GAMBLER: SECRETS OF A LIFE AT RISK

[AxelWolf]

According to redietz he worked the 2002 NFL season for Walters, about 6 months. But he has never said what his job description was.

So as far as we know he was scrubbin' toilets to get his foot in the door.

If you're going to throw shade you really need to learn how really jam it in there.

So as far as we know he was scrubbin' toilets AND TAPPING HIS FOOT TO GET in the door.
You could have worked KJ's name in there somewhere and got two for one.



You can run this stuff by me and I'll help you out free of charge.

To clarify, I am not claiming any of this about him or KJ, I'm just trying to help you with your future Jabs at anyone.

[AxelWolf]

"His computer guys track every conceivable statistic and built models based on statistics going back to 1974."

He does what I do, he gathers information and makes educated guesses. Except my information only goes back a few spins but it's the same thing. He's using past outcomes to make guesses about future outcomes. Works if you know how to do it.

And they can show the math based on previous statistics and come out with an expected value. Feel free to show us your mathie math math. If you cannot do it yourself, and we know you can't, feel free to give it to Mike and I'm sure he would be glad to run the numbers.

You just made up the 80% hit rate, it's something you pulled out of your ass. I know for a fact you couldn't even figure out what percentage an 80% hit rate would give you.

Actually, I take that back, I think originally you were trying to indicate that you won/win 80% of your sessions. You didn't know how to articulate that to everyone, so to avoid looking like an idiot, you just went with the 80% hit rate. I'm fairly certain that you didn't realize there's a big difference between winning 80% of your sessions VS having an 80% hit rate.

I have it on very good authority, you couldn't even figure out what percentage an 80% hit rate would give you.

That's what's f****** you up really bad with your attempts at trying to convince everybody that you can beat roulette, you are a complete mathtard who barely even knows math, math-related/gambling-related terms. I've seen your attempts at trying to put into your own words what those crazies on gambling forums and people from the past have said. The problem is... some of those guys are actually very good at math and understand how to properly insert the correct gambling/math terms that actually make it seem somewhat believable and confusing enough to possibly sound legit/logical.

[AxelWolf]

You are such an immature piece of shit trash.

Quote it again. Spread the word.

Some day you will say the wrong thing to the wrong person on some forum and they will find you and plant some lead in your skull. .

This is when you know you have a VERY serious problem in your relationship with the forums KJ. Take a time out and reflect on what you just said.

Do this... Quote, what you just said and leave your name off it, show it to any normal person, and tell them you have been flaming/trolling someome online and this is what they responded with, and see what they say.

[kewlJ]

This is when you know you have a VERY serious problem in your relationship with the forums KJ. Take a time out and reflect on what you just said.

Do this... Quote, what you just said and leave your name off it, show it to any normal person, and tell them you have been flaming/trolling someome online and this is what they responded with, and see what they say.

I didn't say I was going to do that Axelwolf. I said someday he will say the wrong thing to the wrong person and it won't be all fun and games.

Perhaps you are not a news guy and watch the news and see what is going on. People kill one another for looking the wrong way. Those of us that live in Vegas have been following the story of the rancho High school kid that was beaten to death by a mob of fellow students over some earphones.

You never know what will trigger someone. I have had a guy take shit off forum, so I have some experience with it. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Maxpen ended up saying the wrong thing to the wrong person. And honestly I wouldn't feel the slightest bit bad if it did.

[AxelWolf]

This is when you know you have a VERY serious problem in your relationship with the forums KJ. Take a time out and reflect on what you just said.

Do this... Quote, what you just said and leave your name off it, show it to any normal person, and tell them you have been flaming/trolling someome online and this is what they responded with, and see what they say.

I didn't say I was going to do that Axelwolf. I said someday he will say the wrong thing to the wrong person and it won't be all fun and games.

Perhaps you are not a news guy and watch the news and see what is going on. People kill one another for looking the wrong way. Those of us that live in Vegas have been following the story of the rancho High school kid that was beaten to death by a mob of fellow students over some earphones.

