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Thread: Smoking the Seeds: 2024

  1. #1

  2. #2
    Red, I am afraid YOU just don't understand what the NCAA (March Madness) basketball tournament is all about.

    If it were 32 teams, or 48 teams it would be about picking the top 32 or even 48 teams. The teams that really had any chance at all at winning the whole thing. But it hasn't been 32 or even 48 teams for decades. At 64 teams (now 68), it is about getting the best 35-40 teams in that have any sort of chance, plus being inclusive with 20+ teams from the small conferences that really have no chance to do anything other than maybe pull off 1 David vs Goliath miracle. 1 not 6 like it would take to win it all.

    THAT is what makes the tournament so special. That is why on selection Sunday, you see teams and players jumping up and down that have no chance to win the tournament. That inclusiveness is what drives ratings and interest. Every freaking small college in the country, that most people don't even know where they are located or what their mascot is, is included. Even schools with a losing record. All they have to do is get hot at their conference championship and win 3 or 4 games and they are in and everyone is googling to see where the fuck they are even located.

    My favorite team Villanova is without a doubt one of the top 68 teams in the country. They could easily beat a dozen teams in the tournament. But they are not in and rightfully so, because they lost 3 games to inferior teams way back in November before conference play even began.

    Non bettors, the few that remain, are watching and interested in these games for one reason only. They are looking for that Cinderella, David #16 or #15 that knocks off one of the big boys, a #1 or #2.


    As for us bettors, I don't know what you are complaining about. Yes, there are some lines that are out of whack. Find them, bet them and be happy. And in the meantime, lets just enjoy when one of the Davids, slings his rock and befalls a goliath.

    That is what the madness is all about, not picking the 68 best teams. And in the end one of the 30-35 "best teams" will win it all. probably one of the 12 "best" teams.
    Last edited by kewlJ; 03-21-2024 at 04:22 PM.
    Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Red, I am afraid YOU just don't understand what the NCAA (March Madness) basketball tournament is all about.

    If it were 32 teams, or 48 teams it would be about picking the top 32 or even 48 teams. The teams that really had any chance at all at winning the whole thing. But it hasn't been 32 or even 48 teams for decades. At 64 teams (now 68), it is about getting the best 35-40 teams in that have any sort of chance, plus being inclusive with 20+ teams from the small conferences that really have no chance to do anything other than maybe pull off 1 David vs Goliath miracle. 1 not 6 like it would take to win it all.

    THAT is what makes the tournament so special. That is why on selection Sunday, you see teams and players jumping up and down that have no chance to win the tournament. That inclusiveness is what drives ratings and interest. Every freaking small college in the country, that most people don't even know where they are located or what their mascot is, is included. Even schools that with losing record. All they have to do is get hot at their conference championship and win 3 or 4 games and they are in and everyone is googling to see where the fuck they are even located.

    My favorite team Villanova is without a doubt one of the top 68 teams in the country. They could easily beat a dozen teams in the tournament. But they are not in and rightfully so, because they lost 3 games to inferior teams way back in November before conference play even began.

    Non bettors, the few that remain, are watching and interested in these games for one reason only. They are looking for that Cinderella, David #16 or #15 that knocks off one of the big boys, a #1 or #2.


    As for us bettors, I don't know what you are complaining about. Yes, there are some lines that are out of whack. Find them, bet them and be happy. And in the meantime, lets just enjoy when one of the Davids, slings his rock and befalls a goliath.

    I'm sorry you missed most of the points.

    The seeds are out of whack, not the lines. And my ranting has to do with teams like Sam Houston State and Indiana State being left out while every upright Big 10 team and Virginia were put in. The rant has to do with the former ratings system laying out that Dayton and Drake and San Diego State are all top 10 teams, so the ratings system (RPI) was shelved. Today, Dayton and Nevada had to play each other while Arizona got was what essentially a bye. This screws Dayton/Nevada big-time. The argument can be made, using the RPI system the committee relied on for 20 years, that Dayton should have been a two seed, not a godawful seven with Arizona on deck.

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Red, I am afraid YOU just don't understand what the NCAA (March Madness) basketball tournament is all about.

