Smoking the Seeds: 2024

[kewlJ]

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Zach Edey - 7'4" - 30 points and 21 rebounds as Purdue crushes Grambling

he's way, way too much for college boys - I don't even think NBA pros can handle him

the well known basketball powerhouse GRAND CANYON plays Alabama next_______________

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what odds would you put on GRAND CANYON to win it all____________?

more than 1000/1_________?__________

they easily handled Saint Mary's (3900 students) in the first round.

Zach Edey is a monster. At the college level he completely changes the game for an opponent. It isn't just the scoring 20 some point or grabbing every rebound, but opponents really lose any kind of inside game they might have because he will block or alter shots. teams have to rely more on their outside game and Purdue should be ready for that.

I am not sure how that translate to the NBA because the game is faster and he is so "methodical". But with that size, hard to imagine he won't adjust and fit in and have success. he is not the most likeable person from a fan point of view. He doesn't look like he is having any fun at all out there. Maybe that is just his make-up. It just feels like Purdue will lose a close game at some point.

As for Grand Canyon, I had seen them play and knew they were sort of special. They have a lot of talent, some of it very raw talent for the small school (not really that small @ 100,000 students) and conference they are in. I knew they were going to surprise and when I saw that St Mary's matchup I was all over that with the half time under and GC +points and a smaller bet to win outright. And mentioned it a few days ago.

The upcoming Alabama game looks to be very interesting. Bama is a high scoring team (scored 100 points yesterday), but GC also usually is able to score a lot, despite having to play the game yesterday to St Mary's slower style. I expect a shootout and I expect GC will hold it's own. They may not win, but they will be there for most of the game and maybe, just maybe even at the end.

[redietz]

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Zach Edey - 7'4" - 30 points and 21 rebounds as Purdue crushes Grambling

he's way, way too much for college boys - I don't even think NBA pros can handle him

the well known basketball powerhouse GRAND CANYON plays Alabama next_______________

.
what odds would you put on GRAND CANYON to win it all____________?

more than 1000/1_________?__________

they easily handled Saint Mary's (3900 students) in the first round.

Zach Edey is a monster. At the college level he completely changes the game for an opponent. It isn't just the scoring 20 some point or grabbing every rebound, but opponents really lose any kind of inside game they might have because he will block or alter shots. teams have to rely more on their outside game and Purdue should be ready for that.

I am not sure how that translate to the NBA because the game is faster and he is so "methodical". But with that size, hard to imagine he won't adjust and fit in and have success. he is not the most likeable person from a fan point of view. He doesn't look like he is having any fun at all out there. Maybe that is just his make-up. It just feels like Purdue will lose a close game at some point.

As for Grand Canyon, I had seen them play and knew they were sort of special. They have a lot of talent, some of it very raw talent for the small school (not really that small @ 100,000 students) and conference they are in. I knew they were going to surprise and when I saw that St Mary's matchup I was all over that with the half time under and GC +points and a smaller bet to win outright. And mentioned it a few days ago.

The upcoming Alabama game looks to be very interesting. Bama is a high scoring team (scored 100 points yesterday), but GC also usually is able to score a lot, despite having to play the game yesterday to St Mary's slower style. I expect a shootout and I expect GC will hold it's own. They may not win, but they will be there for most of the game and maybe, just maybe even at the end.

While I have Purdue as the fourth best team overall in the Heritage contest, the problem with taking them is that the 2024 college game has a lot of possessions compared to 15 years ago, and more borderline calls are made for offenses with the current charge/block and impedance rules. So any team that funnels a lot of action to him might create foul problems for him. That's how they are most likely to lose, I think. I'm not sure they can get through the tournament without hitting games where he sits some minutes.

[Garnabby]

When I get lost without reference to the position of the sun, I try to through, nay, throw, in the odd left turn to counter the natural tendency of right-handed people to involuntarily veer to the right. Ha.

