Dan Druff's 2023-2024 NCAA Football picks

[Dan Druff]

Went 50-44-1, +6.40 units in my 95 picks last year in NCAA Football. That was my first season doing it. Not spectacular, but pretty good.

NCAA Basketball was a fail, and I won't be trying that again.


Here's my first 3 picks of the 23-24 season:

Massachusetts +35.5 at Auburn
Purdue vs Fresno State - Under 47
Louisiana Monroe +9 vs Army

[Dan Druff]

Colorado State vs Washington State - Under 54.5

[Dan Druff]

Also bet San Jose State +14.5 vs Oregon State on Sunday, which I forgot to post on this site, but posted on my PFA site.

So that makes me 1-4 to start the year, only winning LA Monroe. Ouch.

[AxelWolf]

Also bet San Jose State +14.5 vs Oregon State on Sunday, which I forgot to post on this site, but posted on my PFA site.

So that makes me 1-4 to start the year, only winning LA Monroe. Ouch.

NFL!!!

[redietz]

Also bet San Jose State +14.5 vs Oregon State on Sunday, which I forgot to post on this site, but posted on my PFA site.

So that makes me 1-4 to start the year, only winning LA Monroe. Ouch.

LOL. You lucky bastard!! Actually, I could make a case for ULM +10, the initial line.

Dan, I lost one game this week. I had Army teased to -1 1/2. That was a miraculous loss for me. How can you be up 13-3 with five minutes left and go multiple blitz on first down against a team that had done absolutely nothing against you for 55 minutes??? ULM ran a trap right up the middle, down 10 with five minutes left, to break a 60-yard run. Then Army, up three, converts third-and-long with a pass to midfield with three minutes left, and the kid prances around and fumbles the ball. Then you have a very questionable fade in the end zone that's called a TD. Brutal.

Army revamped its offense, which is terrible. It's a sin because they have their best defense in decades.

Also had Liberty Over teased to Texans/Ravens Over this week. Had Iowa State vs. Northern Iowa teased to UTSA vs. Houston. Had UNC moneyline and Toledo spread. Almost moneylined Toledo, which would have been heartbreaking. So off to a good start. But that Army teaser was a bad, bad loss.

[Dan Druff]

Well, hopefully I don't embarrass myself here, being 1-4 and making all these picks on Week 2:

Georgia Southern -7 -105 vs UAB (don't take if line goes to -7.5)

Texas Tech +195 vs Oregon (+6 ok)

Sam Houston +14 -114 vs Air Force (buy 0.5 points to get to +14)

Ball State +42 -110 at Georgia

Rice +8 -110 vs Houston (0.5 units)
Rice +265 vs Houston (0.5 units)

NC State +235 vs Notre Dame


Lots of variance here, as 2.5 of the 6 units bet are on +195 to +265 dogs.

[Dan Druff]

One more, starting soon:

Troy +15.5 at Kansas State (down to 14.5 ok)

[Dan Druff]

Crazy day.

Ball State +42 somehow tied lol. Great first quarter (tied), awful second (GA scored 31), and somehow still tied it overall.

Started out getting crushed with Troy and NC State not even coming close, so I was 0-2-1.

Then it looked really good for the other games, with Texas Tech up 27-18 in the 4th, Rice was up 28-0 in the 2nd quarter and 28-7 at halftime, and Sam Houston was tied 3-3 late (just needed to cover 14).

Then horrible coaching blew the Texas Tech lead and they lost 38-30. Was a lot closer actually, as they were up 30-28 in the final minute, gave up a FG, but quickly got close to FG range themselves before throwing an interception. Ugh.

Then Rice blew the lead, and they went to OT 28-28. Then Houston scored to lead 35-28, Rice tied it 35-35. Then in 2OT, Rice scored a TD, went for a 2 point conversion, failed, but got to redo thanks to a penalty. Then they converted. Houston then came back with their own TD, and BARELY missed completing the 2-point conversion. Game over, Rice wins 43-41. Wow.

Sam Houston fell behind 13-3 with time left and I thought I might get screwed, but that ended up being the final.

So....

Georgia Southern -7 -105 vs UAB - W +0.95 units
Texas Tech +195 vs Oregon - L -1.00 units
Sam Houston +14 -114 vs Air Force - W +0.88 units
Ball State +42 -110 at Georgia - TIED
Rice +8 -110 vs Houston (0.5 units) - W +0.45 units
Rice +265 vs Houston (0.5 units) - W +1.33 units
NC State +235 vs Notre Dame - L -1.00 units
Troy +15.5 at Kansas State - L -1.00 units

3-3-1, +0.61 units


GRAND TOTAL: 4-7-1, -2.48 units

[Dan Druff]

Eight spot of NCAAF picks today

If you have big balls, parlay it

Mine aren't that big

Charlotte +205 vs Georgia State
Florida +177 vs Tennessee
Iowa -28 -110 vs Western Michigan
Northwestern +17 -110 at Duke
Miami OH +14 -110 at Cincinnati
New Mexico -2.5 -110 vs New Mexico State
Purdue vs Syracuse - Under 56.5 -108
Houston vs TCU - Over 64 -110

[Dan Druff]