    If it were 32 teams, or 48 teams it would be about picking the top 32 or even 48 teams. The teams that really had any chance at all at winning the whole thing. But it hasn't been 32 or even 48 teams for decades. At 64 teams (now 68), it is about getting the best 35-40 teams in that have any sort of chance, plus being inclusive with 20+ teams from the small conferences that really have no chance to do anything other than maybe pull off 1 David vs Goliath miracle. 1 not 6 like it would take to win it all.

    THAT is what makes the tournament so special. That is why on selection Sunday, you see teams and players jumping up and down that have no chance to win the tournament. That inclusiveness is what drives ratings and interest. Every freaking small college in the country, that most people don't even know where they are located or what their mascot is, is included. Even schools that with losing record. All they have to do is get hot at their conference championship and win 3 or 4 games and they are in and everyone is googling to see where the fuck they are even located.

    My favorite team Villanova is without a doubt one of the top 68 teams in the country. They could easily beat a dozen teams in the tournament. But they are not in and rightfully so, because they lost 3 games to inferior teams way back in November before conference play even began.

    Non bettors, the few that remain, are watching and interested in these games for one reason only. They are looking for that Cinderella, David #16 or #15 that knocks off one of the big boys, a #1 or #2.


    As for us bettors, I don't know what you are complaining about. Yes, there are some lines that are out of whack. Find them, bet them and be happy. And in the meantime, lets just enjoy when one of the Davids, slings his rock and befalls a goliath.

    I'm sorry you missed most of the points.

    The seeds are out of whack, not the lines. And my ranting has to do with teams like Sam Houston State and Indiana State being left out while every upright Big 10 team and Virginia were put in. The rant has to do with the former ratings system laying out that Dayton and Drake and San Diego State are all top 10 teams, so the ratings system (RPI) was shelved. Today, Dayton and Nevada had to play each other while Arizona got was what essentially a bye. This screws Dayton/Nevada big-time. The argument can be made, using the RPI system the committee relied on for 20 years, that Dayton should have been a two seed, not a godawful seven with Arizona on deck.
    I watched Indiana State probably 4 times during the year. They had a nice team. I enjoyed watching that very unconventional big dude they have. But the rules are simple for someone like them in a small conference. You have to win your conference championship to ensure you get in. They didn't!

    Just the same as the rules are clear for a bubble team like Villanova. You can NOT lose 3 games to Drexel, Penn and St Joe's in November and expect that your conference resume is enough. Those November 'cupcake' games matter.

    I also watched both Dayton and Nevada probably 6-8 times during the year (Nevada because they were often a late game in this area). Both had nice teams. teams worthy of being in the tournament. And both were in. Neither had any shot to win this tournament. But both were in and that is all they can and should have expected.

    For me being familiar with both teams, I was excited when I saw that first round matchup. And it didn't disappoint.
    Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

  5. #5
    Along the same lines as Indiana State, Grand Canyon had a fine season. I only saw them play 3 times I think, but they are fun to watch and their fan base is absolutely bonkers. I actually think they are going to give St Mary's all they can handle tomorrow and am looking forward to that game.

    But just like Indiana State, if they had not managed to win their conference championship, they would have been out despite their great season. That is the 'unofficial' rules.

    The tournament was perfect at 64 teams. I can live with the 68, but those additional 4 are stupid. At 64, the 30-35 "best" teams are in and all the small schools and conferences also have a seat at the party. And not 1 but 2 chances to claim that seat, because they can get hot and win their conference tournament. It's perfect!!! Extending it any further to ensure an Indiana State gets in would ruin it just like the NHL and NBA have ruined their playoffs by trying to include nearly everyone.
    Last edited by kewlJ; 03-21-2024 at 05:09 PM.
    Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

  6. #6
    One other thing Red. Guessing and fighting (arguing) about seeding is half the fun of this tournament.

    I have fairly large (for me) futures wagers on 2 teams to win it all. Marquette and Auburn. Both play tomorrow. I don't really think either will win it all, but I think both can advance pretty far and as early as the elite 8, I can start hedging and make a nice profit on either or both.