[redietz]

When I get lost without reference to the position of the sun, I try to through, nay, throw, in the odd left turn to counter the natural tendency of right-handed people to involuntarily veer to the right. Ha.

Is there a reason you post a non sequitur response regarding a topic you know nothing about in a thread that managed to stay relatively focused and on topic? If you want attention, just post a video of you jumping up and down or something.

[Garnabby]

When I get lost without reference to the position of the sun, I try to through, nay, throw, in the odd left turn to counter the natural tendency of right-handed people to involuntarily veer to the right. Ha.

Is there a reason you post a non sequitur response regarding a topic you know nothing about in a thread that managed to stay relatively focused and on topic? If you want attention, just post a video of you jumping up and down or something.

Okay, Mr. Bond, trying to get laid. Thought that I'd try to point you in the right direction. Ha.

[Half Smoke]

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okay - I know everybody has been waiting for this_______________
my 5 star pick for today - loosen up on that green stuff for this one


Alabama/UNC

UNDER the total of 173.5 which I'm pretty sure is the highest total set for any tournament game

Alabama has gone over that total in 4 of its last 6 games but they only scored 72 against Grand Canyon in their last game and Grand Canyon got 61 for a total of 133

UNC has gone under that total in all of its last 6 games and in 4 of its last 6 games and in 3 of its last 4 its held the opponent to scoring in the 60s

the most points scored in a UNC game in the last 6 games is 163

edit - I just counted UNC going under that total 33-3 for the entire season

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[Half Smoke]

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re the above post -

as KJ indicated it's a better deal if you can get a halftime total very close to 87 - I don't have an account and I can't find any halftime totals

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[Half Smoke]

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lost that under - hoping to set things right today

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I have 3 tourney picks for today

Purdue, the fave -3.5 over Tenn_____________Purdue has beaten all 3 teams they have faced in the tourney by double digits or more

I counted them this season winning every single game that they won by more than 3.5 except for one

I like NC State +7.5 over Duke__________they split this year in their ACC contests__________NC State has won 8 games in a row - and they beat Duke on March 14 in the ACC tourney

I'll take NC State/Duke UNDER 142.5___________in their 2 games against each other they totaled 143 in each game

I think the pressure of the tourney might effect their shooting negatively, and Duke only totaled 105 in its last game and NC State only totaled 125


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[Half Smoke]

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Purdue won and Edey was great and that's a big story but Tenn's Dalton Knecht with 37 had one of the greatest games I've ever seen in tourney play

the dude was on fire

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[kewlJ]

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lost that under - hoping to set things right today

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I have 3 tourney picks for today

Purdue, the fave -3.5 over Tenn_____________Purdue has beaten all 3 teams they have faced in the tourney by double digits or more

I counted them this season winning every single game that they won by more than 3.5 except for one

I like NC State +7.5 over Duke__________they split this year in their ACC contests__________NC State has won 8 games in a row - and they beat Duke on March 14 in the ACC tourney

I'll take NC State/Duke UNDER 142.5___________in their 2 games against each other they totaled 143 in each game

I think the pressure of the tourney might effect their shooting negatively, and Duke only totaled 105 in its last game and NC State only totaled 125


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Very nice. Congrats Half Smoke. Half time under was a little easier than the game under.

[Half Smoke]

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KJ - can you provide me with a link where I can see halftime totals______?_________I don't have an account - I just like to make picks -

the one time a saw a halftime total it was Alabama/UNC and the total was 173.5 and the halftime total I saw was 82.5 - way less than half - not a good deal imo - is that typical__? - for the halftime total to be way less than half the game total__?

thanks


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[kewlJ]

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KJ - can you provide me with a link where I can see halftime totals______?_________I don't have an account - I just like to make picks -

the one time a saw a halftime total it was Alabama/UNC and the total was 173.5 and the halftime total I saw was 82.5 - way less than half - not a good deal imo - is that typical__? - for the halftime total to be way less than half the game total__?

thanks
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You can look at the lines without an account at Youwager.com, I believe.

