Acres case study indicates advantage players have edge playing video poker

[accountinquestion]

They just calculate it differently.

Yeah they sure do. They imply a casino could increase their VP revenue by as much as 45% lol. C'mon, it's snake oil and I think most operators can see that.

I'm not arguing either way. There might be a place that is run in a way where this has value. I didn't read it that closely or pay attention to the numbers but I am fairly certain I could readily come up with a reasonable comp structure and slot allotments where that could be true.

I wouldn't agree it is snake oil but it likely doesn't have value to many. It really is a way to cut off the penny pinching VP grinders like Dan Druff. If their comps are structured so that they lose money on perfect VP players who max comps and there are enough of those guys vs the ploppies then it has value. Most places won't be like that. I'm just sayin..

I'm more interested in the mechanics of how this software would work in the field TBH.

[Dan Druff]

Interesting discussion.

Accountingquestion raises a good point. It might be difficult or impossible to integrate this software into a lot of older systems/machines. That makes it a non-starter right there when you're talking about smaller or lower budget operations which can't afford to upgrade everything.

They're also definitely fudging numbers regarding the software's benefit to casinos, as has already been discussed in this thread.

But is it advantageous for casinos to have something like this? Yes, big time. But not so much to identify APs. Instead, it's good at identifying ploppies.

The real value for casinos in video poker analysis comes from cherry picking the highest value customers and welcoming them back. Secondarily, there's a utilization in identifying mid-value customers, and separating them from low-value customers. There is not much utilization in figuring out who is an AP and who is just a tight-ass, good-paytable, by-the-book player.

What they want are high or middle stakes players who make egregious strategy errors. And then they can simply decide to no-offer anyone who simply sticks to the best games on property and also plays well.

Harrah's Lake Tahoe did this for years, giving shit offers (or no offers) to those who stuck to their full pay VP machines and nothing else. Of course, Harrah's did NOT have the ability to see how well people played, so their method was crude.

I have long thought that casino marketing dollars are very much aimed in the wrong direction. Maybe one day they'll learn. I'm not going to post suggestions out here, because casino execs do sometimes read this place (shocking, I know), and I don't want to give them any free help.

[Don Perignom]

The real value for casinos in video poker analysis comes from cherry picking the highest value customers and welcoming them back.

It's complicated. If the goal is to reward the most pathetic losers, vp skill analysis is far down the list of potential improvements. I think the more important measure is theo of the specific game being played. Some current systems reward 99% vp the same as 88% slots if both games are on the same machine.

But if the system is too opaque, it causes player backlash. Venetian modified its club for this reason.

Another consideration is how individual players respond to incentives. Some bad players are loyal without any encouragement. This is the idea behind teaser offers to newly established players -- hook them initially and then dial down the rewards. But this is vulnerable to multi-accounters who discover the algorithms.

[accountinquestion]

The real value for casinos in video poker analysis comes from cherry picking the highest value customers and welcoming them back.

It's complicated. If the goal is to reward the most pathetic losers, vp skill analysis is far down the list of potential improvements. I think the more important measure is theo of the specific game being played. Some current systems reward 99% vp the same as 88% slots if both games are on the same machine.

But if the system is too opaque, it causes player backlash. Venetian modified its club for this reason.

Another consideration is how individual players respond to incentives. Some bad players are loyal without any encouragement. This is the idea behind teaser offers to newly established players -- hook them initially and then dial down the rewards. But this is vulnerable to multi-accounters who discover the algorithms.

All the comp grinders are mostly on VP if they can make it work. Because of that the casino can't spit out the comps to VP because the grinders take advantage of it. This will let the casinos reward the customer base they want to award. T

But VP isn't much of a thing at most places like people have said .. outside of slot vultures the low value players are going to be on VP. Most importantly you can start to award the bad players more. All at once they get 2x the previous freeplay - they might just say no! to the trailer-lotted VP slotted neighbor joint.

[jdog]

But again, why bother paying for an expensive system just to analyze VP play?? Because you already know how much you're making or losing on any given rated player over time. I guess maybe you could id an unprofitable VP player faster... if they play rated that is. So really the whole thing is targeted at identifying a very specific kind of AP, just seems to narrow to have much value.

There's way more profit in identifying slot ploppies who dump their whole bankroll every time they walk in.

