Presidential election betting

[kewlJ]

Please don't turn this into a political discussion. Save that for the politics section. I am only interested in the betting aspect.

For several cycles now, election betting markets have been more accurate than the polls in that it is people putting their money on what they think will occur, rather than just wishing what they want to occur.

On the Democratic side, there are some interesting numbers. YouWager has Biden @ +170, which is kind of interesting but not the main jist of my thoughts. Michele Obama is the second highest democrat at +600. Last week Gavin Newsome was at +700, but has dropped off as Michele Obama has risen.

Compare that to the republican side where following Trump the closest person is Nikki Haley @ +1900 (19-1). At least Nikki Haley is currently running. Both Michele Obama and Gavin Newsome aren't even currently running and they are/were much lower than odds than Haley.

I have read what is fueling this betting market. There is some though and talk that Biden will go through the primary season, winning the nomination and then come May or June, drop out of the race, presumably citing health reason, leaving the Dems to pick someone else, probably at the convention. Interesting that Kamala Harris is not even close to being considered as that replacement candidate.

Sounds like a longshot, kind of conspiracy theory to me, but it is interesting watching the betting markets react.

[MDawg]

Just another UNKewl post...compared to Tasha he's creating even more fluff threads than she was accused of creating. Fluff when you realize that the point of any of these threads is simply trying to make it seem like he does any more than tunnel dwell.

FraudJ had a highly refined blackjack story that he worked for almost 2 decades before he outed himself as the tunnel dwelling male prostitute fraud that he is.

[kewlJ]

Troll, Troll, Troll. That is ALL you do on every forum now. The great Mdawg is now just a garden variety internet troll.

[1Hit1der]

Never really thought about it, before, but, one reason that I don't post new threads is that I don't believe that I've established any gambling credentials. I mean, why read threads by imposters, or players who haven't posted any proof of any of their claims?

[MDawg]

Never really thought about it, before, but, one reason that I don't post new threads is that I don't believe that I've established any gambling credentials. I mean, why read threads by imposters, or players who haven't posted any proof of any of their claims?

And yet UNKewlJ expects us to read and comment on his fictional threads, when all he's really doing is hustling marks in casinos.

KJ is different because (1) I initially believed him, more or less, and (2) he is imo a complete fraud. I don't mean a liar, I mean a complete fraud, like catfish style. And that is not something you see every day and is really kind of fascinating.

Can't be a 20 year blackjack pro without entries. Unless of course it's a side gig while running around town looking for sugar daddies and turning tricks.....RIP

I think you joined WOV to use it as a dating site, and fabricated the blackjack story as a catfishing scheme.

Keep in mind what we're dealing with here...someone uneducated, already an outsider because of his (sometimes) claim (which who knows if even that is true?) of being gay, booted out of his own household by his own family at a young age, of course he wants to be something he's not, he's been a downtrodden outsider all his life.

[redietz]

I have made good money in election wagers over the years. I did, however, miss the opportunity (ties) of a lifetime when Trump versus Hilary. If you read the tea leaves even halfway, there were multiple points of arbitrage where you could have swung money back and forth with minimal risk. I did nothing, and it was the easiest money-maker election I have seen in my lifetime.

I would hesitate to attempt that this election cycle simply because the principals are so old. This looks like more of a Dead Pool opportunity than an election-betting opportunity.

[mickeycrimm]

Please don't turn this into a political discussion. Save that for the politics section. I am only interested in the betting aspect.

For several cycles now, election betting markets have been more accurate than the polls in that it is people putting their money on what they think will occur, rather than just wishing what they want to occur.

On the Democratic side, there are some interesting numbers. YouWager has Biden @ +170, which is kind of interesting but not the main jist of my thoughts. Michele Obama is the second highest democrat at +600. Last week Gavin Newsome was at +700, but has dropped off as Michele Obama has risen.

Compare that to the republican side where following Trump the closest person is Nikki Haley @ +1900 (19-1). At least Nikki Haley is currently running. Both Michele Obama and Gavin Newsome aren't even currently running and they are/were much lower than odds than Haley.