For basketball the half time over unders are not half of the totals if that is what you are thinking. The half totals are a little less than half of the game totals because they have already factored in the extra points scored in the last minute or two with all the fouling that occurs at the end of the game.(more so in college than the pros).

But it is still worth it. In a lot of these games the first half and particularly the first half of the first half, are pretty low scoring as the teams are feeling each other out. It is very common to see games that are 12-10, or scores like that 10 minutes in.

The other thing I like about betting the half time unders rather than game under is you don't have to worry about overtime screwing you. Last weekend in the second round of NCAA there were 3 games that went to overtime, one of those went to 2 overtimes. If you like and bet the under for a game and then it goes overtime, you are probably screwed.
That is why I have been betting half unders on those games that I think will be lower scoring games. You don't have to worry about overtime or all that stupid fouling at the end of the game.

[Half Smoke]

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some picks for tomorrow's NIT matchup

it's on a neutral court but Utah is 2-9 away and Indi State is 13-4 away and the game is being played in Indianapolis (but not on Inst home court)

picking INST on the moneyline -142 (draftkings) - giving up about $20 profit compared to the spread

and UNDER 78 - 115 halftime total

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[Half Smoke]

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a few hours after I posted the moneyline changed to -162 and the spread went from -2.5 to -3.5__________the early bird gets the worm

DraftKings charges more juice on their halftime totals - 115 instead of -110

[MDawg]

UNKewlJ still posting occasionally trying to make it seem like he engages in something other than male prostitution.

I do find it hard to believe that a guy who's admittedly only given minimal action gets 21k in bonuses with only a 4.7 x rollover. No need to tell me you get better deals when negotiating with your account manager, I bet I told you that in the first place.

I have seen upwards of 20k+ losses and they are unwilling to give even 1k in deposit bonuses with less than a 10x rollover. Yet you, a small bettor managed to get 21k in bonuses with an average of 4.7 x wagering requirements. That's mostly unheard of today on any of the top 20 offshore joints. Obviously a complete big gambling degenerate might get something special.

[Half Smoke]

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KJ obviously knows quite a bit about sports betting and basketball

I know enough about it to garner that from his posts

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[Half Smoke]

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the NCAA is very unhappy about prop bets involving individual players
some players are being harassed if they underperform
and there is the chance of collusion and criminality if deals are made
some states have already banned prop bets on NCAA games

in 2007 the FBI found that NBA ref Tim Donaghy had been betting on games that he officiated
Donaghy was making bets with the Mob
there were allegations that 2 referees fixed an NBA playoff game
Donaghy went to prison
a book was written about this and it later became a movie


https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...lege-athletes/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Donaghy

https://www.amazon.com/Inside-Game-t.../dp/1692360159


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[kewlJ]

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in 2007 the FBI found that NBA ref Tim Donaghy had been betting on games that he officiated
Donaghy was making bets with the Mob
there were allegations that 2 referees fixed an NBA playoff game
Donaghy went to prison
a book was written about this and it later became a movie

This year I have been using "pace of game" more as a predictive indicator. Pace of game is more than just looking for teams that score in the 60's or score in the 80's (college) or regularly score 125+ a game (in the pros). Pace of game is more about how long each possession is. There are teams that like to get a shot up in the first 10 seconds. If you can slow them down into using 15-20 seconds (college) you are controlling the pace of the game. There are "pace numbers" for each team that are indicative of this. You can still have a game where both teams score in the 70's easily topping the over, even when one team has controlled the pace of the game.

One of the factors that can really screw you when looking for a slower paced game is the referee. Without anything suspicious, you will see games where every little bump is called a foul. Both teams are over the bonus half way through either half and the game is an endless parade to the foul line. Announcers will often describe this as calling the game "tightly". Then you will see another game where the players are practically mugging each other on every play and nothing is being called. Announcers will say something like "they are letting them play".

