GAMBLER: SECRETS OF A LIFE AT RISK

[mickeycrimm]

Most of the book is about Walter's personal life. The Chapters that apply to sports betting are Master Class, Advanced Master Class, and War Stories. Those chapters cover only 47 pages.

I'm not a professional sports bettor so I'm not going to weigh in on the veracity of his system. I'm just commenting on what his methodology looks like to me.

And it looks to me that his system is 100% mathematical. Not half mathematical, not three quarters mathematical, not 95% mathematical....but 100% mathematical.

He starts out by saying everything comes down to value.

He bets according to power ratings. There are no hunches, opinions, gut feelings, none of that hoopla. His computer guys track every conceivable statistic and built models based on statistics going back to 1974.

His power ratings equate to the point spread. Best team in the league is around +10 and the worst team is about -10. A team that has a power rating of +7.5 is a 3.5 point favorite over a team with a +4.0 power rating. He compares his lines to the bookie lines and bets accordingly.

The raw power ratings are computer generated. Then adjustments are made for game factors. He has a mathematical value for every situation, weather condition and emotional factor.

For instance a warm team playing in 30 degree weather is docked .5 points from their power rating. If it's 20 degrees then a full point is deducted.

Quarterbacks are rated from 6 to 9.5. Mahomes is a 9.5 quarterback.

He says that injuries are the 2nd biggest factor after the raw power ratings. Every player in the league has a rating. Non QB players have a rating from 0.00 points to 3 points. If a player has a 2.0 power rating then gets injured then 2 points are deducted from the teams power rating. Then the power rating of the player that replaces him is added to the rating.

Everything is purely mathematical with him, except, he can't put a number on snow or heavy wind.

[AxelWolf]

Most of the book is about Walter's personal life. The Chapters that apply to sports betting are Master Class, Advanced Master Class, and War Stories. Those chapters cover only 47 pages.

I'm not a professional sports bettor so I'm not going to weigh in on the veracity of his system. I'm just commenting on what his methodology looks like to me.

And it looks to me that his system is 100% mathematical. Not half mathematical, not three quarters mathematical, not 95% mathematical....but 100% mathematical.

He starts out by saying everything comes down to value.

He bets according to power ratings. There are no hunches, opinions, gut feelings, none of that hoopla. His computer guys track every conceivable statistic and built models based on statistics going back to 1974.

His power ratings equate to the point spread. Best team in the league is around +10 and the worst team is about -10. A team that has a power rating of +7.5 is a 3.5 point favorite over a team with a +4.0 power rating. He compares his lines to the bookie lines and bets accordingly.

The raw power ratings are computer generated. Then adjustments are made for game factors. He has a mathematical value for every situation, weather condition and emotional factor.

For instance a warm team playing in 30 degree weather is docked .5 points from their power rating. If it's 20 degrees then a full point is deducted.

Quarterbacks are rated from 6 to 9.5. Mahomes is a 9.5 quarterback.

He says that injuries are the 2nd biggest factor after the raw power ratings. Every player in the league has a rating. Non QB players have a rating from 0.00 points to 3 points. If a player has a 2.0 power rating then gets injured then 2 points are deducted from the teams power rating. Then the power rating of the player that replaces him is added to the rating.

Everything is purely mathematical with him, except, he can't put a number on snow or heavy wind.

Value and math????? Who'd a thunk it? Did he say anything about touts, contests, and or any other advantage situations?

[cyberbabble]

There are a lot of Billy Walters stories around. Once he got famous he would use his reputation to try to move lines on games he wanted to bet.
He talked to touts, handicappers, and others. He wanted to see if any of them were worth listening to. He would drop them after a few months when he decided they didn't know anything. He would use them to spread rumors about his action.

BW: Who do like this week.
tout: blah, blah, blah
BW: That's interesting I'll look at those. What about xxx-6. I like it. Hear anything about the game?
tout: Yea, yea, I've been looking at that game.
BW: I'm hearing there is a lot of money coming in on it. Bookies getting unbalanced and nervous about the line. I think the line will move before
game time. I'm spreading some small bets around. I'd like to get some down before the line moves. Good luck on your bets.

