Smoking the Seeds: 2024

[MDawg]

How can someone who can't count bet sports?

Meantime you don't know can't remember the difference between the numerals 0. 1. 3. 4.

"I never went to college"
0

"I went to college for a year"
1

"I went to college for 3 years"
3

"I graduated from college"
4

Anything he has to say on any subject is just the result of "studying up" - no actual experience with any of this. He had a lot to say about blackjack too, until he was shown to be a complete fraud.

The level of compulsive liar he is, is that he can't even discuss his lies about sports betting without interjecting the lie about that he went to college.

Guess who said this UNKewlJ?

He's pretty much a pathological liar you can't believe anything he says. But also probably a sociopath and they have no guilt no shame no embarrassment. They simply make up lies to cover the other lies.

Could it be perhaps that well known AP you used to think is on your side?

But it was so well said I decided to just adopt it for myself.

[Half Smoke]

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a look back at maybe the greatest NCAA Championship game - 1983
NC State's Derek Wittenburg took a shot and missed it badly - way short
but Lorenzo Charles saw it would be short and dunked it in to get the win by 2 points while Hakeem Olajuwon just stood by and watched
beating Houston - they called that Houston team "Phi Slamma Jamma"
Hakeem "The Dream" had a nightmare that night________
Hakeem went on to Hall of Fame greatness and Lo Charles just faded away
but nobody who ever saw that play he made will ever forget him

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[Half Smoke]

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I talked down N.C. State but actually I would love to see them pull it off -
very improbable but it would be so exciting
they were only 9-11 in their own Conference and were 4-7 away and somehow made it to the Final 4
they've now won 9 in a row
maybe they can pull off some more magic and fell Edey the way they did Hakeem in the 80s
I wouldn't bet on them - but Wow - would I love to see it -

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[Half Smoke]

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NIT Championship game tomorrow night - Indiana State vs. Seton Hall

Indiana State - 166 moneyline - 2 bets

Indiana State -2.5 spread - 1 bet___________Fan Duel shows the best line right now - it's early

the game is on a neutral court but it's in Indianapolis
INST is 9-4 away and Seton Hall is 7-9 away

INST is averaging 87.3 pts. and their opponents are averaging just 75.9 points

Seton Hall is averaging 74.7 points and their opponents are averaging 71.4 points


might be pretty obvious but anyway, if a player doesn't want to make 3 bets on just 1 game he can divide his normal betting amount by 3 - as long as his normal betting amount is at least 3 times greater than the minimum bets - and I believe most books have pretty low minimums

that's what I would do - so if it's a loss - I would count it as losing 1 bet instead of 3 - in terms of amount lost

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[Half Smoke]

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for tomorrow's semifinal -

NC State + 9.5

Ala/UConn___________over__________160.5


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[kewlJ]

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for tomorrow's semifinal -

NC State + 9.5

Ala/UConn___________over__________160.5


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If this were NOT the final four and these two games were talking place last week in the elite 8, I would like and be betting these two games the exact same way you are picking. BUT, it is the final 4 and that means the games are in a football stadium with the raised court. Over the last decade 75% of the teams in the final 4 games and final games, with were played in football stadium shot a lower percentage of 3 pointers than they did during the rest of the tournament. This has become known as the "dome effect". But what it really is, is that the 3 point shooters, especially corner shots, look very different than players are used to. The background and depth perception throws them off.

The exception was 2016 when Villanova and North Carolina both shot over 50% from 3 point line in Energy stadium in Houston. Not sure what about that stadium or set up didn't seem to bother shooters like it does in almost every other final four.

Just thought I would throw this out there in case you are not familiar.

If there is a "dome effect" in play this year, I suspect it will hurt NC state. They like to throw the ball into their big guy and when he is doubled he kicks it out for a 3. If those 3's aren't hitting at their normal rate, they might be in trouble. Purdue relies less on the threes.

In the other game, Bama, and Uconn, I just think this effect may keep the score down some as well. I am going with the under in both games and halftime under in both games (to avoid that parade to the foul line in the final 90 seconds). I think I Like the unders in the Purdue.NC state game a little more and will be betting more on that game.

[MDawg]

Anything he has to say on any subject is just the result of "studying up" - no actual experience with any of this. He had a lot to say about blackjack too, until he was shown to be a complete fraud.

[Half Smoke]

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for tomorrow's semifinal -

NC State + 9.5

Ala/UConn___________over__________160.5


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If this were NOT the final four and these two games were talking place last week in the elite 8, I would like and be betting these two games the exact same way you are picking. BUT, it is the final 4 and that means the games are in a football stadium with the raised court. Over the last decade 75% of the teams in the final 4 games and final games, with were played in football stadium shot a lower percentage of 3 pointers than they did during the rest of the tournament. This has become known as the "dome effect". But what it really is, is that the 3 point shooters, especially corner shots, look very different than players are used to. The background and depth perception throws them off.

The exception was 2016 when Villanova and North Carolina both shot over 50% from 3 point line in Energy stadium in Houston. Not sure what about that stadium or set up didn't seem to bother shooters like it does in almost every other final four.

Just thought I would throw this out there in case you are not familiar.

If there is a "dome effect" in play this year, I suspect it will hurt NC state. They like to throw the ball into their big guy and when he is doubled he kicks it out for a 3. If those 3's aren't hitting at their normal rate, they might be in trouble. Purdue relies less on the threes.