    I though both teams would be a 3 seed, Marquette possibly a 2 seed. This is important because if everything holds 3 seeds will be playing a 2 seed in the sweet 16. But Auburn to my great surprise and disappointment, somehow fell to a 4 seed, despite a fine season and winning their tournament. As a 4 seed, this means in the sweet 16 they will probably play a #1 instead of a 2 or 3. And the 1 seed they will play is Uconn. All things being equal I wouldn't bet them to beat Uconn. They should be playing a 2 seed and face Uconn in the elite 8, where I could start to hedge. So seeding is part of the "fun" or disappointment in this case.
    Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

  7. #7
    I didn't read any of this but I will say I found the title fairly clever.

  8. #8
    First Cinderella of 2024. #14 Oakland Golden Grizzlies beat #3 Kentucky.

    Bonuses. Calipari and Kentucky playing the slayed Goliath for the second time in 3 years. (lost to #15 St Peters in 2022)

    Half of the country figuring out that The University of Oakland is from Michigan and NOT the SF Bay area.
    Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

  9. #9
    I am usually heavily involved. Really liked 3 games. Bet only iowa state. Other 2 split. Just no time to properly research all year.

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    I am usually heavily involved. Really liked 3 games. Bet only iowa state. Other 2 split. Just no time to properly research all year.

    Well done, regnis.

    I have four futures, well, had...Kentucky at 28-1 didn't last very long. Man, that dude just does not coach in-game worth a lick. So now I have Gonzaga at 50-1, and my donation plays -- Dayton and Drake at 240-1 or thereabouts. Dayton and Drake got screwed the worst with the seedings, so I made small wagers in their honor.

    Heritage has an interesting contest. You rank the teams from 64 to 1. When a team wins a game, you get that number of points as long as they last in the tournament. This takes some cogitatin', as Jed Clampett used to say. Thus far, I'm 137th out of about 2000. Kentucky hurt, as I had them worth 56 points. Ouch.

  11. #11
    This first weekend, especially the first 2 days, today and tomorrow are such a fun few days. My favorite time of the year. Hopefully, you can have fun and make a little money. It really sucks when you pick a team to go deep, whether a futures bet to win it all or playing a pool and they get upset and knocked out in the first round by a double digit seed.

    There really is such a gap in players that this shouldn't happen as much as it does. Charles Barkley likes to say that several of these programs like Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, North Carolina, Arizona always have multiple McDonalds all American, while the team they are playing and sometimes lose to have players that eat and sometimes work part-time at McDonalds. That is harsh, but it is true, especially in this day and age of "paid players". These teams have no business losing some of these games and yet certain programs seem to lose to double digit seeds fairly regularly, Kentucky and Arizona being two of them.

    I won't pick either to go deep because of this history. But that is what makes these couple days so much fun.

    On individual games, I have bet a lot of half time scores, both unders, which is something I have been betting with college basketball for a couple months and underdogs in this tournament (at least the first round). You see so many games that the underdog can keep it close for a half and then the favorite pulls away.

    Playing the bonus whoring game, I need some volume betting, more than just a game or two and this seems to be working for several months of college basketball. I haven't had time to do the research and see if it a viable strategy over many years. I suppose Red, can tell me that it is not.
    Last edited by kewlJ; 03-21-2024 at 08:57 PM.
    Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

  12. #12
    Jack Gohlke.

    He is the dude from the Oakland team that beat Kentucky that hit 10 3-pt shots. His line 10-20 for 32 points. He took 20 shots, all of them 3 pointers and hit 50%. And that coming off the bench, although he did play 36 minutes.

    Now while that line, 20 3-point shots all 3 pointers, no 2-point shots seems odd, he only made a total of four 2-point shots all year. So this guy is definitely a 3 point specialist. For the year he hit his 3 pointers at 37.4% which is pretty good, but not fantastic.

    So here is my question for you Redietz or anyone really that has any interest. Did this guy earn himself some money tonight? I am not suggesting that this game makes him the next Steph Curry by any means. He won't be drafted or likely get any kind of contract, other than maybe a free agent invite, or one of those short 10 day contracts, but even those in this day and age come with 6 figure or more contracts. So did he earn himself that.....some kind of invite, worth some money with this performance tonight?
    Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

  13. #13
    UNKewlJ back on here pretending that he's doing anything more than tunnel dwelling and turning tricks.

    Originally Posted by MDawg
    How about this one UNKewlJ? What well known AP said this:

    I thought that was common knowledge about Kewlj being a male prostitute.
    I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  14. #14
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Jack Gohlke.