Tout calls everybody he knows.

tout: Just talked to BW. He likes to go over his bets with me sometimes. He likes xxx-6 and thinks the line will move. He is betting it.

Tout buddies call everybody they know about inside info on who BW is betting.

BW calls his runner with a big mouth. Tells runner to get $5000 on xxx-6. Says he trying to quietly build a position because the line will move.

Runner calls everybody he knows.

Next day game opens at xxx-6.5. Touts call everybody and say I told you yesterday to get the -6 like I did.

Line closes at xxx-7.5 and BW loads up on the underdog at +7.5.

[AxelWolf]

There are a lot of Billy Walters stories around. Once he got famous he would use his reputation to try to move lines on games he wanted to bet.
He talked to touts, handicappers, and others. He wanted to see if any of them were worth listening to. He would drop them after a few months when he decided they didn't know anything. He would use them to spread rumors about his action.

BW: Who do like this week.
tout: blah, blah, blah
BW: That's interesting I'll look at those. What about xxx-6. I like it. Hear anything about the game?
tout: Yea, yea, I've been looking at that game.
BW: I'm hearing there is a lot of money coming in on it. Bookies getting unbalanced and nervous about the line. I think the line will move before
game time. I'm spreading some small bets around. I'd like to get some down before the line moves. Good luck on your bets.

Tout calls everybody he knows.

tout: Just talked to BW. He likes to go over his bets with me sometimes. He likes xxx-6 and thinks the line will move. He is betting it.

Tout buddies call everybody they know about inside info on who BW is betting.

BW calls his runner with a big mouth. Tells runner to get $5000 on xxx-6. Says he trying to quietly build a position because the line will move.

Runner calls everybody he knows.

Next day game opens at xxx-6.5. Touts call everybody and say I told you yesterday to get the -6 like I did.

Line closes at xxx-7.5 and BW loads up on the underdog at +7.5.

How long did Red work for him?

[mickeycrimm]

There are a lot of Billy Walters stories around. Once he got famous he would use his reputation to try to move lines on games he wanted to bet.
He talked to touts, handicappers, and others. He wanted to see if any of them were worth listening to. He would drop them after a few months when he decided they didn't know anything. He would use them to spread rumors about his action.

BW: Who do like this week.
tout: blah, blah, blah
BW: That's interesting I'll look at those. What about xxx-6. I like it. Hear anything about the game?
tout: Yea, yea, I've been looking at that game.
BW: I'm hearing there is a lot of money coming in on it. Bookies getting unbalanced and nervous about the line. I think the line will move before
game time. I'm spreading some small bets around. I'd like to get some down before the line moves. Good luck on your bets.

Tout calls everybody he knows.

tout: Just talked to BW. He likes to go over his bets with me sometimes. He likes xxx-6 and thinks the line will move. He is betting it.

Tout buddies call everybody they know about inside info on who BW is betting.

BW calls his runner with a big mouth. Tells runner to get $5000 on xxx-6. Says he trying to quietly build a position because the line will move.

Runner calls everybody he knows.

Next day game opens at xxx-6.5. Touts call everybody and say I told you yesterday to get the -6 like I did.

Line closes at xxx-7.5 and BW loads up on the underdog at +7.5.

How long did Red work for him?

According to redietz he worked the 2002 NFL season for Walters, about 6 months. But he has never said what his job description was.

[accountinquestion]

According to redietz he worked the 2002 NFL season for Walters, about 6 months. But he has never said what his job description was.

So as far as we know he was scrubbin' toilets to get his foot in the door.

[redietz]

According to redietz he worked the 2002 NFL season for Walters, about 6 months. But he has never said what his job description was.

So as far as we know he was scrubbin' toilets to get his foot in the door.

