mendelson]

You nailed it quahaug which is why I play so little craps now. In nearly 15 years of craps play only twice did I ever leave a table with a profit of $5K or more.

[redietz]

I have no idea what you were/are trying to accomplish with this line of semi-reasoning, Alan. Clearly 9/6 J or B is not "video poker." It's one subset, one option -- like any particular bet in craps. And what's with this notion that if Arci has flawed responses to one question, his answers to other questions are problematic? Ye Gods, if you applied that to yourself, we couldn't trust a word you say, given the math difficulties.

The idea that casinos would advertise return rates to make more money is also very weird. Hell, Bally's did the precise opposite a few years back, trumpeting "6/5 Return on Blackjack" up on their big sign. They actually advertised that they were offering worse return -- which shows you the disdain they have the intelligence of their players. It also shows what kind of players they want.

So where this thread went is a mystery. Why it went in this direction is also a mystery.

[arcimede$]

Dance. Weave. Bobble. Wiggle. (Sent via smart phone.)

The only question is whether you are just as deluded in all of your thinking.

[Alan Mendelson]

I have no idea what you were/are trying to accomplish with this line of semi-reasoning, Alan. Clearly 9/6 J or B is not "video poker." It's one subset, one option -- like any particular bet in craps. And what's with this notion that if Arci has flawed responses to one question, his answers to other questions are problematic? Ye Gods, if you applied that to yourself, we couldn't trust a word you say, given the math difficulties.

The idea that casinos would advertise return rates to make more money is also very weird. Hell, Bally's did the precise opposite a few years back, trumpeting "6/5 Return on Blackjack" up on their big sign. They actually advertised that they were offering worse return -- which shows you the disdain they have the intelligence of their players. It also shows what kind of players they want.

So where this thread went is a mystery. Why it went in this direction is also a mystery.

What I find really ironic is that I am discussing craps with two guys who admit that they don't play it and really aren't familiar with the game of craps.

You redietz and Arc are now suggesting that the game of craps is made up of individual games, much like the universe of video poker is made up of different games such as bonus, JOB, aces and faces, double bonus, deuces wild, etc. And this is partially my fault because in an earlier post I explained that the game of craps is made up of individual bets which actually function as their own game within a game. My mistake. In trying to explain to you how complex the game of craps is and how it is impossible to figure a "return" on the game of craps, you guys have turned that into some argument that craps has different games within games and then you argue that "video poker" also doesn't have an overall return for all games.

Well, yes, you are correct. The overall universe of video poker games does not have an overall return -- if you want to look at it that way. And each individual game of video poker does have a particular return. We agree.

If you want to apply this logic to the game of craps, because the game of craps is made up of unique bets, then be my guest. But please, do not belly up to a craps table and announce to the dealers that you want to play the game called "place the five" because there is no such game as "place the five." You can place the five as a bet but it's a bet within the game of craps.

Guys, you are trying to apply factors in video poker to craps... and you can't. Jacks or Better, for example, is a type of game in the universe of video poker. Placing the 5, or betting the "no five" which might be played as if they are separate games are all part of the game of craps.

Now if you want to start redefining the game of craps, please -- be my guest. In fact, maybe you can sell the casinos on a new game and you can call it "simple craps." It's a craps game with only one bet. A shooter throws two dice and if he throws a 7 or 11 he immediately wins. If he throws a 2, 3 or 12 he immediately loses. If he throws another number he must repeat that number before a 7 shows. There is no other bet on the "simple craps" table. And you know what guys? You can honestly say that "the game of simple craps" has a return of 98.59%. And you can probably round that out to a return of 99% and put the simple craps table (it can be smaller that a traditional table) right by the slot machines under the sign that says "99% Return."

(Note to casinos: if you like my idea, I would appreciate a payment, fee, or honorarium as a token of your appreciation. This game can be played with one dealer, no floorman or "base dealers" needed and your ROI could be high since this game would move quickly since the average shooter throws the dice 5 times before a 7-out, and action will not be slowed by payouts on the 35+ other bets on the table. Whether or not you allow odds depends on how "simple" you want your "Game of Simple Craps" to be.)

[Rob.Singer]

Telling redietz he's not really familiar with something is one thing; telling arci that is another. One will actually think about it for a bit; the other? Why, he'll think you don't really believe he's a "know-it-all" and "tested genius" And with the life he now has, he really NEEDS everyone to think he's special....if only for a moment or two!

[arcimede$]

Well, yes, you are correct. The overall universe of video poker games does not have an overall return -- if you want to look at it that way. And each individual game of video poker does have a particular return. We agree.

Good, it's nice to see you can admit you were wrong.

[Alan Mendelson]

Good, it's nice to see you can admit you were wrong.

This must be a great day for you, Arc. Let's make it a greater day: please tell me the "return" for playing the game of craps that you claim the game of craps has? Or, if you can't figure it out yourself, please show me where someone else has stated the return for the game of craps?

[Rob.Singer]

This must be a great day for you, Arc. Let's make it a greater day: please tell me the "return" for playing the game of craps that you claim the game of craps has? Or, if you can't figure it out yourself, please show me where someone else has stated the return for the game of craps?

He has days there that can be considred "great"?