Rookie QB passing yards week 1

[The Boz]

3 Rookie first rounders starting today, so I thought I’d look at historical comparisons for passing yards. These bets are usually-115 so they suck from the start.

CJ Stroud Hou (vs Baltimore) O/U 197.5
Bryce Young Car (vs Atlanta) O/U 203.5
Richardson Indy (vs Jax) O/U 194.5

I pulled up some recent numbers that may be comparable in todays game as these are only rookies who started in Week 1

Cam Newton has the record of 422 in 2011
Trevor Lawrence 332 in 2021
Herbert 311 in 2020
K Murray 308 in 2019
Mac Jones 281 in 2021
Wentz 278 in 2016
Zach Wilson 258 in 2021
Sam Darnold 198 in 2018
Joe Burrow 193 in 2020

Some surprisingly high numbers there to me. In todays 3 games I like the under on Stroud & Richardson and over on Young. Others could believe the Texans and Colts as underdogs will fall behind and have to play catch-up. That’s why it’s called gambling.

[redietz]

Interesting, Boz.

I did a formal review for a partner of mine who is into private long-term ("keeper") high stakes fantasy leagues. I basically rank the players for his drafts and try to find sleepers and so on.

Richardson is not ready. If this were 20 years ago, they'd draft him and sit him for two seasons. Stroud, who I love, also would sit a year. Bryce Young, I think, was a terrible draft choice.

I would be wary of the Stroud Under. I think Houston will get tattooed, but the Ravens are unveiling a new offense, with new receivers, that may put Jackson in the top five QBs in terms of passing yards. Sounds unlikely, but they should look very different. If so, that game could get out of hand early and Stroud will either head to the bench or be winging it a lot late in the game.

I survived yesterday. Was involved in a bunch of the delayed games with teasers, so I had to limit my hedging because I had no idea if the first legs of teasers had won or lost by kickoff of the second games. I had Miami (OH) Pick, for example. Wound up with too much on North Texas -4 and not enough on USC -22. Whether I win or lose for the week probably depends on whether Texans/Ravens goes Over 36 1/2. We'll see. I have the equivalent of two wagers on that, so I will need to hedge by buying an Under 44 for a third or half of it.

As usual, I bet a ton yesterday. Will have that one total today and maybe one side.

I had bet Temple +10 when the line came out and bought back 60% of it with Rutgers -7. My point -- who, other than me, bets the living hell out of Temple? The line moved 2 1/2 points on a garbage game with minimal TV and no major injuries.

[redietz]

Well, that was ugly. I hedged the Texans/Ravens at Under 44 for 1/3 of the teaser Over, then hedged another 1/3 with 10 minutes left and the live total 38 1/2. Took a 1/3 bet beating to go with the 1/2 bet deficit Saturday.

I thought the total had a real good shot to fall between 36 1/2 and 44.