Extraordinary NFL Results --

[Treeshade]

Unlike anonymous "APs," handicappers get vetted by outside people. We compete. We win or lose in the light of day, with thousands of eyes on us. We don't post under names like "Seedvalue" -- LOL. We are real people doing real things, being evaluated by the public every day of every week.

We don't get to make stuff up and brag on it. Not that, as Seinfeld says, there's anything wrong with that.

And really, the guy telling swapping stories online doesn't know prostitution in LV is illegal? C'mon, man. Nobody is buying that. Where do you live? Branson?

You must not read as much as you say, or perhaps technology is not something that interest you. My screen name has a meaning

Now anytime you would like to enter into a real contest of making money online or brick and mortar let me know. It will be fun to put you in your place champion. Like that piece of shit Italian restaurant you recommended in Grantvile. The one you said that was mobbed up and knew you lol. No one there knew who you were. Shit hole place anyway. I was in that area the first 6 months of last year printing more money then you probably made in 20 years. I’m willing to verify whatever if you do the same. Not a problem I’m just calling you out as the fraud you are.

Ummmm, I never recommended an Italian restaurant in Grantville. I don't even know any Italian restaurants in Grantville. Is your memory okay, Seed?

Other than that, and the prostitution in Las Vegas thing, you are batting a thousand.

You know what bothers me about that prostitution whiff of yours? A couple of years before the pandemic, the mayor and downtown Las Vegas were floating the idea of legalizing prostitution downtown (as opposed to the strip). It was in the local news for months. Every news channel carried the story. It made national news, too. Anybody following Las Vegas had to know that prostitution was not currently legal. There was an actual, sustained debate about it. But somehow you're unaware or forgot.

Grantville, for readers, is the little town where Penn National is located. As many times as I visited Penn National back in my youth (it was about 10 miles from where my wife and I lived for five years), I'm not sure I ever drove through Grantville itself. I think I've been to Penn National once in the last 20 years. So how I recommended a restaurant in Grantville, I have zero idea. You are confusing me with someone else.

Have a great time printing money. I'm a handicapper, not a counterfeiter, by the way.

It’s not in grantvile it’s near penn national and you most certainly did recommend it. I don’t have time to look it up currently but will later. Just like I don’t keep up on the legality of prostitution in Vegas. There’s only so much time in the day and I try not to waste it.

[redietz]

You must not read as much as you say, or perhaps technology is not something that interest you. My screen name has a meaning

Now anytime you would like to enter into a real contest of making money online or brick and mortar let me know. It will be fun to put you in your place champion. Like that piece of shit Italian restaurant you recommended in Grantvile. The one you said that was mobbed up and knew you lol. No one there knew who you were. Shit hole place anyway. I was in that area the first 6 months of last year printing more money then you probably made in 20 years. I’m willing to verify whatever if you do the same. Not a problem I’m just calling you out as the fraud you are.

Ummmm, I never recommended an Italian restaurant in Grantville. I don't even know any Italian restaurants in Grantville. Is your memory okay, Seed?

Other than that, and the prostitution in Las Vegas thing, you are batting a thousand.

You know what bothers me about that prostitution whiff of yours? A couple of years before the pandemic, the mayor and downtown Las Vegas were floating the idea of legalizing prostitution downtown (as opposed to the strip). It was in the local news for months. Every news channel carried the story. It made national news, too. Anybody following Las Vegas had to know that prostitution was not currently legal. There was an actual, sustained debate about it. But somehow you're unaware or forgot.

Grantville, for readers, is the little town where Penn National is located. As many times as I visited Penn National back in my youth (it was about 10 miles from where my wife and I lived for five years), I'm not sure I ever drove through Grantville itself. I think I've been to Penn National once in the last 20 years. So how I recommended a restaurant in Grantville, I have zero idea. You are confusing me with someone else.

Have a great time printing money. I'm a handicapper, not a counterfeiter, by the way.

It’s not in grantvile it’s near penn national and you most certainly did recommend it. I don’t have time to look it up currently but will later. Just like I don’t keep up on the legality of prostitution in Vegas. There’s only so much time in the day and I try not to waste it.

You must not have time to proofread your own posts, either. How can you post something like "that piece of shit Italian restaurant you recommended in Grantville" and then say it wasn't in Grantville. The closest city to Penn National is Harrisburg. That's 15 miles, and I didn't recommend any Italian restaurant in Harrisburg, either. In fact, I haven't recommended any Italian restaurants in the state of Pennsylvania.

Let me guess. Next you'll post that the restaurant wasn't within 15 miles of Grantville, it wasn't Italian, and I didn't really recommend it. And I didn't say it was "mobbed up," either. But other than that, you were absolutely correct.

LOL.

[accountinquestion]

Unlike anonymous "APs," handicappers get vetted by outside people. We compete. We win or lose in the light of day, with thousands of eyes on us. We don't post under names like "Seedvalue" -- LOL. We are real people doing real things, being evaluated by the public every day of every week.