I have read what is fueling this betting market. There is some though and talk that Biden will go through the primary season, winning the nomination and then come May or June, drop out of the race, presumably citing health reason, leaving the Dems to pick someone else, probably at the convention. Interesting that Kamala Harris is not even close to being considered as that replacement candidate.

Sounds like a longshot, kind of conspiracy theory to me, but it is interesting watching the betting markets react.

Biden wont give up power willingly. They won’t be able to force him out. Statistically he has a 60% chance to make it to age 86. So if he’s re-elected there’s a 40% chance Kamala is the first woman president

[accountinquestion]

I read an article recently that discussed reasons why betting market odds were so off when dealing with politics. The biases are strong. It suggested the opposite of what kewl said.

I wish I knew where I read it.. was a good read.

[mickeycrimm]

Never under estimate the Uniparty. Establishment republicans hate Trump as much as democrats. Nikki Haley running as an independent in the general would sink Trump.

[redietz]

Never under estimate the Uniparty. Establishment republicans hate Trump as much as democrats. Nikki Haley running as an independent in the general would sink Trump.

This is actually a really good point, a key point for me in fact. I don't see it happening, but I've been surprised before, and it's one of two key reasons I haven't plunked down money on Trump as an underdog. The other reason was that strange things happen at conventions, and drafting Michelle as a candidate is not impossible. I don't see that, either, but I've been wrong before. If she's drafted, everything changes.

The age of both men makes this a crap shoot. I could see Trump keeling over the day after the convention. I could see people realizing Biden mentally keeled over six months ago when he actually has to participate in a debate. Could you see a Haley/Biden debate? How could you walk away from such a thing thinking Biden is a viable candidate?

[redietz]

To be clear, Trump WAS an underdog and is now pick 'em or a very marginal favorite most places. The biggest fave I have seen him is -130 at Youwager.lv. Most other places have the race a dead heat at the moment. For a great range of political bets, I suggest BetOnline.ag.

[Rob.Singer]

Michele O. is a non-factor. Nobody wants a beast like her with a Jew-hating husband as president.

Niki Haley is white noise. She's only hanging around embarrassingly, with the irrelevant hope that Trump gets thrown in jail from one of these bogus legal claims. A true bottom feeder.

Biden's a certified joke but he controls if he runs or not. There's still plenty of completely blind and stupid democrats who think he's da man. Especially illegals.

When all is said and done Trump will be in the White House once again. Age means nothing to some people and it's everything to others. Biden's a vegetable but Trump is as sharp as a tack, as usual. Morgan Freeman, at 86, shows how its done with age. Plenty of others do also. I expect to be on top of my game at 95 and beyond, having lost nothing as of today.

Trump haters....get ready to feel bad once again.

[MisterV]

Age should mean a lot...both Trump and Biden are too damn old.

Time for new blood, young blood.

Let the old dudes advise, not govern.

[redietz]

In the past, I've bet $500 here and 2K or 3K there and fired back and forth and had longshots at 20-1 and all that, but there is no way I'm betting more than $500 on this one. There is too much chance something strange happens -- deaths or cognitive incapacitation or whatever. Also, you can't really arbitrage this one because there are too many potential issues with "is someone prez after Tuesday in November or after December or after being sworn in and what if he dies in between various dates?" Plus the incapacitation questions for those dates. Just real chance of screwing yourself trying to arbitrage this one.

[1Hit1der]

“Only nut cases want to be president. This was true even in high school. Only clearly disturbed people ran for class president.”

― Kurt Vonnegut, A Man Without a Country

Trump runs again to commit more crimes to remain free, but, Biden runs again to stop him. Looks like history about to repeat itself. Can't get much clearer than that. Ha.

[MaxPen]

In the past, I've bet $500 here and 2K or 3K there and fired back and forth and had longshots at 20-1 and all that, but there is no way I'm betting more than $500 on this one. There is too much chance something strange happens -- deaths or cognitive incapacitation or whatever. Also, you can't really arbitrage this one because there are too many potential issues with "is someone prez after Tuesday in November or after December or after being sworn in and what if he dies in between various dates?" Plus the incapacitation questions for those dates. Just real chance of screwing yourself trying to arbitrage this one.