You never know what will trigger someone. I have had a guy take shit off forum, so I have some experience with it. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Maxpen ended up saying the wrong thing to the wrong person. And honestly I wouldn't feel the slightest bit bad if it did.

I didn't say you said that you would do that. I know you didn't say you would do it. You were very careful not to say it. It's the fact that you would say anything related to something that could be construed or thought of in the wrong way of something that serious. The fact that that's even rattling around in your brain is a concern, the fact that you typed it out and put it on a forum is a concern. The fact that you don't see or understand this, is a concern. The fact that you're defending what you said is a concern.

[kewlJ]

I didn't say you said that you would do that. I know you didn't say you would do it. You were very careful not to say it. It's the fact that you would say anything related to something that could be construed or thought of in the wrong way of something that serious. The fact that that's even rattling around in your brain is a concern, the fact that you typed it out and put it on a forum is a concern. The fact that you don't see or understand this, is a concern. The fact that you're defending what you said is a concern.

Well I have concerns too Axelwolf. I am concerned about the hate attacks directed at me, more than a dozen times a day. And you know what it is really about because each attack has some homophobic reference. Again, I suggest you watch the news. Gay hate is on the rise, as is all hate. Gay bars and clubs are shot up. I suppose to you straight guys, some gay comment about another straight guy is funny and cute. If you are gay and live that shit daily, not only on forums but in the real world, you take it a little more seriously that that. Didn't you brother teach you that or did you never take the time to listen?

Enough is enough and it was more than enough long ago. A Rob Singer or an Mdawg are just complete low life pieces of shit. I expect a little more from a Maxpen. And frankly, you guys that call him a friend, should have said something a while ago about his comments being unacceptable. Boz did a little bit. From the rest of you....crickets.

[MaxPen]

It's pretty evident at this point that FraudJ has an assortment of psychiatric disorders. Very common amongst the gay community and tunnel rats. I see now that he is playing the victim card. This of course after fantasizing about someone getting shot in the head. Which he has a history of threatening to shoot or wishing various diseases on people or whatever on just about every forum he's been on from my understanding.

I'm just going to chalk it up to the stress of Formula One relocation. Once he gets that sweet spot under the Strip back so he doesn't have to walk so far to meet his clients he will be in a better mood.

[AxelWolf]

I didn't say you said that you would do that. I know you didn't say you would do it. You were very careful not to say it. It's the fact that you would say anything related to something that could be construed or thought of in the wrong way of something that serious. The fact that that's even rattling around in your brain is a concern, the fact that you typed it out and put it on a forum is a concern. The fact that you don't see or understand this, is a concern. The fact that you're defending what you said is a concern.

Well I have concerns too Axelwolf. I am concerned about the hate attacks directed at me, more than a dozen times a day. And you know what it is really about because each attack has some homophobic reference. Again, I suggest you watch the news. Gay hate is on the rise, as is all hate. Gay bars and clubs are shot up. I suppose to you straight guys, some gay comment about another straight guy is funny and cute. If you are gay and live that shit daily, not only on forums but in the real world, you take it a little more seriously that that. Didn't you brother teach you that or did you never take the time to listen?

Enough is enough and it was more than enough long ago. A Rob Singer or an Mdawg are just complete low life pieces of shit. I expect a little more from a Maxpen. And frankly, you guys that call him a friend, should have said something a while ago about his comments being unacceptable. Boz did a little bit. From the rest of you....crickets.

From everything my brother has said, he hates gays and being gay.

Nowadays, I'm hated for being white.

[mickeycrimm]

maxpuke is a slug. And a coward. And a gayboy. And a broke ass stepandfetchit bitch.

[accountinquestion]

It's pretty evident at this point that FraudJ has an assortment of psychiatric disorders. Very common amongst the gay community and tunnel rats. I see now that he is playing the victim card. This of course after fantasizing about someone getting shot in the head. Which he has a history of threatening to shoot or wishing various diseases on people or whatever on just about every forum he's been on from my understanding.