We don't get to make stuff up and brag on it. Not that, as Seinfeld says, there's anything wrong with that.

And really, the guy telling swapping stories online doesn't know prostitution in LV is illegal? C'mon, man. Nobody is buying that. Where do you live? Branson?

red, what's your record in the $1000 entry contests?

He wouldn't even play me in a tournament for 1k where he can make up the rules.

I will give it to him though that he has more to lose given he has some reputation to protect. (granted it is 99% in his head but a fair point)

[redietz]

Unlike anonymous "APs," handicappers get vetted by outside people. We compete. We win or lose in the light of day, with thousands of eyes on us. We don't post under names like "Seedvalue" -- LOL. We are real people doing real things, being evaluated by the public every day of every week.

We don't get to make stuff up and brag on it. Not that, as Seinfeld says, there's anything wrong with that.

And really, the guy telling swapping stories online doesn't know prostitution in LV is illegal? C'mon, man. Nobody is buying that. Where do you live? Branson?

red, what's your record in the $1000 entry contests?

He wouldn't even play me in a tournament for 1k where he can make up the rules.

I will give it to him though that he has more to lose given he has some reputation to protect. (granted it is 99% in his head but a fair point)

Absolutely correct. I made it into Who's Who in Sports Gambling based on the reputation in my head. Billy Walters recruited me because of the reputation in my head. And I finished as the top college football profit handicapper three of the final five years Tipsters or Gypsters published, also due to the reputation in my head. I gave a paper at the National Conference on Gambling and Risk-Taking due to the reputation in my head. I was published in The Humanist ("Scientists, Gamblers, and Magicians") due to the reputation in my head. I won the TopBet NFL contest last season against 1300 people because of, you guessed it, the reputation in my head.

The reputation in my head has really helped me through the course of 50 years of doing this. For example, this year, I'm third in the Northbet Pick the Pros contest out of 500, thanks to the reputation in my head. I am, unfortunately, only 19th out of 900 in Topbet. I blame that on the reputation in my head also.

Meanwhile, accountinquestion is well known because he's chosen a fine nom de plume.

[Treeshade]

Ummmm, I never recommended an Italian restaurant in Grantville. I don't even know any Italian restaurants in Grantville. Is your memory okay, Seed?

Other than that, and the prostitution in Las Vegas thing, you are batting a thousand.

You know what bothers me about that prostitution whiff of yours? A couple of years before the pandemic, the mayor and downtown Las Vegas were floating the idea of legalizing prostitution downtown (as opposed to the strip). It was in the local news for months. Every news channel carried the story. It made national news, too. Anybody following Las Vegas had to know that prostitution was not currently legal. There was an actual, sustained debate about it. But somehow you're unaware or forgot.

Grantville, for readers, is the little town where Penn National is located. As many times as I visited Penn National back in my youth (it was about 10 miles from where my wife and I lived for five years), I'm not sure I ever drove through Grantville itself. I think I've been to Penn National once in the last 20 years. So how I recommended a restaurant in Grantville, I have zero idea. You are confusing me with someone else.

Have a great time printing money. I'm a handicapper, not a counterfeiter, by the way.

It’s not in grantvile it’s near penn national and you most certainly did recommend it. I don’t have time to look it up currently but will later. Just like I don’t keep up on the legality of prostitution in Vegas. There’s only so much time in the day and I try not to waste it.

You must not have time to proofread your own posts, either. How can you post something like "that piece of shit Italian restaurant you recommended in Grantville" and then say it wasn't in Grantville. The closest city to Penn National is Harrisburg. That's 15 miles, and I didn't recommend any Italian restaurant in Harrisburg, either. In fact, I haven't recommended any Italian restaurants in the state of Pennsylvania.

Let me guess. Next you'll post that the restaurant wasn't within 15 miles of Grantville, it wasn't Italian, and I didn't really recommend it. And I didn't say it was "mobbed up," either. But other than that, you were absolutely correct.

LOL.

777 Hollywood Blvd, Grantville, PA 17028
Address

Is the address so now you basically have confirmed to be at best losing your mind.

We can play stupid games by saying it’s technically not a city but a township however the population is north of 7k. In any event you know exactly the place I’m talking about. I will look back when I have time. I was only making 130k a month from those three casinos during the first part of 2022. If you knew about the play and There are people on this board who do then you wouldn’t act so smug. It’s doubtful you make any amount of money betting in these fake contest.

I think you probably ran a illegal book at some point. There were plenty of guys like you back in the day around PA. Certainly nothing special or unique. I don’t even care that or if you such things. Easy money for you I imagine.

And no I hardly ever read or proofread my post. It’s not that important

[Treeshade]

It’s not in grantvile it’s near penn national and you most certainly did recommend it. I don’t have time to look it up currently but will later. Just like I don’t keep up on the legality of prostitution in Vegas. There’s only so much time in the day and I try not to waste it.