I wish. I was actually shining shoes. Shining shoes is a step down from scrubbing toilets because you can't wear gloves while shining shoes and handling other people's feet. The only other guy I knew who had the same status as me was named Al. Said he had moved to LV from Chicago.

It turns out, I was the top college football profit handicapper in The McCusker Report three of the final five years it published. Not nearly good enough for latrine duty. Now had I finished tops in profit FOUR out of five, maybe I would have gotten the toilet gig. Had I managed a five-year sweep of the top college football profit rankings, then it's possible that I would have qualified for chauffeur, but the odds against that were very long.

I love shining shoes. Reminds me of getting ready for early Sunday church service under the tutelage of my dad. I shined my shoes Saturday so they'd be ready.

[accountinquestion]

According to redietz he worked the 2002 NFL season for Walters, about 6 months. But he has never said what his job description was.

So as far as we know he was scrubbin' toilets to get his foot in the door.

I wish. I was actually shining shoes. Shining shoes is a step down from scrubbing toilets because you can't wear gloves while shining shoes and handling other people's feet. The only other guy I knew who had the same status as me was named Al. Said he had moved to LV from Chicago.

It turns out, I was the top college football profit handicapper in The McCusker Report three of the final five years it published. Not nearly good enough for latrine duty. Now had I finished tops in profit FOUR out of five, maybe I would have gotten the toilet gig. Had I managed a five-year sweep of the top college football profit rankings, then it's possible that I would have qualified for chauffeur, but the odds against that were very long.

I love shining shoes. Reminds me of getting ready for early Sunday church service under the tutelage of my dad. I shined my shoes Saturday so they'd be ready.

lol. Good reply Redietz. Glad to see you not insult and able to make fun of yourself.

And I'm glad to see you answer questions somewhat directly.

Anyway, I'm sure with those nice monk shoes shining is a thing.

GL

[AxelWolf]

According to redietz he worked the 2002 NFL season for Walters, about 6 months. But he has never said what his job description was.

So as far as we know he was scrubbin' toilets to get his foot in the door.

I wish. I was actually shining shoes. Shining shoes is a step down from scrubbing toilets because you can't wear gloves while shining shoes and handling other people's feet. The only other guy I knew who had the same status as me was named Al. Said he had moved to LV from Chicago.

It turns out, I was the top college football profit handicapper in The McCusker Report three of the final five years it published. Not nearly good enough for latrine duty. Now had I finished tops in profit FOUR out of five, maybe I would have gotten the toilet gig. Had I managed a five-year sweep of the top college football profit rankings, then it's possible that I would have qualified for chauffeur, but the odds against that were very long.

I love shining shoes. Reminds me of getting ready for early Sunday church service under the tutelage of my dad. I shined my shoes Saturday so they'd be ready.

FYI. I'm certain Rob Singer was a Top writer for Gaming Today for many years(that was a huge gambling magazine at one time). He has a book or two published. He has been interviewed and written about by known award-winning, presidential meeting journalists and many more accolades under his belt.

The only thing I can find on The McCusker Report is something about Alzheimer's. Good length we can follow I'm sure you probably posted them before but it's been a while.

[mickeycrimm]

According to redietz he worked the 2002 NFL season for Walters, about 6 months. But he has never said what his job description was.

So as far as we know he was scrubbin' toilets to get his foot in the door.

It turns out, I was the top college football profit handicapper in The McCusker Report three of the final five years it published.

You still haven't said what your job description with Walter's was.

[redietz]

My main title was "Shoeshine Boy." Some people thought that was racist, but I said it was okay because I wore blackface on slow Wednesdays to boost my tips.

[mickeycrimm]

Sports bettor, Bob Dietz, has asserted that Walter's chapters on strategy have a faulty context. That things were left out. And that Walter's is actually wrong about some things. And per the usual, Dietz didn't explain what was wrong or left out.

So the question is....Is Bob Dietz right, or Billy Walters right? In the book Walters says there is more than one way to handicap. I don't know that redietz is that flexible.