I'm just going to chalk it up to the stress of Formula One relocation. Once he gets that sweet spot under the Strip back so he doesn't have to walk so far to meet his clients he will be in a better mood.

Tunnel dwellers don't play son

[cyberbabble]

More Billy Walters from 2011 on 60 Minutes.

Who is the interviewer girl?

[mickeycrimm]

More Billy Walters from 2011 on 60 Minutes.

Who is the interviewer girl?

Lara Logan. She worked for CBS and ABC but was a little to conservative for them. She criticized liberal bias in the news. She later worked for Fox News.

[mickeycrimm]

I'm moving this from the sports betting thread to here where it belongs:

Back in the 90's all the video poker writers used the term "expected return." I suppose it was sometime around 2000 that one of the groups asserted that "expected value" was a better term to use. Everyone switched to using "EV." I don't know if EV was used by writers on other forms of gambling. It may have been video poker writers that started using it first but I don't know for sure.

"EV" is a probability term. There are other terms that mean the same thing, like expected loss or expected win. So one does not need to use the term EV to be talking about EV.

Did Walter's use the term "EV" in his book? I haven't found an example yet of him using that exact term. But I found one example where he is definitely discussing EV, but just not using the exact term. This excerpt comes from the section called Parlays & Teasers:

"In a straight bet laying $110 to win $100, the expected loss is 4.6%. Under the current rules in which a tie is a non-bet, a two-team parlay has an expected loss of 9.8 percent-more than twice the expected loss of a straight bet laying $110/$100. A three-team parlay has an expected loss of 12.4 percent, almost three times the expected loss of a straight bet."

Telling us what the Expected Loss is....is telling us what the Expected Value is.

[mickeycrimm]

This belong here also:

In his book, Billy Walters has a system for calculating the strength of his plays. It is a "star system" but really just another way of calculating EV. He has a chart called "The Relative Value Of Each Point, NFL." You'll find the chart below. This is the chart that shows the chances of exactly hitting the spread. which we've had on here earlier. His "star system" looks like this. The higher the percentage the more he bets.:

5.5% = .5 star
7% = 1 star
9% = 1.5 stars
11% = 2 stars
13% = 2.5 stars
15% = 3 stars

So if Walters had a power ratings differential of 2.5 and the line is -4 he has a 1.5 star bet. This is how he calculates it. There are two pertinent numbers between his power ratings differential, 2.5, and the -4 line, the numbers 3 and 4. If his team loses by 3 he wins the bet. If his team loses by 4 he pushes the bet.

So from the chart he takes the 8% that the 3 is worth and adds half the value of the 4, 1.5% to it. So at 9.5% its a 1.5 star bet.

Looks like calculating EV to me.

[mickeycrimm]

This belongs here too:

After his two master class chapters Walters has a chapter called War Stories. For the 2009 super bowl he had a ratings differential of 2.5 points in favor of Pittsburgh over Arizona. The line was Pittsburgh -6.5. For betting purposes it's huge. He has the numbers 3, 4, 5, and 6 covered. 8% for the 3, 3% for the 4, 3% for the 5, and 5% for the 6. It's 19%, a very big 3 star play.

He bets 850K on Arizona +4 at halftime and 1.5 million on Arizona +6.5 for the game.

I'm sure some of you remember this play. With 18 seconds left in the half the score is Pittsburgh 10, Arizona 7. Arizona has the ball on the Pittsburgh 1 yard line ready to score. So Billy has the first half locked up....except....

Kurt Warner threw an interception to James Harrison in the end zone who went 100 yards to score for Pittsburgh.A quote from Billy "As the record-setting one-hundred-yard interception return for a touchdown unfolded on the TV screen in our Las Vegas home, Susan and I could not believe that a 243 pound linebacker was traversing the entire length of the field with my pretty money in his arms."

Pittsburgh won the game 28-24 so Billy won the game bet.

Here's a video of that play: