Dan Druff's 2023-2024 NBA picks

[Half Smoke]

Lost above pick.


Time for a Knicks under.

Knicks unders are 7-1 since February 27, and almost 8-0.

Knicks games have seen one or both teams score fewer than 80 (!!) points in 3 of the past 4 contests.

Only 1 Knicks game since Feb 27 had both teams score 100+, and that one the Knicks had exactly 100.

No team in a Knicks game has scored 119+ since February 10.

New York at Sacramento - Under 217

great pick and analysis -

definitely worthwhile to bet when you have a great analysis such as this

on covers.com I tracked it and the Knicks are 24-5 on the Under on the last 29 games
they keep setting the totals on the Knicks unrealistically high - I guess in this game because the Kings are capable of scoring a lot
on 3/10 against the 6ers the 2 teams only scored 152 and the total was set at 212 - that's crazy

.

[kewlJ]

great pick and analysis -

definitely worthwhile to bet when you have a great analysis such as this

on covers.com I tracked it and the Knicks are 24-5 on the Under on the last 29 games
they keep setting the totals on the Knicks unrealistically high - I guess in this game because the Kings are capable of scoring a lot
on 3/10 against the 6ers the 2 teams only scored 152 and the total was set at 212 - that's crazy

Since the All-star break total have been down. Druff made mention of this several weeks ago. the first two weeks, unders were hitting at 75-80% but have since cooled off a bit, as totals have been adjusted. But for a variety of reasons there are teams that have just been strong under plays over this time. As noted the Knicks head that list.

But there are a few others where injuries have factored in, like the 76ers. They hit the under at a good clip since Embiid was injured. Other teams like the Bucks got a new coach who places more emphasis on defense and their totals have dropped slightly but enough to make a difference. Trades also factored in.

I have been playing this angle slightly differently in playing the half time unders rather rather the game under for certain games. This is something I started doing with college basketball, but continued into the NBA. With the half-time under you won't have to deal with that final 30 seconds and all the fouling as a team tries to catch up. NBA isn't as bad as college with this but, still if a team is down by 3-5 points, there can be 4 or 5 possession's including several fouls to extend the game. can easily be 8, 10, occasionally 12 points scored in the final half minute. With half time unders, not only do you eliminate this fouling, but the final half minute (24 seconds in NBA) will result in exactly 1 possession.

[Dan Druff]

KNICKS UNDER AUTOBET

8-1 since Feb 27, most easily covering by a million points

Knicks at Golden State - Under 212 -105 (Bovada)

[Dan Druff]

Lost above bet.

Today:

Miami vs Golden State - Under 217.5

[Dan Druff]

Almost every NBA playoff game going under so far.

Big under.

So let's do one.

Lakers at Denver - Under 223

[kewlJ]

Almost every NBA playoff game going under so far.

Big under.

So let's do one.

Lakers at Denver - Under 223

Games going under and home teams have won every game to date (11-0).

The under angle is something that occurs in most sports come playoff time. Defense seems to take over or become more important or whatever.

[Dan Druff]

Won easily last night.

More NBA playoffs unders

Giannis is out. How have the Bucks fared, total-wise since he was injured on 4/9/24?

195, 216, 232, 201, 203

All of these have gone under except the 232. The 203 was the last game.

Free throws were reduced big time by lesser penalty calling, starting midseason. This put the brakes on out of control high scores we had seen earlier. It seems that the playoffs are not just more of the same, already with some non-calls which should have been fouls. Indeed, games are going way under.

Milwaukee vs Indiana - Under 223.5

[Dan Druff]

Silly me. Instead of blanketing all 3 unders, as I almost did tonight, I picked my favorite one.

The Milwaukee under lost, the Phoenix under easily won, and the Clippers under is highly likely to win.

Damnit.

[Dan Druff]

New York Knicks at Philadelphia - Over 205 -110

[Dan Druff]

Lakers -1 vs Denver

[Dan Druff]

Dallas vs Clippers - over 213