The difference in these two situations can easily add 20 points to either halves total. A game with a slow pace that maybe have been 31-29 at half time becomes a game that is 42-39.

If a referee was going to fix a game, I think this would be the less obvious way to do it, rather than a bunch of one-sided calls that favor one team. (and this probably happens imo).

[Half Smoke]

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in 2007 the FBI found that NBA ref Tim Donaghy had been betting on games that he officiated
Donaghy was making bets with the Mob
there were allegations that 2 referees fixed an NBA playoff game
Donaghy went to prison
a book was written about this and it later became a movie

This year I have been using "pace of game" more as a predictive indicator. Pace of game is more than just looking for teams that score in the 60's or score in the 80's (college) or regularly score 125+ a game (in the pros). Pace of game is more about how long each possession is. There are teams that like to get a shot up in the first 10 seconds. If you can slow them down into using 15-20 seconds (college) you are controlling the pace of the game. There are "pace numbers" for each team that are indicative of this. You can still have a game where both teams score in the 70's easily topping the over, even when one team has controlled the pace of the game.

One of the factors that can really screw you when looking for a slower paced game is the referee. Without anything suspicious, you will see games where every little bump is called a foul. Both teams are over the bonus half way through either half and the game is an endless parade to the foul line. Announcers will often describe this as calling the game "tightly". Then you will see another game where the players are practically mugging each other on every play and nothing is being called. Announcers will say something like "they are letting them play".

The difference in these two situations can easily add 20 points to either halves total. A game with a slow pace that maybe have been 31-29 at half time becomes a game that is 42-39.

If a referee was going to fix a game, I think this would be the less obvious way to do it, rather than a bunch of one-sided calls that favor one team. (and this probably happens imo).

good points
the tourney games I saw the refs are letting them play - they seem to be calling very few fouls and letting it go in situations that looked like an obvious foul
and of course, Zach Edey gets mugged several times per game and they let it go

I don't ever recall seeing college games called that way before


back in the day I played NCAA Division 1 hoops for a small College
this is not a big brag - just a little brag
I was very good for a h.s. player - 18 p.p.g. my Junior year
but I wasn't great - not even close
a little guy, I could compete well with just about any Division 1 guard - except for the great ones - I was quick and I could be bothersome on D

my claim to fame -
my little College - 3,000 students played Pitt - 30,000 students
this is not uncommon - I think the big colleges do this and think of it as a scrimmage - not a real game
of course Pitt beat us - but surprisingly not by all that much - iirc 12 or 14
in the Pitt game I had a 3 point play on all American and NBA and ABA All Star Billy Knight
the funny thing is - he didn't foul me - he didn't even touch me - but the ref called

other greats I got to get out onto the playground courts with:
John Thompson, Austin Carr - and many other playground greats who are not known names

Austin Carr was by far the greatest player I ever got out onto a court with (playground) - he was totally awesome - just completely unstoppable - no dazzle to his game just rock solid fundamentals

his 61 points in an NCAA Tournament game is a record that still stands from more than 50 years ago and may never be broken

ancient history - but fun to recall


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[kewlJ]

You probably know this, but a lot of people don't know that some of the bigger schools actually pay the smaller schools or lesser schools to play them. This can occur even when both are division 1 schools. There was a story here in Vegas a few years back when UNLV football played Ohio State and Michigan away in back to back years, losing both badly, as expected. the thing was it was a big payday for UNLV which allowed them to upgrade facilities and stuff that they otherwise wouldn't have the money for.

This happens regularly in both football and basketball. For the bigger or stronger school it is supposed to be an easy win on their schedule, while the other school gets that payday. problem is that now especially in basketball, that gap between the power schools has closed somewhat. They have to be careful or they could end up with a costly loss to a supposed "cupcake school", AND paying the other school.