Dan Druff's 2024 MLB picks

[Dan Druff]

MLB opening day

Boston (Bello) +131 at Seattle (Castillo)

[Dan Druff]

Won first pick above.

Today:

Mets (Houser) -131 vs Detroit (Mize)

[AxelWolf]

Won first pick above.

Today:

Mets (Houser) -131 vs Detroit (Mize)

Dan, what's your overall MLB record?

[Dan Druff]

Seattle (L. Castillo) +104 at Toronto (Berrios)

[Dan Druff]

Cubs +126 at Milwaukee

[Dan Druff]

Lost Seattle, won the Cubs, and the Detroit one from April 2 was rained out.

Presently 2-1, +1.57 units


A PFA Radio listener messaged me that he felt Boston/Baltimore under was good today.

I agree.

Not only are two hot pitchers (Rodriguez and Whitlock) going, but it's cold and foggy.

The only caveat? Rodriguez seems to have chronic issues with the HR ball, and not just this year. So don't blame me if he gives up a few multi-run HR.

Boston (Whitlock) vs Baltimore (G. Rodriguez) - Under 8.5 -117 (u8 +100 ok)

[Dan Druff]

Hate betting baseball totals sometimes.

2-1 after 7.

3-3, and we go to extras.

Baltimore explodes, goes up 9-3, final is 9-4.

Total joke

[kewlJ]

Hate betting baseball totals sometimes.

2-1 after 7.

3-3, and we go to extras.

Baltimore explodes, goes up 9-3, final is 9-4.

Total joke

If you are an unders player, there is nothing worse than having the game go as you expected only to get squashed by the stupid overtime rules of MLB (extra innings) or college football that encourage multiple scoring in the overtime. For these reasons, plus all the fouling and scoring in basketball at the end of the game, I usually limit my under wagers to halftimes (or first 5 innings in baseball) to eliminate all this nonsense.

Additionally, baseball the lines including run lines are based on starting pitchers, who in this modern era only pitch 5 or 6 innings anyway. So why make a wager based on starting pitching when the results likely will be determined by bullpens.

When I like an under I bet the first 5 innings or first half of a game. When I like an over I bet the entire game. And if I like or am looking at an over in baseball, I consider the teams bullpen as much, if not more than starting pitchers. There are teams with lousy bullpens (like Cincinatti) that I will bet an over knowing that even if the game is going along under at 2-2 in the 7th inning, I have a reasonable chance to get to the over.

[MDawg]

AxelWolf negates UNKewlJ sports betting:

I do find it hard to believe that a guy who's admittedly only given minimal action gets 21k in bonuses with only a 4.7 x rollover. No need to tell me you get better deals when negotiating with your account manager, I bet I told you that in the first place.

I have seen upwards of 20k+ losses and they are unwilling to give even 1k in deposit bonuses with less than a 10x rollover. Yet you, a small bettor managed to get 21k in bonuses with an average of 4.7 x wagering requirements. That's mostly unheard of today on any of the top 20 offshore joints. Obviously a complete big gambling degenerate might get something special.

[Dan Druff]

Oakland (P. Blackburn) -128 vs Washington (Irvin)

Jake Irvin has given up a lot of hard contact, and I don’t have faith he will turn it around in Oakland.

Somehow Blackburn, never a good pitcher, was stellar in his first 2 starts. Can he make it 3?

[Dan Druff]

Oakland blew a 1-0 lead in the 9th, went to extras, and they got it. Phew.

Today:

Shota Imanaga has been amazing thus for, with a 12/0 K-BB ratio, and a 0.00 ERA through 10 innings.

Seattle's Emerson Hancock has had velocity issues. He showed up in the spring with a 97 mph two-seamer and 90 mph changeup. In his last outing, those figures were at 92.9 and 87.3. Something is wrong.

Cubs (Imanaga) -132 at Seattle (E. Hancock)

[Dan Druff]

2 baseball games starting very shortly

Arizona -114 (Henry) vs Cubs (Hendricks)

Oakland +125 (Sears) vs St. Louis (Lynn)

[Dan Druff]

Boston +105 (Bello) at Pittsburgh (Priester)

Quinn Priester appeared in 10 games last year, starting 8, and pitched to a 7.74 ERA.

He was a semi-high-level prospect, and disappointed the Pirates last year.

He's back, after a mediocre start in the minors (3.95 ERA, 20/5 K-BB ratio).

It's possible that Priester rights this ship in 2024, but I don't think it's going to happen on the road in Boston.

[Dan Druff]

Another one starting soon:

Washington (Gore) +136 vs Houston (Verlander)

Justin Verlander is 41, and coming off an injury. In a 77-pitch rehab start, he gave up 5 ER and 7 hits. He will be limited to 85 pitches at most. This has disaster written all over it, even against a bad Washington team.

On the flip side, Mackenzie Gore, once a bust of a high-level prospect, seems to be "finding it" in 2024, both with increased velocity and much better numbers. He's 25, so perhaps he is just hitting his stride a bit late. In any case, he's the far better pitcher in this matchup, at least for now.

[Dan Druff]

Tampa (Littel) -106 vs Detroit (Skubal)

[Dan Druff]

Yankees (Cortes) vs Oakland (Wood) - Under 7.5 -110

[Dan Druff]

Won yesterday.

Today:

Washington (T. Williams) +111 at Miami (A. Maldanado)