You must not have time to proofread your own posts, either. How can you post something like "that piece of shit Italian restaurant you recommended in Grantville" and then say it wasn't in Grantville. The closest city to Penn National is Harrisburg. That's 15 miles, and I didn't recommend any Italian restaurant in Harrisburg, either. In fact, I haven't recommended any Italian restaurants in the state of Pennsylvania.

Let me guess. Next you'll post that the restaurant wasn't within 15 miles of Grantville, it wasn't Italian, and I didn't really recommend it. And I didn't say it was "mobbed up," either. But other than that, you were absolutely correct.

LOL.

777 Hollywood Blvd, Grantville, PA 17028
Address

Is the address so now you basically have confirmed to be at best losing your mind.

We can play stupid games by saying it’s technically not a city but a township however the population is north of 7k. In any event you know exactly the place I’m talking about. I will look back when I have time. I was only making 130k a month from those three casinos during the first part of 2022. If you knew about the play and There are people on this board who do then you wouldn’t act so smug. It’s doubtful you make any amount of money betting in these fake contest.

I think you probably ran a illegal book at some point. There were plenty of guys like you back in the day around PA. Certainly nothing special or unique. I don’t even care that or if you such things. Easy money for you I imagine.

And no I hardly ever read or proofread my post. It’s not that important

Don’t worry I will get to you soon I got some free time end of January. I suspect your a broke fraud. I like to travel

[MaxPen]

red, what's your record in the $1000 entry contests?

He wouldn't even play me in a tournament for 1k where he can make up the rules.

I will give it to him though that he has more to lose given he has some reputation to protect. (granted it is 99% in his head but a fair point)

Absolutely correct. I made it into Who's Who in Sports Gambling based on the reputation in my head. Billy Walters recruited me because of the reputation in my head. And I finished as the top college football profit handicapper three of the final five years Tipsters or Gypsters published, also due to the reputation in my head. I gave a paper at the National Conference on Gambling and Risk-Taking due to the reputation in my head. I was published in The Humanist ("Scientists, Gamblers, and Magicians") due to the reputation in my head. I won the TopBet NFL contest last season against 1300 people because of, you guessed it, the reputation in my head.

The reputation in my head has really helped me through the course of 50 years of doing this. For example, this year, I'm third in the Northbet Pick the Pros contest out of 500, thanks to the reputation in my head. I am, unfortunately, only 19th out of 900 in Topbet. I blame that on the reputation in my head also.

Meanwhile, accountinquestion is well known because he's chosen a fine nom de plume.

Would you like all that on your tombstone? Or will just a simple "RIP" do?

[mickeycrimm]

Which 1K college football entry contests are you talking about?

You say you are just a college handicapper but all those free contests you play are NFL:

Heritage Pick the Pros
TopBet NFL
Northbet NFL
The Betonline NFL Contests

You play these free contests. You've bragged for years about your "stellar results" in them. Unfortunately, the free contests pay chickenfeed.

Why wasn't some one of your supposed caliber chasing the big money? Look at Circa Millions this year. $1000 entry, 5300 entries, $6,000,000 prize pool. Just 5300 entries creates a nice overlay all on it's own. But someone with the skills you claim to have should have a huge advantage here. If you are as good as you say you are then most of the field should be dead money to you. This should be massive overlay for someone with your "skills."

[redietz]

Which 1K college football entry contests are you talking about?

You say you are just a college handicapper but all those free contests you play are NFL:

Heritage Pick the Pros
TopBet NFL
Northbet NFL
The Betonline NFL Contests

You play these free contests. You've bragged for years about your "stellar results" in them. Unfortunately, the free contests pay chickenfeed.

Why wasn't some one of your supposed caliber chasing the big money? Look at Circa Millions this year. $1000 entry, 5300 entries, $6,000,000 prize pool. Just 5300 entries creates a nice overlay all on it's own. But someone with the skills you claim to have should have a huge advantage here. If you are as good as you say you are then most of the field should be dead money to you. This should be massive overlay for someone with your "skills."

C'mon, mickey, you knew the obvious answers before you posted this. And I never said I had "stellar" results. So why would you use a word I never used? That's an old Argentino trick. Put a word in quotes. Most people read it as a direct quote, when what you are actually doing is putting it in quotes because they signify your interpretation of something said, therefore not a direct quote at all. Old trick, mickey. Newspapers don't allow it. If you try to put something in direct quotes for a newspaper, it must be an actual direct quote.

So, to the answers you already know. LOL. I think, by the way, that mickey's line, "chasing the big money," is telling. I never chase small money or big money.

1) I'm not Leonardo Da AP. I don't claim to win at everything. Gambling is serious business to me. I play those things at which I think I can win. And my time is limited. Choosing five NFL sides a week is not what I do. Way too many required selections. If NFL totals were included, I'd at least consider it, but still probably not.

