Dan Druff's 2024 MLB picks

[Dan Druff]

Also: Kansas City (Ragans) +114 at Toronto (Berrios)

[Dan Druff]

Washington (Gore) at Texas (J. Gray) - Under 8 -118

[Dan Druff]

Dodgers (Yamamoto) at Arizona (J. Montgomery) - Under 26.5 R+H+E -120

[Dan Druff]

Just barely squeaked by on that one above, having to sweat out the final pitch. Ended up 25 R+H+E, so victory. Yamamoto came through, Montgomery did not, but it all worked out.

Today:

Cleveland (L. Allen) at Houston (Arighetti) - OVER 5.5 +100 - FIRST 5 INNINGS (5 -130 ok)

The CLE/HOU game tonight has some weird elements. You have an unexpectedly bad Houston team which, despite their 10-20 record, still might get over it and break out any time. You have a Tribe team which is better than expected so far, with the reverse record (20-10).

Both pitchers have issues. Logan Allen (not to be confused with the one in Arizona) has allowed 6 HR in 31 innings, has given up 3+ runs in 5 of 6 starts, and threw only 48/91 pitches for strikes in his last outing. Through 30 starts dating back to last year, his career WHIP is about 1.4. Ouch.

Then Houston has Spencer Arrighetti, a rookie with an 11 ERA through 3 starts, who inexplicably kept his rotation position when Verlander came back. The only upside? He struck out 7 batters in 3 2/3 innings (!!) in his last outing, but also gave up 7 hits and 2 walks. He's actually fanned 15 in just over 10 innings of work thus far, yet has given up 18 hits and 7 walks. Think 2022-23 Hunter Greene, who was dominant with the strikeouts, but otherwise wasn't getting the job done. Greene seems to be finally coming around in 2024.

Anyway, I see 6+ runs in the first 5 innings.

[Dan Druff]

Atlanta (R Lopez) vs Boston (K Crawford) - Under 8.5 -105

[Dan Druff]

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That's a pretty bad lineup.

Mikolas pitched better the last 2 games, but he hasn't been good since 2022.

Mets +109 (Butto) at St. Louis (Mikolas)