Probably better to pay the tax bill with that 5 hundo

[kewlJ]

. Looks like history about to repeat itself.

I don't think so. I truly believe one or possible both Biden and/or Trump won't be there come November.

With Trump we are in unprecedented territory with all the legal situations.

With Biden and the scenario that people are talking about, real or not, we have seen something similar before. 1968. Well I didn't see it. LBJ dropped out after the first primary, which he won, but did not receive 50% of his party's vote. 2 other candidates jumped in during the primary season, including Bobby Kennedy.

As soon as LBJ made his announcement, no one was going to be able to secure the nomination through the primary process, because some of the deadlines to get on the ballots had passed. Bobby won a lot of delegates, but not enough to win before the convention. He almost surely would have emerged with the nomination from the convention, but he didn't make it that far, throwing things into even more chaos. So Biden dropping out, at any point now before the convention would throw it to that same chaos. That almost would be fun to watch as Kamala Harris would think she is next in line, but she most definitely wouldn't be. It would be entertaining.

But if it somehow comes down to a Trump-Biden rematch, there is a question and concern I would ask each side.

For Trump: Trump lost in 2020. We know there are some people, not his base but a decent chuck of independents and republicans that are not his maga base, that have turned away from him since then. Remember Jan 6 occurred after he didn't get enough votes. That definitely turned some voters that voted for him off. So where does he make up any votes that he was short last time and anyone that has been turned off since? Who exactly is it that is going to say "I didn't vote for Trump last time, but now will"? I just don't see where those voters are coming from.

For Biden: remember that 2020 was during the covid "crisis". Many states had mail-in votes that normally don't. There is no question that the Democrats and Biden benefited from that. People that don't normally vote....aren't willing to take an hour out of their day to go to the polls, voted in 2020 because all they had to do was take a minute and fill out a ballot and drop it in the mail. So my question would be, without that benefit of mail-in vote, exactly how much does that cost Biden? 4 or 5 states were pretty close. That could easily make a difference.

Just thinking out loud. If it really comes down to Biden vs Trump II, and you knew these answers, you would know where to put your money.

[redietz]

In the past, I've bet $500 here and 2K or 3K there and fired back and forth and had longshots at 20-1 and all that, but there is no way I'm betting more than $500 on this one. There is too much chance something strange happens -- deaths or cognitive incapacitation or whatever. Also, you can't really arbitrage this one because there are too many potential issues with "is someone prez after Tuesday in November or after December or after being sworn in and what if he dies in between various dates?" Plus the incapacitation questions for those dates. Just real chance of screwing yourself trying to arbitrage this one.

Probably better to pay the tax bill with that 5 hundo

LOL. And which tax bill would that be?

[kewlJ]

Oh, one other obstacle for Trump. Everyone assumes the Supreme court is going to overturn the Colorado ruling knocking Trump off the ballot. I am not so sure. Yes there are 6 conservatives on the court. Being a conservative, appointed by a republican president, does not necessarily mean you are a Maga Trump republican. The supreme court, including members he appointed have ruled against Trump a number of times since he left office.

I think it is very possible some of the Justices are tired of Trump and all his nonsense. Probably not Thomas or Alito. But I could see Roberts or any of the 3 that Trump appointed ruling against him. It would only take 2 of those 4 to side with the 3 Liberal Justices and no more Donald Trump because other states would then follow in disqualifying him.

I am not ready to predict that, but I think there is a chance. I would put it at 25-30%.

[MaxPen]

In the past, I've bet $500 here and 2K or 3K there and fired back and forth and had longshots at 20-1 and all that, but there is no way I'm betting more than $500 on this one. There is too much chance something strange happens -- deaths or cognitive incapacitation or whatever. Also, you can't really arbitrage this one because there are too many potential issues with "is someone prez after Tuesday in November or after December or after being sworn in and what if he dies in between various dates?" Plus the incapacitation questions for those dates. Just real chance of screwing yourself trying to arbitrage this one.

Probably better to pay the tax bill with that 5 hundo

LOL. And which tax bill would that be?

Is there more than one outstanding?.....lol