Originally Posted by
Alan Mendelson
Arc, you wrote: Alan, Singer clearly states he believes the special plays give a player a better chance to reach a given win goal in that particular session. Right? Are you following? They don't. Understand? The DO NOT give a player a better chance to reach a win goal.
Let me give you ONE example, and it is one of the few "special plays" that I follow. Dealt AAA39 in Triple Double Bonus, the "correct play" is to hold AAA3 and have a 1/47 draw for the fourth ace. In TDB quad aces with a kicker is the equivalent of a royal flush for 4000 coins.
Singer's "special play" is to hold only the three aces, so you have "two chances" to draw the fourth ace.
Let's look at this at a $5/coin game paying 9/6:
Holding AAA3 I am guaranteed a return of trips for $75. I have 3 chances for pulling another 3 for a full house paying $225. I have one out of 47 chances for drawing the case Ace for $20,000.
Now Singer's special play holding AAA. I now have two chances to draw the case ace for quad aces for $4,000, plus I still have a shot at drawing the quad ace with a kicker for $20K. In addition (though this is not Singer's goal) there are more chances for a full house.
Remember that Singer's entire strategy (and this is what makes him such a pain in the butt, and offensive, and rude, and why he calls everyone who enjoys playing an addict) is based on his $2,500 win goal. He has more chances for hitting the fourth ace for $4,000 and the win goal holding only the three aces.
Frankly, if you were to take a random survey among video poker players, I would wager that most casinogoers would also hold just the three aces thinking the same way that Singer thinks, even if they have no idea who he is.