One thing we know for sure redietz has stated in no uncertain terms that football games cannot be fully handicapped by mathematical models. Walters fully handicaps with mathematical models.

Redietz says that EV can't be calculated. Walters measures EV.

That which way to bet against the spread is a matter of opinion. Walter's does not use opinions, just math.

I think what they have is a contrast in styles. By criticizing Walters like he is, Dietz is asserting himself to be a better handicapper than Walters. Is the mouse flipping off the elephant?

I've done a lot of googling. I can't find another negative critique of Walter's strategy. And I can't find anything about a book club meeting where they debunk Walter's strategy. Redietz has led us to believe the press was there but I've googled to hell and back and can't find a single story. And why is Deitz keeping the name of the co-host under wraps if it was a public meeting?

This controversy deserves attention by the real sports betting press. A lot of people need to weigh in. Some of these people doing podcasts need to be informed.

[redietz]

Be more than glad to pay for a podcast featuring the inestimable mickey crimm asking these same brilliant questions. Let me know when you're heading to Las Vegas. Or Tennessee for that matter. I'll pick up the tab to help you look smart.

And for the record, at no point in the book does Walters write "Expected value" or use the acronym "EV." You can use whatever excuse you want about his use of the word value (as in "greatest relative value," for example), but to say that Walters ever uses the phrase "Expected value" or "EV" in the book is flat-out incorrect.

And honestly, Walters does not present himself as a particularly wonderful handicapper in the book. He's very careful about that.

In fact, even the blurbs to sell the book are careful, as in Michael Roxborough's "Is he the greatest handicapper of all time? Maybe. Is he the greatest bettor of all time? Unquestionably."

There are few references in the book to Walters' himself actually handicapping anything.

You should have made the trip for the book club meeting. Anyone interested in my formal opening remarks?

[cyberbabble]

Did you get a good comp from the Pizza Palace or whatever it was? When a celebrity mentions a business on social media, the business usually repays the recommendation with some free merchandise.

A medium, 3 meat pizza seems like it would be a great comp.

[accountinquestion]

Someone needs to contact ditz and stake him for $500 so he has something to do outside of making up stories about some "press" having interest in him.

[mickeycrimm]

Be more than glad to pay for a podcast featuring the inestimable mickey crimm asking these same brilliant questions. Let me know when you're heading to Las Vegas. Or Tennessee for that matter. I'll pick up the tab to help you look smart.

And for the record, at no point in the book does Walters write "Expected value" or use the acronym "EV." You can use whatever excuse you want about his use of the word value (as in "greatest relative value," for example), but to say that Walters ever uses the phrase "Expected value" or "EV" in the book is flat-out incorrect.

And honestly, Walters does not present himself as a particularly wonderful handicapper in the book. He's very careful about that.

In fact, even the blurbs to sell the book are careful, as in Michael Roxborough's "Is he the greatest handicapper of all time? Maybe. Is he the greatest bettor of all time? Unquestionably."

There are few references in the book to Walters' himself actually handicapping anything.

You should have made the trip for the book club meeting. Anyone interested in my formal opening remarks?

No, no, Dietz. I've said over and over again I'm not a professional handicapper. The questions you need to answer should come from real professional sports bettors. Not only should these experts be the ones asking the questions they should also be giving their takes on Walter's strategies.

You need to quit trying to make this about me. It's about your allegations. Including your allegation that Walters has OCD.

Dietz, you also need to move into the 21st century. People don't have to travel thousands of miles to do meetings and interviews. Look at the news media. They are doing teleconferences all day long on TV. For my GWAE interviews we used Skype. So please knock of the "travel a thousand miles if you want your questions answered" bullshit.

As you know an exact EV number can't be placed on a sports bet. But that doesn't mean one can't approximate the EV. Walters graded his plays by assigning stars to them, as in 1 star, 2 star, 3 star, etc. The more stars involved the more money bet. In other words, the more EV the more you bet.

