I'm changing my strategy for playing craps.

[Alan Mendelson]

I have been an active craps player for some 15 years, and after 15 years I've decided that it's a game that while a lot of fun it is also impossible to win.

Yes, I've whooped it up and yelled "hot dog" during hot rolls over what feels like thousands of times -- but despite the hot rolls, the long runs that a shooter has, the magic rolling of the bones, it seems that every casino visit ends the same way -- with losses at the craps table.

And I'm not alone. Don't believe me? You always see the smiles and hear the cheers coming from craps tables. But did you ever stop to see the players when they leave the craps tables? I'm sure that most if not all players leave unhappy and poorer.

Part of the problem is that craps is a "negative expectation game" and the players are expected to lose -- whether they are playing the right side or the don't side. I've seen darkside players get wiped out as frequently as the rest of us rightway players.

And I know there are players out there -- rightway and wrongway players -- who claim to be winners. Well, good for them and if you're one of them this does not apply to you.

This is what I'm going to do from now on when I play craps so that I can enjoy the whoopin' and hollerin' and the magical great rolls and the big wins but at the same time I am going to dramatically reduce my "exposure" to the constant run of daily losses.

From now on, I am going to play craps making only the passline bet at the table minimum and the "Fire Bet" which pays the jackpots if a shooter makes 4 or 5 or all 6 different points. This bet pays as much as $10,000 for a $10 bet.

Until now, I bet the passline with full odds, and placed all of the numbers across. I pressed my bets after my original bets were paid off. This is actually a conservative way to play because I avoid some of the most expensive and costly bets including the field, hop bets, hardway bets, horn bets and the other "middle of table" bets.

But even my "conservative" pass line bet with odds and placing the numbers was expensive and had a high cost and put me at a big risk to reward ratio.

For example, at a table with $10 minimum bets and the point is 6 with a maximum of 5X odds, your "investment" would look like this:

Passline $10 plus $50 odds

Place 4 $10
Place 5 $10
Place 6 It's the point, so we don't place it.
Place 8 $12 (the 6 and 8 are bet in units of $6 for the correct payoffs)
Place 9 $10
Place 10 $10

total cost of place bets: $52
total cost of passline with odds: $60
total exposure: $112

Now, consider this for a moment. When the point of 6 is established and I bet $52 across, plus bet full odds on the 6 for $50 I was actually exposing myself to a simultaneous loss of $112 if the next roll was a 7-out, but I could only win one bet at a time.

Here's what I could win with one bet at a time:

Place 4 $18
Place 5 $14
Place 8 $14
Place 9 $14
Place 10 $18

If the point of 6 is rolled before a 7 I would win as follows:

For the $10 on the passline, I would win even money $10
For the $50 odds money, I would win 6 to 5 which is $60
So the total win for the passline with odds would be $70

So putting that into perspective with the potential of a total loss if a 7 is thrown:

The $70 win for the passline with odds is 62% of my total exposure. That is actually a favorable risk/reward.

But for the place numbers, the bets represent a much smaller reward for the risk of losing the full $112.

For the place 4 and place 10 the $18 win is 16% of the money at risk.
For the place 5 and place 9 the $14 win is 12.5% of the money at risk.
For the place 8 (or place 6) the $14 win is 12.5% of the money at risk.

The reality is that most "shooters" will seven-out after throwing the dice 5 times including the come out roll and the last roll which is the 7-out. This means that I am likely to see only three payoffs which might mean a total of $42 collected on the $112 disbursement.

So what's my solution? I'm going to cut back on my bets. Some players only bet the 6 and/or the 8 and the passline because these bets have the lowest house advantage or edge.

I have an even more conservative plan: betting just the passline and the Fire Bet. I want the fire bet because if the shooter is on fire and has the monster roll of a lifetime, I want to be there to collect the $10,000 on a risky, high edge $10 Fire Bet. Gambling that $10 on the Fire Bet will keep a purpose for my whoopin' and hollerin'.

[arcimede$]

If I understand what you've been doing, you have turned a modestly negative game into a hugely negative game. It's no wonder you always lose.

It would be possible to figure out the approximate EV ... have you every done that?

