Dan Druff's 2023-2024 NBA picks

[Dan Druff]

I've noticed in November that the 235.5+ totals are something like 15-2 so far, and most haven't been close.

Here's my shot at this until this trend reverses. I don't think the books are properly lining these "no defense" games.

Soon:
Washington vs Dallas - Over 243

Later:
Lakers vs Sacramento - Over 235.5


I feel like a big time plop.

[Don Perignom]

I feel like a big time plop.

Success for you on game 1, and you locked in wisely on game 2. Lakers/Kings betting total has moved up to 237ish.

[Don Perignom]

Lakers vs Sacramento - Over 235.5

Final: 110-125.

That's not fair. 1st half total was 131! And then 2nd half limped in at 104.

Checking an analytics site, 1st half scoring this season is running just about 2% higher than 2nd half.

Magic/Bulls last night went totally the other way. 83 H1, 107 H2.

[Dan Druff]

Four NBA overs:

Sacramento vs San Antonio - Over 238 -110
Atlanta vs Philadelphia - Over 236 -110
Milwaukee vs Charlotte - Over 240.5 -110
Utah vs Phoenix - Over 237 -110

[kewlJ]

Lakers vs Sacramento - Over 235.5

Final: 110-125.

That's not fair.

One of the sportsbooks I play used to have a thing where if you had 2 different wagers that lost by half point in one day, they would count the smaller wager as a push.

Haven't seen it mentioned recently, maybe they did away with it.

[Dan Druff]

3-1 on those four above, only losing Milwaukee over.

[Dan Druff]

Milwaukee over 245

[Dan Druff]

Lakers over 237.5

[Dan Druff]

Lost Lakers over.

Today:

Overs today:

Atlanta 237
Toronto 241
Lakers 240.5

Passing on a few others I don't like, such as Charlotte

[Dan Druff]

Won first two easily, lost Lakers

[Dan Druff]

Druff System NBA over picks today:

Washington at Milwaukee - Over 246.5
San Antonio at Golden State - Over 236

Skipping Indiana

[Dan Druff]

Won Mil over, lost San Antonio.

Today:

We're to the point of firing a line over 250.

Getting crazy but I'm going to keep on this trend until the books seem to find a reliable way to fully adjust. They're slowly moving things up, but there's still value to be had here.

Atlanta at Washington - Over 250.5

[Dan Druff]

Washington only scored 108, so I lost by 6.5.

Ok I've been mulling this one over and I like it enough.

Haven't done well on these west coast overs, but here ya go...

Dallas at Clippers - Over 237.5

[Dan Druff]

Lost Clippers over too. Ugh.

Starting soon:

Detroit vs Washington - Over 237.5

Skipping Indiana over.

[Dan Druff]

Even though I've lost 3 in a row with this "system", I'm going to continue selectively going with certain high lined games, and this is one of them.

Atlanta games, aside from their last bout with Boston, are incredibly high scoring.

Atlanta at Cleveland - Over 237.5

[kewlJ]

It is easy to be a Monday morning QB, with the should have, could haves. That is not my intend, Dan Druff. I am just wondering if you have considered this:

In almost all sports offenses are ahead of defenses in the early part of the season. That is because defense has to be a team effort. All cylinders of players have to be clicking and working together and that takes a little while. You will see higher scoring games very early in the season in basketball, baseball, football. I am not so sure about hockey.

So you were really good to identify this trend even stronger than usual early on and jump on it. But it may be winding down or even have ended. Not that there won't be high scoring games. Basketball like most sports has moved toward more scoring. But the really extreme scores we have seen early this season may be gravitating back to somewhat normal. Just the opinion of a nobody.

[Dan Druff]

Thanks.

Unfortunately these over trends are indeed starting to die down. Yesterday's pick was good, it just lost because of an anomaly 4th quarter (41 points!)

Here's one today:

Atlanta at San Antonio - Over 248 -105 (Bovada)

[Dan Druff]

W yesterday


Today:

San Antonio at New Orleans - Over 237.5 -107

[Dan Druff]

Only going to take one of the NBA overs. Celtics have often kept the one of the lowest opposition PPG in the league. Not gonna touch that one, especially at 245.

Taking Kings/Pelicans at over 238.5

[Dan Druff]

Toronto -4 vs Miami
Washington vs Philadelphia - Over 242 -115