GAMBLER: SECRETS OF A LIFE AT RISK

[Spike]

Most of the book is about Walter's personal life. The Chapters that apply to sports betting are Master Class, Advanced Master Class, and War Stories. Those chapters cover only 47 pages.

I'm not a professional sports bettor so I'm not going to weigh in on the veracity of his system. I'm just commenting on what his methodology looks like to me.

And it looks to me that his system is 100% mathematical. Not half mathematical, not three quarters mathematical, not 95% mathematical....but 100% mathematical.

He starts out by saying everything comes down to value.

He bets according to power ratings. There are no hunches, opinions, gut feelings, none of that hoopla. His computer guys track every conceivable statistic and built models based on statistics going back to 1974.

His power ratings equate to the point spread. Best team in the league is around +10 and the worst team is about -10. A team that has a power rating of +7.5 is a 3.5 point favorite over a team with a +4.0 power rating. He compares his lines to the bookie lines and bets accordingly.

The raw power ratings are computer generated. Then adjustments are made for game factors. He has a mathematical value for every situation, weather condition and emotional factor.

For instance a warm team playing in 30 degree weather is docked .5 points from their power rating. If it's 20 degrees then a full point is deducted.

Quarterbacks are rated from 6 to 9.5. Mahomes is a 9.5 quarterback.

He says that injuries are the 2nd biggest factor after the raw power ratings. Every player in the league has a rating. Non QB players have a rating from 0.00 points to 3 points. If a player has a 2.0 power rating then gets injured then 2 points are deducted from the teams power rating. Then the power rating of the player that replaces him is added to the rating.

Everything is purely mathematical with him, except, he can't put a number on snow or heavy wind.

Shut Up Faggot.
Get back to sucking cock at the next rest stop.

He's having lunch with Mommy today, can you be any more stereotypical Queen than that. LOL

[MisterV]

LOL

You got the wrong guy in the crosshairs, Spike: Are you calling MC a faggot?

Sure looks that way...

[coach belly]

Are you calling MC a faggot?

Sure looks that way...

It would look that way if MC announced that he was having lunch with his mother.

Did he?

[MisterV]

Nobody said anything about having lunch with their mother in this thread; please, pay closer attention next time.

I know, you just HAVE to jump in and twist what everybody says, but when you both fuck up like this you really look like a couple of braying jackasses.

[coach belly]

Nobody said anything about having lunch with their mother in this thread

Nobody said that they did.

But it was said in another thread.

Who says Spike can't use information from another thread?...you?

BTW...it was you who jumped in and twisted things.

Eat shit...boyo.

[MisterV]

LOL

Gotcha.

You might think you're as slippery as an eel in a bucket of snot, but you left a slime trail.

[MaxPen]

LOL

You got the wrong guy in the crosshairs, Spike: Are you calling MC a faggot?

Sure looks that way...

In all fairness hobocrimm prefers to be addressed as LadyBoyCrimm or ManServant

[kewlJ]

In all fairness hobocrimm prefers to be addressed as LadyBoyCrimm or ManServant

You are such an immature piece of shit trash.

[MaxPen]

In all fairness hobocrimm prefers to be addressed as LadyBoyCrimm or ManServant

You are such an immature piece of shit trash.

Quote it again. Spread the word.

[kewlJ]

In all fairness hobocrimm prefers to be addressed as LadyBoyCrimm or ManServant

You are such an immature piece of shit trash.

Quote it again. Spread the word.

Some day you will say the wrong thing to the wrong person on some forum and they will find you and plant some lead in your skull.

Most of us will smile and say good riddance. A few will say he wasn't like that in real life.

My only home is it doesn't kill you but you live out the rest of your days as a veggie. That is what you deserve you nasty piece of shit low life.

[coach belly]

Some day you will say the wrong thing to the wrong person on some forum and they will find you and plant some lead in your skull.

My Legal Dictionary refers to this as "Malice aforethought".

