Originally Posted by
mickeycrimm
Originally Posted by
redietz
Which 1K college football entry contests are you talking about?
You say you are just a college handicapper but all those free contests you play are NFL:
Heritage Pick the Pros
TopBet NFL
Northbet NFL
The Betonline NFL Contests
You play these free contests. You've bragged for years about your "stellar results" in them. Unfortunately, the free contests pay chickenfeed.
Why wasn't some one of your supposed caliber chasing the big money? Look at Circa Millions this year. $1000 entry, 5300 entries, $6,000,000 prize pool. Just 5300 entries creates a nice overlay all on it's own. But someone with the skills you claim to have should have a huge advantage here. If you are as good as you say you are then most of the field should be dead money to you. This should be massive overlay for someone with your "skills."
C'mon, mickey, you knew the obvious answers before you posted this. And I never said I had "stellar" results. So why would you use a word I never used? That's an old Argentino trick. Put a word in quotes. Most people read it as a direct quote, when what you are actually doing is putting it in quotes because they signify your interpretation of something said, therefore not a direct quote at all. Old trick, mickey. Newspapers don't allow it. If you try to put something in direct quotes for a newspaper, it must be an actual direct quote.
So, to the answers you already know. LOL. I think, by the way, that mickey's line, "chasing the big money," is telling. I never chase small money or big money.
1) I'm not Leonardo Da AP. I don't claim to win at everything. Gambling is serious business to me. I play those things at which I think I can win. And my time is limited. Choosing five NFL sides a week is not what I do. Way too many required selections. If NFL totals were included, I'd at least consider it, but still probably not.
2) You've never read a post here where I claim to be an NFL expert.
3) You have read my posts here where I say the NFL is the most difficult of the spread sports.
4) Deciding you have an advantage in contests like Circa or the SuperContest is a fool's errand, because you do not know how many of the entries you are competing against are coordinated and part of a massive mega-entry. So estimates of overlays are a joke and the usual "AP" blowhard-ism without knowing what you're talking about.
5) My co-host always says if you're not the biggest coordinated dog in expensive contests, you should never play. The contests claim to limit entries to a certain number. But have you ever heard of any entries in the SuperContest or Circa being disqualified for coordination? Of course not. To estimate overlays, you would have to declare these coordinations don't exist and have never happened.
6) Multiple entries in contests like this, which are non-random events, do not create a simple arithmetic advantage. The advantage becomes greater and greater the more entries you have. It's called an economy of scale.
7) For example, in the old, relatively cheap, Barbary Coast contest, I shepherded a group of 32 to 64 coordinated entries on a regular basis. The supposed limit for one person was five. Think I was cheating? You should have seen the paper grocery bag filled with entries that arrived on Fridays. A coordinated group of 1100 entries (out of 20K). Think they had an advantage? Think you could decide what overlays existed in this contest without knowing that? Ah, but you're an "AP," using "AP" tools. Your calculations would have been useless.
8) My whole mantra, unlike you, mickey, is staying in my lane. Not pretending to be expert at everything. Not using incorrect math to estimate "EV" or "overlays" when those are just guesses. Classic "AP" garbage. Maybe you guess good, fine, just say, "My best guess" or whatever.
9) As you probably know, I entered a one-week 1K contest back in the day, because it suited me and I liked the week. That contest would have cost more than 3K in 2023 dollars for one week. I go where my best guess takes me.
https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...nd-edmund.html
10) Time is limited. You should choose paid contests, and I formally recommend this, that suit your skills. I happen to have some skills handicapping NFL games sans spreads. There are no big ticket contests for that.
To summarize, mickey thinks you can estimate overlays using simple math without understanding which entries are coordinated. You cannot. I would never try to do something for substantive money that's not in my wheelhouse. I don't remember the last time I actually bet five NFL sides in a week. Maybe this decade. Maybe not. Unlike mickey, who nonchalantly riffed about playing poker and betting sports for profit in his first GWAE interview, I am not Leonardo Da AP.
Never wanted to be, honestly. Have no interest. Personally, I think the Leonardo Da AP stuff is all snipe hunt.
Thanks for the opportunity, mickey. I would not, by the way, have entered a big-ticket college football contest this season because of the truncated games. I needed to see what effects those cut possessions had in the real world. I can go on for hours regarding this stuff, and I could answer the same questions on camera for you in three weeks. Be there or be square.