Ainsworth Must Hit By Progressives

[Knucklehead]

It’s well known the River Dragons and it’s clones will run their MHB jackpot all the way to the 5K before hitting. How about Ainsworth machines like Thunder Cash, Panda King and their clones? They feature MHBs that go to 5K, 8K or 10K. I have seen some get relatively high and the APs started circling. On the other hand I saw a lady hit one somewhere in the 9,500s and another hit in the 9,700s. So these don’t seem gaffed like the AGS machines. Anyone know the +EV entry point for these?

[mickeycrimm]

They are random compared to River Dragons. Since a 10K resets to 9000 the average hit is 9500. Its a very slow meter on these 10K's, .15% or $6.67 to move the meter one penny. Easy enough to calculate the payback percentage of the meter itself:

Average hit is 9500 so the meter must move 500. Multiple that by 667 to get the total wager, 333,500. Divide the average hit, 9500 by 333,500 and the payback of the meter is 2.85%. The 10k's I'm familiar with have a 93% to 95% overall payback.

So if it's 93% then you just subtract 3% to get a 90% return until you hit the meter. If you enter the game when the meter is at 9700 then the average hit would be 9850. So moving the meter by 150 takes a 100,050 wager.

9850 divided by 100,050 = 9.84%. Add that to the 90% main game return and you are just about at breakeven. A 95% overall game would by well positive at 9700.

The pro 10K players have told me they don't guess at the payback. Requesting them to activate the speed stop will get you a look at the payback screen. Or putting in 3 hundred dollar bills then calling them over and saying you think you put 4 hundred dollars bill in they will have to go into the screens and you get a look at the payback screen.

The competition for the plays has always been fierce around the 10K's. They have me way outcompeted because I refuse to play so low. Some guys will play as low as 99% just to get the mail. Screw that. I don't like obligating myself to having to make regular visits to any casino anyway.

Never take for granted what the meter speed is on any given machine. Always, always clock the speed to verify.

[Ozzy]

They are random compared to River Dragons. Since a 10K resets to 9000 the average hit is 9500. Its a very slow meter on these 10K's, .15% or $6.67 to move the meter one penny. Easy enough to calculate the payback percentage of the meter itself:

Average hit is 9500 so the meter must move 500. Multiple that by 667 to get the total wager, 333,500. Divide the average hit, 9500 by 333,500 and the payback of the meter is 2.85%. The 10k's I'm familiar with have a 93% to 95% overall payback.

So if it's 93% then you just subtract 3% to get a 90% return until you hit the meter. If you enter the game when the meter is at 9700 then the average hit would be 9850. So moving the meter by 150 takes a 100,050 wager.

9850 divided by 100,050 = 9.84%. Add that to the 90% main game return and you are just about at breakeven. A 95% overall game would by well positive at 9700.

The pro 10K players have told me they don't guess at the payback. Requesting them to activate the speed stop will get you a look at the payback screen. Or putting in 3 hundred dollar bills then calling them over and saying you think you put 4 hundred dollars bill in they will have to go into the screens and you get a look at the payback screen.

The competition for the plays has always been fierce around the 10K's. They have me way outcompeted because I refuse to play so low. Some guys will play as low as 99% just to get the mail. Screw that. I don't like obligating myself to having to make regular visits to any casino anyway.

Never take for granted what the meter speed is on any given machine. Always, always clock the speed to verify.

BEWARE, many of these are 89-90%. 93-95% are extremely rare nowadays.

[Knucklehead]

I agree Mickey on not entering too low. I’d rather be on the safe side and am ok missing a play because I see people taking them lower all the time, and some I know are APs or think they are.

Based on this I probably don’t take it until 9,800 or maybe 9,825. And I’d need 10K cash on me to know I can withstand the variance.

[smurgerburger]

I agree Mickey on not entering too low. I’d rather be on the safe side and am ok missing a play because I see people taking them lower all the time, and some I know are APs or think they are.

Based on this I probably don’t take it until 9,800 or maybe 9,825. And I’d need 10K cash on me to know I can withstand the variance.

I hate to be helpful but $10k is not enough. Even if you could eliminate all variance on the reels it would not be safe.

$20k depending on the theme and your bet size may be safe. $30k is safe imo with a reasonable bet size.

[Knucklehead]

I agree Mickey on not entering too low. I’d rather be on the safe side and am ok missing a play because I see people taking them lower all the time, and some I know are APs or think they are.

Based on this I probably don’t take it until 9,800 or maybe 9,825. And I’d need 10K cash on me to know I can withstand the variance.

I hate to be helpful but $10k is not enough. Even if you could eliminate all variance on the reels it would not be safe.

$20k depending on the theme and your bet size may be safe. $30k is safe imo with a reasonable bet size.

Very helpful thanks.

[mickeycrimm]

I have friends in Oklahoma and New Mexico with extensive experience on the 10K's. They say in that area they are all 93% to 95%. But like I said, they don't guess at the payback. They know exactly what it is.

I showed that the 93% game has a 90% return between meter hits.

The 95% version has a 92% return between meter hits.

An 89% version has an 86% return between meter hits. So 9790 would put the game at breakeven. Breakeven is no good. You need a win factor so you need one in the lower 9800's to have an advantage.

But the problem is people play these damn things way to low. Good luck finding one in the low 9800's. You always see a sucker that played to low sitting there spinning with a long face because he's in for more than it's going to pay.