So long Maxie, we hardly knew ye.

RIP

[MaxPen]

You are such an immature piece of shit trash.

Quote it again. Spread the word.

Some day you will say the wrong thing to the wrong person on some forum and they will find you and plant some lead in your skull.

Most of us will smile and say good riddance. A few will say he wasn't like that in real life.

My only home is it doesn't kill you but you live out the rest of your days as a veggie. That is what you deserve you nasty piece of shit low life.

Once again FraudJ reveals his true self. A mentally deranged individual that can't help but lash out when cornered and exposed for what he really is.

Maybe you'll be in a better mental state once they open the tunnels back up under the Strip and you have a few bucks in your pocket from blowing some eurofags during Formula One.....RIP

[kewlJ]

For those that don't know, last year someone damaged MaxPens car. Slashed some tires or something, I forget. He thought it was seedvalue or another person from a forum or discord or real life that he had screwed. So Maxpen ran and hid from this forum for 6 months or more. He then decided the incident wasn't related to his being a piece of shit and treating people like shit, so he returned doing the same shit.

Don't take my words as a threat. I know who he is (someone PMed me some info not too long ago). Luckily for MaxPen, I don't take things off forum. But he will fuck with the wrong person at some point. And payback will be a bitch.

[MaxPen]

Some day you will say the wrong thing to the wrong person on some forum and they will find you and plant some lead in your skull.

My Legal Dictionary refers to this as "Malice aforethought".

Maxie, we hardly knew ye.

RIP

Par for the course. How many people has this homo fraud threatened to shoot over the years?

That's how you know you've really gotten to the truth with this fraud

[mickeycrimm]

Let me know when Circa puts you on their Wall of Fame.
Walters has a plaque.
Jackie has one too!
I was a bit offended that they didn't give me one.
They only have about 6 plaques so far but have room for like 600.
Not sure what their plan is there.
Kind of Odd.
I guess they competing with the California Craps Wall of Fame and the WSOP.

Your plaque is in the men's room, monette. For the millions of cocks you've sucked in it. Monet's Circa Millions.

[mickeycrimm]

Quote it again. Spread the word.

Spread the word about Maxie spreading his cheeks? Maxie Stepandfetchit and monet are back fucking again. Maxie loves it up the ass and monet loves to get shit on his dick.

[mickeycrimm]

Most of the book is about Walter's personal life. The Chapters that apply to sports betting are Master Class, Advanced Master Class, and War Stories. Those chapters cover only 47 pages.

I'm not a professional sports bettor so I'm not going to weigh in on the veracity of his system. I'm just commenting on what his methodology looks like to me.

And it looks to me that his system is 100% mathematical. Not half mathematical, not three quarters mathematical, not 95% mathematical....but 100% mathematical.

He starts out by saying everything comes down to value.

He bets according to power ratings. There are no hunches, opinions, gut feelings, none of that hoopla. His computer guys track every conceivable statistic and built models based on statistics going back to 1974.

His power ratings equate to the point spread. Best team in the league is around +10 and the worst team is about -10. A team that has a power rating of +7.5 is a 3.5 point favorite over a team with a +4.0 power rating. He compares his lines to the bookie lines and bets accordingly.

The raw power ratings are computer generated. Then adjustments are made for game factors. He has a mathematical value for every situation, weather condition and emotional factor.

For instance a warm team playing in 30 degree weather is docked .5 points from their power rating. If it's 20 degrees then a full point is deducted.

Quarterbacks are rated from 6 to 9.5. Mahomes is a 9.5 quarterback.

He says that injuries are the 2nd biggest factor after the raw power ratings. Every player in the league has a rating. Non QB players have a rating from 0.00 points to 3 points. If a player has a 2.0 power rating then gets injured then 2 points are deducted from the teams power rating. Then the power rating of the player that replaces him is added to the rating.

Everything is purely mathematical with him, except, he can't put a number on snow or heavy wind.