[Alan Mendelson]

Arc, it's time for you to stop by a craps table and watch to see how the game is played. After you see how most players (not me) bet the game you will see that there is only one other way to play the game that offers the player a lower edge than my method -- the come bet with full odds method -- but it requires putting more money at risk and requires that each "number" must hit twice before a payout is made.

Come betting which has the lowest possible house edge also has a smaller chance of winning and puts the player at a greater chance of going bust. You have to know how the game is played to understand that.

As to your question about approximate EV... it's no secret about the math of craps: returns, edges, values, etc. Craps was fully understood years before the very first video poker RNG was made and fitted for a machine.

Do they have craps at your casinos in Minnesota? Even card craps might be played as they play craps in Vegas but with cards instead of dice.

[arcimede$]

No craps in Minnesota.

Now, you still didn't answer my question. What was the EV of your method of play? What is the EV of your new plan?

[Alan Mendelson]

What was the EV of your method of play? What is the EV of your new plan?

Well, Arc, this might surprise you. If you really want to know what my "expected value" is, please understand that I look at craps play this way: I expect to lose and not win, period. It's a tough game to beat. In fact, I don't know anyone personally who has really beaten the casinos at craps. I have never played with anyone at any casino who claims to have beaten the casinos playing craps. The only people who claim to beat the casinos have either written books, or courses, about craps or are selling them.

So I don't "expect" to win anything. But if I do it will be a heck of a lot more fun.

You have to understand something else. Im a small fry when I play craps. On Sunday I was at a table with a guy who was making a $2,000 bet on a single roll -- and he did it for each "come out roll." He was betting $500 on each of the hard ways -- 4, 6, 8 and 10 -- that the shooter would throw a hardway on the come out roll. I saw him lose that bet at least ten times -- that's $20K. And that was only a fraction of what he dumped at that table over the course of a couple of hours.

[Alan Mendelson]

By the way Arc, if you ever do get to see casino craps in action you might want to keep an eye out for players who attempt to influence their throw of the dice. This is what got me interested in playing craps.

The first time I played it was with my sister and brother-in-law who are devoted to the action that the craps game gives. After the first time I played, I started to "investigate" the game and found out about the belief/concept of "dice influencing" and "dice control" whose proponents say that with practice and skill they can help increase their chances of winning,

I don't believe it really works. But because craps is a random game, it doesn't do any damage to try to use a particular setting of the dice, and to use a controlled delivery and roll of the throw, and to use a soft bounce off the back wall. There is no damage to the game at all trying it, and who knows, maybe you can be the first true Tiger Woods or Sandy Koufax or Michael Jordan of the craps table?

In fact, there are hundreds if not thousands of players who try to influence the dice to beat an otherwise unbeatable game. Nothing wrong with trying it, is there? After all, you use certain skills when you play video poker, so why not try to use what skills you have when you play craps and shoot the dice.

By the way, there are also skills in betting. But until you've bellied up to a table (that's the traditional casino phrase for playing the game) we can't discuss skilled betting.

[arcimede$]

Alan, the fact you expect to lose at craps should not influence a decision to understand the EV of your method of play. If you can raise your EV from 95% to 99% you'll still lose, but you'll lose a lot less. That should be enough motivation.

[Alan Mendelson]

There;s a funny thing about playing craps. The players who stand to lose the most money, make the bets with the lowest house edge. Ironic, but true.

At the Riviera, the casino allows a player to make a passline or come bet for as little as ten dollars, and then they can bet "odds" of as much as 1,000 times the value of the flat bet. So, you bet $10 on the pass, and adding $10,000 odds. "Odds" have NO house advantage, and no player advantage either because they are paid at "true odds."

A friend of mine went to the Riv to play their new 1,000X odds because he figured the cost at only pennies. After the trip, he was about $100,000 poorer making bets that only cost him a few pennies. Im not sure how little the house edge is with 1,000-times odds. But with 100x odds the house edge is 0.021%.

Casino Royale on the Strip has 100x odds. I went there one night to hook up with a member of a craps forum I used to take part in. He came with a $25,000 bankroll betting $5 flat bets with $500 odds. I watched him lose all $25,000 in less than 90 minutes.

Yeah, the math is really the answer to the mysteries of casino gambling -- especially at craps.