Results:

Charlotte +205 vs Georgia State - L -1.00 units
Florida +177 vs Tennessee - W +1.77 units (easily!)
Iowa -28 -110 vs Western Michigan - W +0.91 units (barely)
Northwestern +17 -110 at Duke - L -1.00 units
Miami OH +14 -110 at Cincinnati - W +0.91 units (outright!)
New Mexico -2.5 -110 vs New Mexico State - L -1.00 units
Purdue vs Syracuse - Under 56.5 -108 - W +0.93 units (barely)
Houston vs TCU - Over 64 -110 - L -1.00 units

So that's 4-4. Florida +177 was a decisive victory, which was nice. I did have two close, last-minute wins in the Purdue under and Iowa spread. Miami OH could have been a monster win if I had moneyline. But I bet spread.

All of it shook out to a very similar result to last week. I won 0.52 units.

That takes my overall record to 8-11, -1.96 units

[kewlJ]

Iowa -28 -110 vs Western Michigan - W +0.91 units (barely)

"Barely" doesn't begin to describe what occurred in this game. I was on the other end, having taken Western Mich +28. I thought 28 point were too many for a team with a suspect offense to cover.

Western Michigan dominated the first half, but a late turnover lead to a TD that put Iowa up 14-10 at halftime. Still in excellent shape getting 28 points. Iowa dominated the second half with Western Michigan scoring no points and repeatedly unable to move the ball and giving it back to Iowa. But Iowa's slow methodical offense still gave me a good chance to pull this one out. With the score 31-10 with 5 minutes left Iowa was driving inside the 10 year line driving for a TD that would make this game a push for me. When Western Mich stiffened and held them to a FG and 34-10 lead, I figured I had won as if Iowa got the ball back it would be time to take a knee.

Well Iowa did get the ball back with less than a minute left and instead of taking a knee, they threw 3 straight passes, to score a TD with less than 30 seconds left to cover. As sports bettors, we occasionally, or frequently are involved in games that are classified as "bad beats". This one was a little irritating because passing 3 times in the final minute with a 24 point lead, so you can drive down the field and score a touchdown, is sort of bad sportsmanship. 99.9% of teams would have taken a knee. Almost felt like Iowa coaches had some incentive to cover the spread.

[Dan Druff]

Let's try to get above water here. Man can't eat on NFL alone.

Texas A&M -9 -110 vs Auburn
Cal +20 -109 at Washington
Sam Houston +11 -110 at Houston
Florida Intl +10 -110 vs Liberty
Oregon -21 -110 vs Colorado
Ball State +185 vs GA Southern
Wake Forest v Georgia Tech - under 58.5 -110
Fresno State v Kent state - under 47.5 -110

[AxelWolf]

Man can't eat on NFL alone.

That's crazy to say. Assuming you have an advantage on NFL then OFC you can. Why would you ever waste your time on something you're -EV on(?) when you can get unlimited action in on the NFL?

[kewlJ]

Axel, I don't think most of us are doing it the way you do, using a very large number of sportsbooks and just writing off the ones that stiff you as cost if business.

Most of us find a handful (at most) sportsbooks, that we trust with honest timely payoffs, often recommended by friends that have had good experiences. So most of us don't have "unlimited" betting.

But I am glad this high volume approach is working for you.

[Dan Druff]

Texas A&M -9 -110 vs Auburn - WON +0.91
Cal +20 -109 at Washington - LOST (almost had last second comeback tie) -1.00
Sam Houston +11 -110 at Houston - LOST (big) -1.00
Florida Intl +10 -110 vs Liberty - LOST (big) -1.00
Oregon -21 -110 vs Colorado - WON (big) +0.91
Ball State +185 vs GA Southern - LOST (big) -1.00
Wake Forest v Georgia Tech - under 58.5 -110 - WON +0.91
Fresno State v Kent state - under 47.5 -110 - LOST -1.00

Total 3-5, -2.27 units

Grand total: 11-16, -4.23 units


I think I'm going to quit these big spread dogs, as I can't seem to get them right.

[Dan Druff]

Man can't eat on NFL alone.

That's crazy to say. Assuming you have an advantage on NFL then OFC you can. Why would you ever waste your time on something you're -EV on(?) when you can get unlimited action in on the NFL?

Too much variance. I've clearly been lucky in NFL. The question is how much of it has been luck.

[AxelWolf]

Man can't eat on NFL alone.

That's crazy to say. Assuming you have an advantage on NFL then OFC you can. Why would you ever waste your time on something you're -EV on(?) when you can get unlimited action in on the NFL?

Too much variance. I've clearly been lucky in NFL. The question is how much of it has been luck.

I'm expecting about the same results or better as last season. If you can't deliver I'm taking my business elsewhere and leaving a bad review.

[Dan Druff]

Western Michigan vs Ball State - Under 45 -110
Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan - Under 50.5 -110
Mississippi vs LSU - Over 67 -110
Troy +102 at Georgia State

[Dan Druff]

One more:

Northern Illinois +12.5 -110 at Toledo

[Dan Druff]

Whoops.

I switched two of the numbers when posting it up here

The E Michigan one was 45 (just lost)

The Ball State was 50.5