2) You've never read a post here where I claim to be an NFL expert.

3) You have read my posts here where I say the NFL is the most difficult of the spread sports.

4) Deciding you have an advantage in contests like Circa or the SuperContest is a fool's errand, because you do not know how many of the entries you are competing against are coordinated and part of a massive mega-entry. So estimates of overlays are a joke and the usual "AP" blowhard-ism without knowing what you're talking about.

5) My co-host always says if you're not the biggest coordinated dog in expensive contests, you should never play. The contests claim to limit entries to a certain number. But have you ever heard of any entries in the SuperContest or Circa being disqualified for coordination? Of course not. To estimate overlays, you would have to declare these coordinations don't exist and have never happened.

6) Multiple entries in contests like this, which are non-random events, do not create a simple arithmetic advantage. The advantage becomes greater and greater the more entries you have. It's called an economy of scale.

7) For example, in the old, relatively cheap, Barbary Coast contest, I shepherded a group of 32 to 64 coordinated entries on a regular basis. The supposed limit for one person was five. Think I was cheating? You should have seen the paper grocery bag filled with entries that arrived on Fridays. A coordinated group of 1100 entries (out of 20K). Think they had an advantage? Think you could decide what overlays existed in this contest without knowing that? Ah, but you're an "AP," using "AP" tools. Your calculations would have been useless.

8) My whole mantra, unlike you, mickey, is staying in my lane. Not pretending to be expert at everything. Not using incorrect math to estimate "EV" or "overlays" when those are just guesses. Classic "AP" garbage. Maybe you guess good, fine, just say, "My best guess" or whatever.

9) As you probably know, I entered a one-week 1K contest back in the day, because it suited me and I liked the week. That contest would have cost more than 3K in 2023 dollars for one week. I go where my best guess takes me.

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...nd-edmund.html

10) Time is limited. You should choose paid contests, and I formally recommend this, that suit your skills. I happen to have some skills handicapping NFL games sans spreads. There are no big ticket contests for that.

To summarize, mickey thinks you can estimate overlays using simple math without understanding which entries are coordinated. You cannot. I would never try to do something for substantive money that's not in my wheelhouse. I don't remember the last time I actually bet five NFL sides in a week. Maybe this decade. Maybe not. Unlike mickey, who nonchalantly riffed about playing poker and betting sports for profit in his first GWAE interview, I am not Leonardo Da AP.

Never wanted to be, honestly. Have no interest. Personally, I think the Leonardo Da AP stuff is all snipe hunt.

Thanks for the opportunity, mickey. I would not, by the way, have entered a big-ticket college football contest this season because of the truncated games. I needed to see what effects those cut possessions had in the real world. I can go on for hours regarding this stuff, and I could answer the same questions on camera for you in three weeks. Be there or be square.

[mickeycrimm]

Which 1K college football entry contests are you talking about?

You say you are just a college handicapper but all those free contests you play are NFL:

Heritage Pick the Pros
TopBet NFL
Northbet NFL
The Betonline NFL Contests

You play these free contests. You've bragged for years about your "stellar results" in them. Unfortunately, the free contests pay chickenfeed.

Why wasn't some one of your supposed caliber chasing the big money? Look at Circa Millions this year. $1000 entry, 5300 entries, $6,000,000 prize pool. Just 5300 entries creates a nice overlay all on it's own. But someone with the skills you claim to have should have a huge advantage here. If you are as good as you say you are then most of the field should be dead money to you. This should be massive overlay for someone with your "skills."

C'mon, mickey, you knew the obvious answers before you posted this. And I never said I had "stellar" results. So why would you use a word I never used? That's an old Argentino trick. Put a word in quotes. Most people read it as a direct quote, when what you are actually doing is putting it in quotes because they signify your interpretation of something said, therefore not a direct quote at all. Old trick, mickey. Newspapers don't allow it. If you try to put something in direct quotes for a newspaper, it must be an actual direct quote.

So, to the answers you already know. LOL. I think, by the way, that mickey's line, "chasing the big money," is telling. I never chase small money or big money.

1) I'm not Leonardo Da AP. I don't claim to win at everything. Gambling is serious business to me. I play those things at which I think I can win. And my time is limited. Choosing five NFL sides a week is not what I do. Way too many required selections. If NFL totals were included, I'd at least consider it, but still probably not.

2) You've never read a post here where I claim to be an NFL expert.

3) You have read my posts here where I say the NFL is the most difficult of the spread sports.

4) Deciding you have an advantage in contests like Circa or the SuperContest is a fool's errand, because you do not know how many of the entries you are competing against are coordinated and part of a massive mega-entry. So estimates of overlays are a joke and the usual "AP" blowhard-ism without knowing what you're talking about.