Shut Up Faggot.
Get back to sucking cock at the next rest stop.

He's having lunch with Mommy today, can you be any more stereotypical Queen than that. LOL

Monet's been sucking your dick and fucking you up the ass. It don't get anymore queen than that

[mickeycrimm]

You're in luck, ditz. The morons jumped in and turned this thread into a troll fest.

[mickeycrimm]

Be more than glad to pay for a podcast featuring the inestimable mickey crimm asking these same brilliant questions. Let me know when you're heading to Las Vegas. Or Tennessee for that matter. I'll pick up the tab to help you look smart.

And for the record, at no point in the book does Walters write "Expected value" or use the acronym "EV." You can use whatever excuse you want about his use of the word value (as in "greatest relative value," for example), but to say that Walters ever uses the phrase "Expected value" or "EV" in the book is flat-out incorrect.

And honestly, Walters does not present himself as a particularly wonderful handicapper in the book. He's very careful about that.

In fact, even the blurbs to sell the book are careful, as in Michael Roxborough's "Is he the greatest handicapper of all time? Maybe. Is he the greatest bettor of all time? Unquestionably."

There are few references in the book to Walters' himself actually handicapping anything.

You should have made the trip for the book club meeting. Anyone interested in my formal opening remarks?

Fezzik uses "EV" all the time as do all other sports bettors, except you. But prey tell, massa ditz, what do you think is the difference between "value" and "expected value?"

[AxelWolf]

Be more than glad to pay for a podcast featuring the inestimable mickey crimm asking these same brilliant questions. Let me know when you're heading to Las Vegas. Or Tennessee for that matter. I'll pick up the tab to help you look smart.

And for the record, at no point in the book does Walters write "Expected value" or use the acronym "EV." You can use whatever excuse you want about his use of the word value (as in "greatest relative value," for example), but to say that Walters ever uses the phrase "Expected value" or "EV" in the book is flat-out incorrect.

And honestly, Walters does not present himself as a particularly wonderful handicapper in the book. He's very careful about that.

In fact, even the blurbs to sell the book are careful, as in Michael Roxborough's "Is he the greatest handicapper of all time? Maybe. Is he the greatest bettor of all time? Unquestionably."

There are few references in the book to Walters' himself actually handicapping anything.

You should have made the trip for the book club meeting. Anyone interested in my formal opening remarks?

I cannot comment on what he has in the book, however it's even worse if you go by some of his interviews, perhaps he doesn't use the word expected, he just uses the terms value and value bet. I understand that the term expected value has been around for a very long time, however, I believe that it wasn't a term commonly used by Advantage players. Just like the term AP/Advantage Player wasn't a term I really ever heard of prior to around 2008(no doubt it appeared somewhere prior to that but it wasn't a common term. Hell, I heard every term but that term(perhaps I'll make a list I think I have before). Pro was the most common among people in the business. Professional gambler was a term commonly used by outsiders, casino employees, or for clarification with everyday people, banking, and taxes. The casinos generally like to use the term team players. For the most part, they assumed everyone was on a few big teams.
The most interesting one I heard was... corporate player. There were people, usually locals who actually believed the casinos would hire people to take down progressives and various good situations and give the money back to the gambling venue.


Anyways back to the expected value thing.

Back then, the simple term value, in lieu of expected value/EV was used more often, but even today, when talking about expected value people often drop the word expected and just use the word value. I.e. your value is XY or Z, and the word expected is implied.

He does talk about percentages, let's say 118% I would assume that there's an implied expected value there of an 18% overlay. Can you explain to me how that's not the expected value? Are you just upset at the word in and of itself? Are you upset that you just can't always quantify it exactly? Are you arguing that there's no such thing as expected value at all ln handicapping or sports betting?

Let's ignore Billy Walters for a moment, I have to assume there are at least five other well-known professional sports bettors who have gained some respect from you and others. Would you care to mention those names for us?