More Notes to Regnis: College Football

[redietz]

The ubiquity of line moves on college underdogs leads me to the obvious conclusion. Namely, that these are cartel/"group" moves based on program analyses of the length of the games being reduced by x number of plays, and this working in favor of the underdogs. Really, the only significant favorite move thus far this week is on UCLA, and I'm on board with that, having bet UCLA early with both a straight play and teaser.

Now, do I think these dog moves are wise? Not really. Last week, all of the major college moves got stomped, headlined by the Hawaii move versus Stanford. Plus San Jose State versus Oregon State and Colorado State versus Washington State. Who in their right mind is firing on Hawaii, SJState, and Colorado State if I can't? If I can't pull the trigger on these teams, who does?

I'm not sure I've seen this kind of across-the-board underdog betting wave before. I'm more interested in the who and the why of it than in the games themselves. But I did have the brains and dumb luck to wait on the chalk I like, so things worked out. I have the best of almost every line in which I'm involved. Even God forsaken Temple, which I have at +10, is getting love. Who (other than me) bets Temple in this spot? Temple down from +10 to +8 1/2 (with a +7 1/2 at DraftKings). There are some sick bastards out there. I feel obligated to hedge some if a -7 becomes available. It's a late game, so who knows? Maybe.

[regnis]

Thanks for info in these 2 posts.

I just got back today so my only action is KY. No other big hits since that one last week.

[The Boz]

Here are biggest moves via Circa.

There were a few large moves both ways. Of course I got Baylor at +7 (-105) instead of the hook and they shit the bed late, and pushed.

Could be worse, my buddy was all over Nebraska ML and spread along with Syracuse over, needing 1 2nd half TD after 52 first half points…..got a FG.

Hope all is well RED, I’ve been quiet because it’s mostly the same old, same old here.

[redietz]

Here are biggest moves via Circa.

There were a few large moves both ways. Of course I got Baylor at +7 (-105) instead of the hook and they shit the bed late, and pushed.

Could be worse, my buddy was all over Nebraska ML and spread along with Syracuse over, needing 1 2nd half TD after 52 first half points…..got a FG.

Hope all is well RED, I’ve been quiet because it’s mostly the same old, same old here.

I think Circa is kind of doing an old Stardust line move report, as some of the lines they are reporting may have been available for 10 minutes on site, but not really available in reality or offshore. For example, I saw no Utah line as reported here, and I'm betting within minutes of any first postings. They existed, but you couldn't really bet them.

The line move that blew me away was the move on FIU, which looked fucking terrible on offense for two games. That line moved so much, I teased the other way. The line actually closed -11, not the -12 1/2 listed there. I know. I waited and bet the other side.

Ouch.

I figured, what the hell, I like the game and it's like betting a super teaser with regular teaser odds. I liked the opening line. Thought it was appropriate.

Well, I was perplexed because it was evident I had the wrong side from the start. Really wrong. I could not believe FIU put up a 46. North Texas had looked defensively shabby versus Cal, but Cal I had figured as vastly improved, so I didn't read much into it.

That game cost me the most yesterday.

If Texans/Ravens goes Over 36 1/2 today, I make (a little) money for the week. I hedged about a third of my investment with Under 44.

I think the things that blew my mind most were Nevada at home getting slaughtered by Idaho and FIU putting a 46 on North Texas. You know life is interesting when there's a 6 point line move, you tease the other way, and you're not close to winning.