5) My co-host always says if you're not the biggest coordinated dog in expensive contests, you should never play. The contests claim to limit entries to a certain number. But have you ever heard of any entries in the SuperContest or Circa being disqualified for coordination? Of course not. To estimate overlays, you would have to declare these coordinations don't exist and have never happened.

6) Multiple entries in contests like this, which are non-random events, do not create a simple arithmetic advantage. The advantage becomes greater and greater the more entries you have. It's called an economy of scale.

7) For example, in the old, relatively cheap, Barbary Coast contest, I shepherded a group of 32 to 64 coordinated entries on a regular basis. The supposed limit for one person was five. Think I was cheating? You should have seen the paper grocery bag filled with entries that arrived on Fridays. A coordinated group of 1100 entries (out of 20K). Think they had an advantage? Think you could decide what overlays existed in this contest without knowing that? Ah, but you're an "AP," using "AP" tools. Your calculations would have been useless.

8) My whole mantra, unlike you, mickey, is staying in my lane. Not pretending to be expert at everything. Not using incorrect math to estimate "EV" or "overlays" when those are just guesses. Classic "AP" garbage. Maybe you guess good, fine, just say, "My best guess" or whatever.

9) As you probably know, I entered a one-week 1K contest back in the day, because it suited me and I liked the week. That contest would have cost more than 3K in 2023 dollars for one week. I go where my best guess takes me.

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...nd-edmund.html

10) Time is limited. You should choose paid contests, and I formally recommend this, that suit your skills. I happen to have some skills handicapping NFL games sans spreads. There are no big ticket contests for that.

To summarize, mickey thinks you can estimate overlays using simple math without understanding which entries are coordinated. You cannot. I would never try to do something for substantive money that's not in my wheelhouse. I don't remember the last time I actually bet five NFL sides in a week. Maybe this decade. Maybe not. Unlike mickey, who nonchalantly riffed about playing poker and betting sports for profit in his first GWAE interview, I am not Leonardo Da AP.

Never wanted to be, honestly. Have no interest. Personally, I think the Leonardo Da AP stuff is all snipe hunt.

Thanks for the opportunity, mickey. I would not, by the way, have entered a big-ticket college football contest this season because of the truncated games. I needed to see what effects those cut possessions had in the real world. I can go on for hours regarding this stuff, and I could answer the same questions on camera for you in three weeks. Be there or be square.

You can cry and snivel about it all you want but for overall gambling knowledge every AP on this site can run circles around you. You're a weak pathetic fraud with your "opinion" bullshit. And your fascist tendencies shine through. Heil!!

[mickeycrimm]

Which 1K college football entry contests are you talking about?

You say you are just a college handicapper but all those free contests you play are NFL:

Heritage Pick the Pros
TopBet NFL
Northbet NFL
The Betonline NFL Contests

You play these free contests. You've bragged for years about your "stellar results" in them. Unfortunately, the free contests pay chickenfeed.

Why wasn't some one of your supposed caliber chasing the big money? Look at Circa Millions this year. $1000 entry, 5300 entries, $6,000,000 prize pool. Just 5300 entries creates a nice overlay all on it's own. But someone with the skills you claim to have should have a huge advantage here. If you are as good as you say you are then most of the field should be dead money to you. This should be massive overlay for someone with your "skills."

C'mon, mickey, you knew the obvious answers before you posted this. And I never said I had "stellar" results. So why would you use a word I never used? That's an old Argentino trick. Put a word in quotes. Most people read it as a direct quote, when what you are actually doing is putting it in quotes because they signify your interpretation of something said, therefore not a direct quote at all. Old trick, mickey. Newspapers don't allow it. If you try to put something in direct quotes for a newspaper, it must be an actual direct quote.

So, to the answers you already know. LOL. I think, by the way, that mickey's line, "chasing the big money," is telling. I never chase small money or big money.

1) I'm not Leonardo Da AP. I don't claim to win at everything. Gambling is serious business to me. I play those things at which I think I can win. And my time is limited. Choosing five NFL sides a week is not what I do. Way too many required selections. If NFL totals were included, I'd at least consider it, but still probably not.

2) You've never read a post here where I claim to be an NFL expert.

3) You have read my posts here where I say the NFL is the most difficult of the spread sports.

4) Deciding you have an advantage in contests like Circa or the SuperContest is a fool's errand, because you do not know how many of the entries you are competing against are coordinated and part of a massive mega-entry. So estimates of overlays are a joke and the usual "AP" blowhard-ism without knowing what you're talking about.

5) My co-host always says if you're not the biggest coordinated dog in expensive contests, you should never play. The contests claim to limit entries to a certain number. But have you ever heard of any entries in the SuperContest or Circa being disqualified for coordination? Of course not. To estimate overlays, you would have to declare these coordinations don't exist and have never happened.

6) Multiple entries in contests like this, which are non-random events, do not create a simple arithmetic advantage. The advantage becomes greater and greater the more entries you have. It's called an economy of scale.