In the other game, Bama, and Uconn, I just think this effect may keep the score down some as well. I am going with the under in both games and halftime under in both games (to avoid that parade to the foul line in the final 90 seconds). I think I Like the unders in the Purdue.NC state game a little more and will be betting more on that game.

very insightful post
I googled it several different ways and didn't find anything about this
so you may very well have found something that has not been factored it to the lines


Edit - I did find one story about this - linked

because of your post I'm going to change one of my picks -

I will stay with NC State +9.5 but I will pick NC State/Purdue under 146.5 and Ala/UConn under 161.5

and I'll go with your picks on the halftime unders - NC State/Purdue under 68.5 and Ala/UConn under 76.5 (DraftKings)


https://www.si.com/college/purdue/to...uickly-in-dome
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[kewlJ]

I didn't mean for you to change your pick and take no responsibility for that decision.

The data I saw, and I will try to find it again was interesting. It covered a 10 year span. The overall 3 point shooting numbers were down for the teams as a group but not terribly so. Bit there was an outlier. It was the previously mentioned 2016 final 4 at Energy stadium in Houston. Both Villanova and North Carolina shot 60% in that championship game and Villanova shot 59% for both games. So for whatever reason this bias is in effect, it didn't seem to matter at that location.

But if you remove that outlier game from the mix, the overall numbers for the entire group are significantly lower.

Now that I have posted this data, today and bet based on it, teams will probably shoot lights out today.

[Half Smoke]

I didn't mean for you to change your pick and take no responsibility for that decision.

The data I saw, and I will try to find it again was interesting. It covered a 10 year span. The overall 3 point shooting numbers were down for the teams as a group but not terribly so. Bit there was an outlier. It was the previously mentioned 2016 final 4 at Energy stadium in Houston. Both Villanova and North Carolina shot 60% in that championship game and Villanova shot 59% for both games. So for whatever reason this bias is in effect, it didn't seem to matter at that location.

But if you remove that outlier game from the mix, the overall numbers for the entire group are significantly lower.

Now that I have posted this data, today and bet based on it, teams will probably shoot lights out today.

no problem
you are in no way responsible for my picks posting
I changed because I thought your analysis was better than mine - something I hadn't considered and that seems pretty significant
whatever the results I guess we'll both be alive tomorrow to make some more picks_________

UConn has been under that full game total for almost all of its games
Bama will push the pace and the o/u I think will depend on whether or not UConn tries to match their pace
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[kewlJ]

Unders, both half and game, were fairly easy in the first game. These were my big bets for the day. NC state shot 24% from 3 point line. Purdue shot a decent 40%. Not sure if you can attribute NC state to this "dome effect". I am not ready to go there, but the data for more than a decade suggests something.

I have both unders (half and game for the second game), but am a lot less sure about these bets. They are less than my bets in the first game. Almost wish I had just passed on it. Pace numbers, which I use for college basketball suggests an over game, which conflicts with this "dome effect".

[MDawg]

The UNKewlJ claims consist of reading something on the 'net, studying up on the topic, and then posting online to make it appear as if he knows something about the matter.
Mostly, UNKewlJ is in a, as AccountInQuestion has put it: Neverending quest for street creds on the internet.

[kewlJ]

Well Half Smoke, both games went under along with the first half of the first game. 3 out of 4 isn't bad, especially hitting my two larger wagers.

Bit since 3 of the 4 teams hit 40% or better from 3 point line, I don't think this "dome effect" had any effect. I think it was just a case of when you get into the big games, playoffs and final 4 type games, defense always seems to take center stage. And not just basketball. Every possession, every play just becomes more important in these closer type playoff atmosphere games.

[MDawg]

The UNKewl one was a liar, and like most liars, he was constantly changing his stories, altering time and personnel from one telling to the next. One time he would tell a story about someone, next time he would switch the story around to give himself the lead. He would sit in the casino coffee shop over coffee and pound cake, talking at random about his experiences, posting constantly on internet forums, plotting ways to take down all those he is envious of, never actually entering the casino, afraid like a nervous poodle to even play.

[Half Smoke]

Well Half Smoke, both games went under along with the first half of the first game. 3 out of 4 isn't bad, especially hitting my two larger wagers.

Bit since 3 of the 4 teams hit 40% or better from 3 point line, I don't think this "dome effect" had any effect. I think it was just a case of when you get into the big games, playoffs and final 4 type games, defense always seems to take center stage. And not just basketball. Every possession, every play just becomes more important in these closer type playoff atmosphere games.

yes, very good calls on your part

the first game was way, way under - lots of ugly misses

[Half Smoke]

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women's championship today 3:00 p.m.

under 160.5 - I counted S.C. going 32- 4 under that total - their last 2 games the totals were 137 and 128_______very tough D

probably quite a bit of nervousness or tension that may affect shooting negatively

S.C. is the dominant pick

this is one bet divided into 5 smaller bets - each bet one fifth of usual amount

S.C. on the moneyline -278 4 times for a win if they don't cover

and one time on the spread -6.5

look for the great Raven Johnson of S.C. to get even_________________glta


https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/le...ketball/wncaab

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[Half Smoke]

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I'll add under 76 first half total -120 to my picks for womens champ game today - S.C./Iowa


https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/le...ategory=halves

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[MDawg]

The Gossage—Vardebedian Papers


Two people pretending to place sports bets, both cheating.

[Keystone]

The Gossage—Vardebedian Papers


Two people pretending to place sports bets, both cheating.

Here we have MCunt still obsessing over another man.

Total fucking loser

[Garnabby]

Here we have MCunt still obsessing over another man. Total fucking loser

---> Cosmological Letters on the Arrangement of the Universe.

https://anagram-solver.net/Here%20we...r?partial=true


Even with a post a day. Ha.


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