    He is the dude from the Oakland team that beat Kentucky that hit 10 3-pt shots. His line 10-20 for 32 points. He took 20 shots, all of them 3 pointers and hit 50%. And that coming off the bench, although he did play 36 minutes.

    Now while that line, 20 3-point shots all 3 pointers, no 2-point shots seems odd, he only made a total of four 2-point shots all year. So this guy is definitely a 3 point specialist. For the year he hit his 3 pointers at 37.4% which is pretty good, but not fantastic.

    So here is my question for you Redietz or anyone really that has any interest. Did this guy earn himself some money tonight? I am not suggesting that this game makes him the next Steph Curry by any means. He won't be drafted or likely get any kind of contract, other than maybe a free agent invite, or one of those short 10 day contracts, but even those in this day and age come with 6 figure or more contracts. So did he earn himself that.....some kind of invite, worth some money with this performance tonight?

    Maybe, but probably not, unless you mean Europe. Fletcher McGee was the ultimate. Look him up. I saw him play in person several times. Great player, but not an NBA player.

  15. #15
    And speaking of 10-day contracts, quick story. I had the (mis) fortune of playing against a guy who was on the Knicks' 10-day contract rotation. If you're wondering how good those 10-day contract guys are when you're on the court against them, I'll tell you. We were playing in a "small man's tournament" in Hazleton; you had to be 6'2" or less.

    We had a good team; I was the co-coach and last guy off the bench. We had a bunch of guys who averaged 20 points in high school and for Division 3 teams and an all-time high school assists leader, but no D-1 players. We were probably the 11th or 12th best team in the field of 32. Unfortunately, we got matched against this guy and his team. We played zone, and opening possession, he split the front of the zone, took off from a foot inside the foul line, and dunked. It got worse from there. I got to guard him for a dozen possessions and probably committed three fouls per possession, although only two total were called. It gave me a real appreciation for the 10-day NBA contract guards. LOL.

    We lost by 30. And we played a half decent game.

    Oh yeah, the team we played finished second, I think.
    Last edited by redietz; 03-22-2024 at 09:53 AM.

  16. #16
    .
    Kansas got by Samford largely due to a really bad foul call by the ref when the Samford player blocked the Kansas player's shot
    you can see on the replay that the Samford player didn't even touch the Kansas player
    Samford would probably have gotten the ball back down by 1 with 14 seconds left
    (I never even heard of Samford until today)

    no reviews - a crying shame

    you can see the totally clean block and the ref blow the call at 1:59



    please don't feed the trolls

  17. #17
    Yeah, missing a call like that in the final 20 second that will decide the game is unacceptable. They review almost everything including whether they should put 2 tenths of a seconds more on the clock and there is no reviewing that deciding play? Maybe they need 1 coaches challenge for such a critical moment?

    But really.... Shouldn't even need that. Just review such a critical call that decides the game. Get it right!

  18. #18
    Now, kewlJ, you can't have both Kentucky and Kansas going down the same day. They did, after all, put the blue (uniforms) in "blue bloods."

    Samford beat the local squad, ETSU, for the Southern Conference title. I saw the regular season game at ETSU where ETSU gave Samford a good run. Lost by three. Samford spanked them at Samford, then the title game was close. I did not think Samford had the size to deal with Kansas, frankly. Samford is small. They did a good job in this game and a great job for the season.

    Terrible call. I guess somebody didn't want to write a second check to the Southern Conference.

  19. #19
    .
    Zach Edey - 7'4" - 30 points and 21 rebounds as Purdue crushes Grambling

    he's way, way too much for college boys - I don't even think NBA pros can handle him

    the well known basketball powerhouse GRAND CANYON plays Alabama next_______________

    .
    what odds would you put on GRAND CANYON to win it all____________?

    more than 1000/1_________?__________

    they easily handled Saint Mary's (3900 students) in the first round

    .





    .
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 03-23-2024 at 06:44 AM.
    please don't feed the trolls

  20. #20
    .
    on the women's side Audie Crooks - a very large 6'3" freshman for Iowa State is crushing

    her game is in the paint - she barely jumps when she scores - no more than one inch off of the floor

    you won't see her doing any slam dunks - no chance

    and yes - there are some women who can dunk
    .





    .
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 03-23-2024 at 07:38 AM.
    please don't feed the trolls

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