7) For example, in the old, relatively cheap, Barbary Coast contest, I shepherded a group of 32 to 64 coordinated entries on a regular basis. The supposed limit for one person was five. Think I was cheating? You should have seen the paper grocery bag filled with entries that arrived on Fridays. A coordinated group of 1100 entries (out of 20K). Think they had an advantage? Think you could decide what overlays existed in this contest without knowing that? Ah, but you're an "AP," using "AP" tools. Your calculations would have been useless.

8) My whole mantra, unlike you, mickey, is staying in my lane. Not pretending to be expert at everything. Not using incorrect math to estimate "EV" or "overlays" when those are just guesses. Classic "AP" garbage. Maybe you guess good, fine, just say, "My best guess" or whatever.

9) As you probably know, I entered a one-week 1K contest back in the day, because it suited me and I liked the week. That contest would have cost more than 3K in 2023 dollars for one week. I go where my best guess takes me.

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...nd-edmund.html

10) Time is limited. You should choose paid contests, and I formally recommend this, that suit your skills. I happen to have some skills handicapping NFL games sans spreads. There are no big ticket contests for that.

To summarize, mickey thinks you can estimate overlays using simple math without understanding which entries are coordinated. You cannot. I would never try to do something for substantive money that's not in my wheelhouse. I don't remember the last time I actually bet five NFL sides in a week. Maybe this decade. Maybe not. Unlike mickey, who nonchalantly riffed about playing poker and betting sports for profit in his first GWAE interview, I am not Leonardo Da AP.

Never wanted to be, honestly. Have no interest. Personally, I think the Leonardo Da AP stuff is all snipe hunt.

Thanks for the opportunity, mickey. I would not, by the way, have entered a big-ticket college football contest this season because of the truncated games. I needed to see what effects those cut possessions had in the real world. I can go on for hours regarding this stuff, and I could answer the same questions on camera for you in three weeks. Be there or be square.

Here's Walters calculating his EV's.

In his book, Billy Walters has a system for calculating the strength of his plays. It is a "star system" but really just another way of calculating EV. He has a chart called "The Relative Value Of Each Point, NFL." You'll find the chart below. This is the chart that shows the chances of exactly hitting the spread. which we've had on here earlier. His "star system" looks like this. The higher the percentage the more he bets.:

5.5% = .5 star
7% = 1 star
9% = 1.5 stars
11% = 2 stars
13% = 2.5 stars
15% = 3 stars


So if Walters had a power ratings differential of 2.5 and the line is -4 he has a 1.5 star bet. This is how he calculates it. There are two pertinent numbers between his power ratings differential, 2.5, and the -4 line, the numbers 3 and 4. If his team loses by 3 he wins the bet. If his team loses by 4 he pushes the bet.

So from the chart he takes the 8% that the 3 is worth and adds half the value of the 4, 1.5% to it. So at 9.5% its a 1.5 star bet.

[redietz]

"Overall gambling knowledge?" Who wants "overall gambling knowledge??" LOL. I want to win money.

"Overall gambling knowledge" is the purview of people looking for an excuse to gamble 24/7. "Overall gambling knowledge" is how Stu Ungar and Phil Ivey blew through millions of dollars.

I would never enter a big-ticket NFL sides contest. Why would I? It would be like mickey crimm trying use his machine gambling knowledge to win at poker or sports betting.

Mickey should talk to Bob Dancer sometime or watch Magnum Force.

[mickeycrimm]

My whole mantra, unlike you, mickey, is staying in my lane. Not pretending to be expert at everything. Not using incorrect math to estimate "EV" or "overlays" when those are just guesses. Classic "AP" garbage. Maybe you guess good, fine, just say, "My best guess" or whatever.

LOL! at your stupidity. Stay in my own lane? How about you stay in your own lane. You've told us for years that math is no good in sportsbetting, that it's a game of opinion. Then Walter's book comes out and crushes your hypothesis. He's totally mathematical.

One of the things I noticed about you all these years is you never once put up any kind of math problems. Not one equation. No math at all.

Then just a few days ago you showed us just how weak in math you are by saying "Mickey believes an 8-4 record is two games above .500. I'm going to call in on GWAE on that one." You clearly showed that you couldn't figure out that 8-4 is two games above .500.

That's weak, dude. Extremely weak. You tell everyone, "you shouldn't comment on things you know nothing about?" Well, please don't make any more comments about math and EV because you have clearly shown you are severely lacking in math skills.

It's no wonder you had to come out criticizing Walters' handicapping system. It's based on something you know nothing about, mathematics.

[redietz]

You say you are just a college handicapper but all those free contests you play are NFL:

Heritage Pick the Pros
TopBet NFL
Northbet NFL
The Betonline NFL Contests

You play these free contests. You've bragged for years about your "stellar results" in them. Unfortunately, the free contests pay chickenfeed.