I do like the simple math of video poker better. Example: when dealt 4 to the royal you have a 1 in 47 chance of drawing the royal card. I can deal with that. I can't deal with all the talk about "no house advantage bets" that end up costing people thousands of dollars.

[Alan Mendelson]

I had to make a quick business trip to Vegas Friday and stopped by Caesars for a little craps. Since this wasn't a "gambling trip" I decided to use my new strategy limiting my betting to a low pass line bet plus the "fire bet." I tried this for about a half dozen shooters and while they made a few passes which gave me some modest wins, no hit hit at least four different passes to get a fire bet payoff.

But when the dice came to me, I decided to bet the place numbers in addition to the fire bet. I hit five out of six different points and I had $10 on the fire bet for a $2500 bonus. Photo below. I needed the 8. The fifth point I made was the six, and on the next come out roll the 6 repeated, and a few more numbers and seven-out. Had I made the point of 8 the payday would have been $10,000.



My first point was a four, then the five, then the 9, then the 10 and then the 6. I tend to throw outside numbers. Some might think its because I use the "cross sixes" set but I just think it's just my luck.

[jatki]

I only play craps when I've lost at videopoker and I need a boost from being in a rowdy crowd. But it usually costs me even more.

I don't see anything wrong with Alan's system here because it looks to me like it makes the game more interesting, and since he's expecting to lose then who cares what the "ev" is? He could also win something unexpectedly big too. If you've got the cash, have fun!

[Count Room]

I just wanted to point out that when placing odds on Pass and Come bets...it is definitely a potential bankroll buster when trying to take full advantage of 10x or 100x odds. If you feel uncomfortable with this there is nothing wrong with taking 2x or 3x odds...In fact, there is a significant diminishing return of cutting the casino's advantage as you pile on more odds money.

EXAMPLE:
If I bet $50 on Pass and put $50 odds behind it I can cut the casino edge down from 1.4% to 0.7% (a 0.7% reduction)
If I put $100 behind I can cut the edge down to ~0.466%

Note here that the first $50 in odds cuts the house edge by 0.7%, but the second $50 only cuts the house edge by another 0.24%.

The diminishing returns become much worse beyond 10x odds, so it's worth noting that while it's wise to put odds on the numbers...it may not be worth the bankroll risk to overdo it since the house edge reduction for each extra unit in odds becomes significantly diminished pretty quickly.

[Alan Mendelson]

Count Room... my friend... your odds bet money does nothing to alter the casino's chance of winning. Even if you bet 1-thousand times odds the casino is more likely to win every bet you make. If you understand and accept that the house edge has nothing to do with the house's chance of winning your money then go ahead and bet all the odds money you like.

[Count Room]

Hmmm....I'm going to have to give that one some deep thought, Alan, LOL! (puts on beanie tinfoil hat to ponder it)...

I was simply balancing out immediate bankroll risk for a trip vs. long term house edge with my post.

No question about it when the dice are "hot" they're "hot"...same as for "cold/cold"


EDIT - If you're carrying a huge suitcase full of cash to the craps table my post would be irrelevant in that case. If I'm taking $500 or $1,000 to a $10 craps table then my post becomes a bit more relevant (at least to me).

[Alan Mendelson]

This is a serious issue and Ive seen too many players go bust because they are told there is "no house advantage" on the odds bet. There is also no player advantage on the odds bet. It's a wash. But in the meantime the house is more likely to win the "flat bet" and with it goes your odds money.

I was at Casino Royale on the Strip one night with a high roller friend who dumped $25-thousand in a half hour betting $5 flat bets with 100x odds.
I have another friend who went to the Riviera to "take advantage" of their 1000X odds and he lost $20,000.

Betting odds don't make you win. Betting odds only allows you to win more IF you win.

edited to add: I should note that even today, the average gambler at craps bets only 2X odds.

[Count Room]

I was at Casino Royale on the Strip one night with a high roller friend who dumped $25-thousand in a half hour betting $5 flat bets with 100x odds.
I have another friend who went to the Riviera to "take advantage" of their 1000X odds and he lost $20,000.

Betting odds don't make you win. Betting odds only allows you to win more IF you win.

edited to add: I should note that even today, the average gambler at craps bets only 2X odds.

