Dan Druff's 2024 MLB picks

[Dan Druff]

Also: Kansas City (Ragans) +114 at Toronto (Berrios)

[Dan Druff]

Washington (Gore) at Texas (J. Gray) - Under 8 -118

[Dan Druff]

Dodgers (Yamamoto) at Arizona (J. Montgomery) - Under 26.5 R+H+E -120

[Dan Druff]

Just barely squeaked by on that one above, having to sweat out the final pitch. Ended up 25 R+H+E, so victory. Yamamoto came through, Montgomery did not, but it all worked out.

Today:

Cleveland (L. Allen) at Houston (Arighetti) - OVER 5.5 +100 - FIRST 5 INNINGS (5 -130 ok)

The CLE/HOU game tonight has some weird elements. You have an unexpectedly bad Houston team which, despite their 10-20 record, still might get over it and break out any time. You have a Tribe team which is better than expected so far, with the reverse record (20-10).

Both pitchers have issues. Logan Allen (not to be confused with the one in Arizona) has allowed 6 HR in 31 innings, has given up 3+ runs in 5 of 6 starts, and threw only 48/91 pitches for strikes in his last outing. Through 30 starts dating back to last year, his career WHIP is about 1.4. Ouch.

Then Houston has Spencer Arrighetti, a rookie with an 11 ERA through 3 starts, who inexplicably kept his rotation position when Verlander came back. The only upside? He struck out 7 batters in 3 2/3 innings (!!) in his last outing, but also gave up 7 hits and 2 walks. He's actually fanned 15 in just over 10 innings of work thus far, yet has given up 18 hits and 7 walks. Think 2022-23 Hunter Greene, who was dominant with the strikeouts, but otherwise wasn't getting the job done. Greene seems to be finally coming around in 2024.

Anyway, I see 6+ runs in the first 5 innings.

[Dan Druff]

Atlanta (R Lopez) vs Boston (K Crawford) - Under 8.5 -105

[Dan Druff]

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That's a pretty bad lineup.

Mikolas pitched better the last 2 games, but he hasn't been good since 2022.

Mets +109 (Butto) at St. Louis (Mikolas)

[Dan Druff]

Kansas City (Singer) +136 at Seattle (Kirby)

[Dan Druff]

Lost KC above.

Today:

Cristian Javier got injured in mid-April. He then came back on May 11, and.... it didn't go well. He got hammered for 7 runs, and had decreased velocity.

Today is his second try back. Is he magically healed 5 days later? Maybe, but I'll take the chance that he's not.

Joey Estes (not related to former pitcher Shawn Estes, who indeed is old enough to be his dad) is a high-ceiling prospect who was having a bad season in the minors, but somehow put forth 5 nice innings against the Mariners in his first start this year.

The truth is that neither of these guys are reliable, but I'll take the big dog line for Javier to get hammered again in the first 5.

Oakland (Estes) +170 at Houston (C. Javier) - FIRST 5 INNINGS