Why wasn't some one of your supposed caliber chasing the big money? Look at Circa Millions this year. $1000 entry, 5300 entries, $6,000,000 prize pool. Just 5300 entries creates a nice overlay all on it's own. But someone with the skills you claim to have should have a huge advantage here. If you are as good as you say you are then most of the field should be dead money to you. This should be massive overlay for someone with your "skills."

C'mon, mickey, you knew the obvious answers before you posted this. And I never said I had "stellar" results. So why would you use a word I never used? That's an old Argentino trick. Put a word in quotes. Most people read it as a direct quote, when what you are actually doing is putting it in quotes because they signify your interpretation of something said, therefore not a direct quote at all. Old trick, mickey. Newspapers don't allow it. If you try to put something in direct quotes for a newspaper, it must be an actual direct quote.

So, to the answers you already know. LOL. I think, by the way, that mickey's line, "chasing the big money," is telling. I never chase small money or big money.

1) I'm not Leonardo Da AP. I don't claim to win at everything. Gambling is serious business to me. I play those things at which I think I can win. And my time is limited. Choosing five NFL sides a week is not what I do. Way too many required selections. If NFL totals were included, I'd at least consider it, but still probably not.

2) You've never read a post here where I claim to be an NFL expert.

3) You have read my posts here where I say the NFL is the most difficult of the spread sports.

4) Deciding you have an advantage in contests like Circa or the SuperContest is a fool's errand, because you do not know how many of the entries you are competing against are coordinated and part of a massive mega-entry. So estimates of overlays are a joke and the usual "AP" blowhard-ism without knowing what you're talking about.

5) My co-host always says if you're not the biggest coordinated dog in expensive contests, you should never play. The contests claim to limit entries to a certain number. But have you ever heard of any entries in the SuperContest or Circa being disqualified for coordination? Of course not. To estimate overlays, you would have to declare these coordinations don't exist and have never happened.

6) Multiple entries in contests like this, which are non-random events, do not create a simple arithmetic advantage. The advantage becomes greater and greater the more entries you have. It's called an economy of scale.

7) For example, in the old, relatively cheap, Barbary Coast contest, I shepherded a group of 32 to 64 coordinated entries on a regular basis. The supposed limit for one person was five. Think I was cheating? You should have seen the paper grocery bag filled with entries that arrived on Fridays. A coordinated group of 1100 entries (out of 20K). Think they had an advantage? Think you could decide what overlays existed in this contest without knowing that? Ah, but you're an "AP," using "AP" tools. Your calculations would have been useless.

8) My whole mantra, unlike you, mickey, is staying in my lane. Not pretending to be expert at everything. Not using incorrect math to estimate "EV" or "overlays" when those are just guesses. Classic "AP" garbage. Maybe you guess good, fine, just say, "My best guess" or whatever.

9) As you probably know, I entered a one-week 1K contest back in the day, because it suited me and I liked the week. That contest would have cost more than 3K in 2023 dollars for one week. I go where my best guess takes me.

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...nd-edmund.html

10) Time is limited. You should choose paid contests, and I formally recommend this, that suit your skills. I happen to have some skills handicapping NFL games sans spreads. There are no big ticket contests for that.

To summarize, mickey thinks you can estimate overlays using simple math without understanding which entries are coordinated. You cannot. I would never try to do something for substantive money that's not in my wheelhouse. I don't remember the last time I actually bet five NFL sides in a week. Maybe this decade. Maybe not. Unlike mickey, who nonchalantly riffed about playing poker and betting sports for profit in his first GWAE interview, I am not Leonardo Da AP.

Never wanted to be, honestly. Have no interest. Personally, I think the Leonardo Da AP stuff is all snipe hunt.

Thanks for the opportunity, mickey. I would not, by the way, have entered a big-ticket college football contest this season because of the truncated games. I needed to see what effects those cut possessions had in the real world. I can go on for hours regarding this stuff, and I could answer the same questions on camera for you in three weeks. Be there or be square.

Here's Walters calculating his EV's.

In his book, Billy Walters has a system for calculating the strength of his plays. It is a "star system" but really just another way of calculating EV. He has a chart called "The Relative Value Of Each Point, NFL." You'll find the chart below. This is the chart that shows the chances of exactly hitting the spread. which we've had on here earlier. His "star system" looks like this. The higher the percentage the more he bets.:

5.5% = .5 star
7% = 1 star
9% = 1.5 stars
11% = 2 stars
13% = 2.5 stars
15% = 3 stars


So if Walters had a power ratings differential of 2.5 and the line is -4 he has a 1.5 star bet. This is how he calculates it. There are two pertinent numbers between his power ratings differential, 2.5, and the -4 line, the numbers 3 and 4. If his team loses by 3 he wins the bet. If his team loses by 4 he pushes the bet.

So from the chart he takes the 8% that the 3 is worth and adds half the value of the 4, 1.5% to it. So at 9.5% its a 1.5 star bet.