I suggested to Dan Druff that he discuss your allegations on his radio show.

And that reminds me. Druff has taken his radio show to youtube. Besides listening live you can listen to the archived shows. He has a very good format. There is a table contents so you can skip to the topics that you are interested in.

Druff is trying to acquire subscriptions so here is the link to subscribe:

https://www.youtube.com/results?sear...er+fraud+alert

[redietz]

"Approximate EV?" But no way to ascertain precision in a game where precision is everything and measured in tenths of percentage points..

There's a line for the ages. So "my best guess" becomes "approximate EV?"

I have always said I have no issues with "my best guess." In fact, I recommended it multiple times.

There are many reasons people prefer the gravitas and pretend precision of the phrase "EV."

[monet]

Be more than glad to pay for a podcast featuring the inestimable mickey crimm asking these same brilliant questions. Let me know when you're heading to Las Vegas. Or Tennessee for that matter. I'll pick up the tab to help you look smart.

And for the record, at no point in the book does Walters write "Expected value" or use the acronym "EV." You can use whatever excuse you want about his use of the word value (as in "greatest relative value," for example), but to say that Walters ever uses the phrase "Expected value" or "EV" in the book is flat-out incorrect.

And honestly, Walters does not present himself as a particularly wonderful handicapper in the book. He's very careful about that.

In fact, even the blurbs to sell the book are careful, as in Michael Roxborough's "Is he the greatest handicapper of all time? Maybe. Is he the greatest bettor of all time? Unquestionably."

There are few references in the book to Walters' himself actually handicapping anything.

You should have made the trip for the book club meeting. Anyone interested in my formal opening remarks?

Let me know when Circa puts you on their Wall of Fame.
Walters has a plaque.
Jackie has one too!
I was a bit offended that they didn't give me one.
They only have about 6 plaques so far but have room for like 600.
Not sure what their plan is there.
Kind of Odd.
I guess they competing with the California Craps Wall of Fame and the WSOP.

[monet]

Most of the book is about Walter's personal life. The Chapters that apply to sports betting are Master Class, Advanced Master Class, and War Stories. Those chapters cover only 47 pages.

I'm not a professional sports bettor so I'm not going to weigh in on the veracity of his system. I'm just commenting on what his methodology looks like to me.

And it looks to me that his system is 100% mathematical. Not half mathematical, not three quarters mathematical, not 95% mathematical....but 100% mathematical.

He starts out by saying everything comes down to value.

He bets according to power ratings. There are no hunches, opinions, gut feelings, none of that hoopla. His computer guys track every conceivable statistic and built models based on statistics going back to 1974.

His power ratings equate to the point spread. Best team in the league is around +10 and the worst team is about -10. A team that has a power rating of +7.5 is a 3.5 point favorite over a team with a +4.0 power rating. He compares his lines to the bookie lines and bets accordingly.

The raw power ratings are computer generated. Then adjustments are made for game factors. He has a mathematical value for every situation, weather condition and emotional factor.

For instance a warm team playing in 30 degree weather is docked .5 points from their power rating. If it's 20 degrees then a full point is deducted.

Quarterbacks are rated from 6 to 9.5. Mahomes is a 9.5 quarterback.

He says that injuries are the 2nd biggest factor after the raw power ratings. Every player in the league has a rating. Non QB players have a rating from 0.00 points to 3 points. If a player has a 2.0 power rating then gets injured then 2 points are deducted from the teams power rating. Then the power rating of the player that replaces him is added to the rating.

Everything is purely mathematical with him, except, he can't put a number on snow or heavy wind.

Shut Up Faggot.
Get back to sucking cock at the next rest stop.

[Spike]

"His computer guys track every conceivable statistic and built models based on statistics going back to 1974."

He does what I do, he gathers information and makes educated guesses. Except my information only goes back a few spins but it's the same thing. He's using past outcomes to make guesses about future outcomes. Works if you know how to do it.