Obviously your buddies has a bad run-in with craps variance. Losing $25k on $500 bets...50 passes down in a half hour? If he was a stickler for truly getting the best odds he would have gotten a minisculely better EV at putting those odds on 'Don't Pass'. How come he didn't do this? (I think there's like a 1/100th% improvement by taking "dont" over "pass"). It would be very hard to have 50 passes in a half hour working against you as a "don't" bettor because of all the time it takes to pay off cheering players, etc.

EDIT - I'm just a casual regular gambler like that 2x odds guy you mentioned, though I could go 5-10x odds.

DOUBLE EDIT - Now I'm getting a hankering to take up craps again, thanks Alan!

[Alan Mendelson]

Obviously your buddies has a bad run-in with craps variance. Losing $25k on $500 bets...50 passes down in a half hour?

Pass and come bets. He was an action player, so to speak.

But all of these "come bet / max odds" players have the same strategy and say the same thing, just like it says in the books: The more I bet on the odds, the lower the house edge. Well that low house edge means zip when they call seven-out.

[Count Room]

Well OK, your point is taken, Alan. You do have to win to win, yes!

One reason I am still ahead of craps is because of some hot rolls I had many years ago at lower stakes (pretty young back then).
I had a few rolls lasting 15 minutes, maybe 20?

Maybe we should bring this gal along on our next gambling trip? (LINK)

Grandma Showing Atlantic City's Hottest Craps Roll

[russkg]

Hi Allan. I just joined your board. I love craps too. I play craps for the fun (love the camaraderie) but have learned that in order to win, preserve bankroll until the hot roll appears. BIG wins I've experienced happened during those mysterious heaters and its our ability to recognize them and become aggressive. Conservative betting during those heaters results in conservative wins, The best crap players recognize the heater and are pressing, parlaying even power pressing. The "Experts" avoid bets like the hardways but during mysterious heaters, real money is made. I always play Fire Bet too, I've won all 6 twice, once $5000 and once for $10000. What a rush! And reminder to all readers, always put a $1 Fire Bet for the Dealers. You will not regret it.

[regnis]

I have previously, in other threads, offered my thoughts on the pass line and come bets versus place and buy bets and even put bets. And I also have discussed that while I am a small level VP player, I play craps at an extremely high level. But I absolutely agree with Russkg about the fact that you must stay alive until the hot roll comes along, and then you must "kill it". There are not going to be many rolls, although I have had 4-5 day periods at Caesars when they were hot all day. But when that roll comes, you better step up and make your lick---don't sit there with your $6 6 and 8.

The problem, of course, is how to stay alive during all those bad rolls. One way is to try to avoid random shooters who just whip the dice rather than try any degree of control. Another, is the 5 count (or 6 or 7 or whatever you like) where you wait until the shooter throws that many times without crap or a 7 before you get in.

Either way, you have to have some balls and step it up because you have to win big due to long sequences of losses in craps.

My friend and I still laugh about the day we were playing with a pretty low level group of novices and I rolled 18 8's. They were bringing us trays of money and the rest of the table still hadn't pressed their 8 up over $12.

[Alan Mendelson]

russkg welcome and thank you for posting. I agree with you and regnis about the importance of pressing and increasing your money on the table to take advantage of the hot rolls. My strategy for doing this is simple and there is nothing mythical about it (when playing a "normal game"):

In a normal game, at a $10 table, for example, I will start with $10 on the passline, and let's say the point is 6. I will bet $50 odds, and have $52 on the numbers across. Total outlay is $112. And then I will let the shooter do his stuff. Once I have my initial outlay back in my rail from wins I will start to press. The shooter only needs to throw three numbers and one pass and I have that $112 back.

Unfortunately, I have been at tables with eight or nine shooters, and no one makes a pass. Heck, I've been at tables where eight or nine shooters don't even make a number!

So all of the strategy of what you would do and when you would do it are wonderful to discuss, but the reality is you just have to be there at the right time, and get lucky.

On the other hand, I have also been at hot tables when players sit there and continue their minimum pass line bet and do nothing while the shooter rolls number after number and point after point and those who do press make a week's pay or a month's pay in a half hour.