It's his best guess, mickey. LOL. That's what it is. You can dress it up, formalize it any way you want, it's his best guess of non-random events going forward.

You missed some key points here, by the way. Why do you think Walters, who made almost all of his gambling profits betting college football and college hoops, throws an overly formal NFL bone your way?

For God's sake, man, have some brains.

I've gone through every inch of this book. I have comments on just about every paragraph of the two how-to chapters. Walters does, by the way, throw a couple valuable pieces of info to the public. But this isn't one of them.

I assign .7% bankroll per unit for my betting. I've done a version of that since 1980.That doesn't mean I'm using anything other than opinion. What, I'm "estimating EV?" LOL. C'mon, get serious. All of your comments show that your "EV" and the phrase "best guess" are synonymous.

[mickeycrimm]

Walters was calculating EV. Every noted sportsbettor uses the term. Fezzik is an actuary and uses the term. If Walters was "just guessing" he couldn't have consistently won. They would have wipe him out. What you won't admit is the EV is there and it doesn't matter that you don't know the exact decimal it falls on.

Please quit commenting on math. You have little aptitude for it.

[jbjb]

Mick, no offense, but you're starting to get kewlj syndrome over the "math" and "EV" stuff. We all know you're right, but I'll use an Evenbob term...."Don't wise up the chumps".

[redietz]

Walters was calculating EV. Every noted sportsbettor uses the term. Fezzik is an actuary and uses the term. If Walters was "just guessing" he couldn't have consistently won. They would have wipe him out. What you won't admit is the EV is there and it doesn't matter that you don't know the exact decimal it falls on.

Please quit commenting on math. You have little aptitude for it.

Either or both of you are welcome to debate me on the topic on camera. Heuristics is not a math term.

And, actually, when you are talking tenths of percentage points, it does matter when you don't know the exact decimal it falls on. The "APs" think they have precise abilities to determine value, and they don't -- primarily because you shouldn't use the math of random events to calculate non-random events. You can use it for some basic, practical ball-parking, but to think you have any kind of precision is nonsense.

I never said, once again you use quotes inappropriately, that Walters was "just guessing." He has a fine handicapping sense. He employed the best minds in the business. That is not "just guessing." It's the opposite of "just guessing."

Here's a simple question for the two of you. Read the pages mickey posted. What is clearly and obviously missing from the description of the star system? It's so curiously missing, yet it's the primary thing that should accompany the star system description. Once you figure that out, the next step is to figure out why it's not there. What are your hypotheses?

If you don't get the answers to what I just asked in five minutes or less, God Bless you.

[mickeycrimm]

"Overall gambling knowledge?" Who wants "overall gambling knowledge??" LOL. I want to win money.

"Overall gambling knowledge" is the purview of people looking for an excuse to gamble 24/7. "Overall gambling knowledge" is how Stu Ungar and Phil Ivey blew through millions of dollars.

I would never enter a big-ticket NFL sides contest. Why would I? It would be like mickey crimm trying use his machine gambling knowledge to win at poker or sports betting.

Mickey should talk to Bob Dancer sometime or watch Magnum Force.

You're an idiot. I don't WANT TO WIN MONEY, I DO WIN MONEY. I rarely have a losing day. It's routine.

[mickeycrimm]

Walters was calculating EV. Every noted sportsbettor uses the term. Fezzik is an actuary and uses the term. If Walters was "just guessing" he couldn't have consistently won. They would have wipe him out. What you won't admit is the EV is there and it doesn't matter that you don't know the exact decimal it falls on.

Please quit commenting on math. You have little aptitude for it.

Either or both of you are welcome to debate me on the topic on camera. Heuristics is not a math term.

And, actually, when you are talking tenths of percentage points, it does matter when you don't know the exact decimal it falls on. The "APs" think they have precise abilities to determine value, and they don't -- primarily because you shouldn't use the math of random events to calculate non-random events. You can use it for some basic, practical ball-parking, but to think you have any kind of precision is nonsense.

I never said, once again you use quotes inappropriately, that Walters was "just guessing." He has a fine handicapping sense. He employed the best minds in the business. That is not "just guessing." It's the opposite of "just guessing."

Here's a simple question for the two of you. Read the pages mickey posted. What is clearly and obviously missing from the description of the star system? It's so curiously missing, yet it's the primary thing that should accompany the star system description. Once you figure that out, the next step is to figure out why it's not there. What are your hypotheses?

If you don't get the answers to what I just asked in five minutes or less, God Bless you.

Redietz wrote:

"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. Unreal.
C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said."

Redietz has shown he has a low aptitude in math. Anything he says about the mathematics of sports betting is suspect. I support his right to free speech but his diatribes against gambling math should be considered misinformation.

[redietz]

Mickey, you're undoubtedly correct that I have a low math aptitude.

I only got a 740 on the math portion of the SAT. I'm sure Fezzik and Shack and yourself got much higher.