I think the more important measure is theo of the specific game being played.

Another consideration is how individual players respond to incentives. Some bad players are loyal without any encouragement.

A couple good points, the second one being a bit trickier for an operator to work out.

[DGenBen]

The casinos that sweat details like this are already doing it.

The casinos that don’t care enough or are too lazy to sweat these types of players would not care enough or would be too lazy to buy the software.

[accountinquestion]

The casinos that sweat details like this are already doing it.

The casinos that don’t care enough or are too lazy to sweat these types of players would not care enough or would be too lazy to buy the software.

By casino you mean existing management and existing management is fleeting.

Just saying..

[accountinquestion]

But again, why bother paying for an expensive system just to analyze VP play?? Because you already know how much you're making or losing on any given rated player over time. I guess maybe you could id an unprofitable VP player faster... if they play rated that is. So really the whole thing is targeted at identifying a very specific kind of AP, just seems to narrow to have much value.

There's way more profit in identifying slot ploppies who dump their whole bankroll every time they walk in.

I think the more important measure is theo of the specific game being played.

Another consideration is how individual players respond to incentives. Some bad players are loyal without any encouragement.

A couple good points, the second one being a bit trickier for an operator to work out.

The software shows good and bad. You can shift resources from low to high value customers. This solves both sides at once. Comp abuse but also under-comped.

[DGenBen]

The casinos that sweat details like this are already doing it.

The casinos that don’t care enough or are too lazy to sweat these types of players would not care enough or would be too lazy to buy the software.

By casino you mean existing management and existing management is fleeting.

Just saying..

True but casinos tend to keep similar policies & procedures throughout management changes.

They don’t typically do 180s every time they get a new manager(s)

New managers that want to change things can’t do it overnight.

It requires retraining employees, changing processes & procedures, getting buy ins from other departments the changes affect, etc, etc.

[Rob.Singer]

Boring discussion. The point of the study was made, understood, and accurately dissected within the first 8 or so posts.

The clear and overriding fact is, video poker players "grinding it out" for theoretical/real profits is mostly a thing of the past. Pay tables, comps, and slot club benefits have all become victims of casino belt tightening for normal players for a long time now.

A wing and a prayer are a vp player's allies these days. Use them wisely.

[Garnabby]

Yeah, Rob. Boring stuff. What we really need are some more pictures of you in the Newell at the dealership. Ha.

So funny that you couldn't put out enough of those, and with the as phony bill-of-sale, but, you had no pictures from before yours, supposedly, went into the shop for repairs, and, then, was sold to someone in Israel. You never though to take any pictures of it, until you brought it up here?


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[DGenBen]

Software company meeting with casino:

Casino: So we hear you have something new and exciting for us? We are always trying to keep up with the latest trends, like cashless gaming, virtual reality, artificial intelligence, whatchya got for us?

Software Co rep: Well you know those 10 Game Kings from the 1990s you keep in the back? We have software that analyzes exactly how well both of your regular VP players play their hands on those.

[Rob.Singer]

Yeah, Rob. Boring stuff. What we really need are some more pictures of you in the Newell at the dealership. Ha.

So funny that you couldn't put out enough of those, and with the as phony bill-of-sale, but, you had no pictures from before yours, supposedly, went into the shop for repairs, and, then, was sold to someone in Israel. You never though to take any pictures of it, until you brought it up here.

Now I've got one of the little people so flustered he steps out of character long enuf to post something actually readable--although typically full of wrong guesses and errors.

I'll mess up that pudding in your head some more. It wasn't a "dealership"; it's a consignment center. And I used it because of location. Hardly worth a 110 mile RT drive thru the city for pics for the losers here. That wasn't the "bill of sale". It was the standard short form RV dealers prepare for out-of-state residents to complete registration & sales tax requirements at the dmv in their home state. Not sold to "someone in Israel"; he made a soft commitment but never came through. A couple from Prescott bought it. Pictures? Someone like you might sleep with pics of your Honda Civic. But around here, an RV is about as special as my extra large Trojans are on a 114 degree day in an unrefrigerated church.

You didn't do very well now, did you.

Maybe this'll get you people off your boring fat asses, while I look down on the result..... I know AQ won't be able to resist )

[jdog]

Software Co rep: Well you know those 10 Game Kings from the 1990s you keep in the back? We have software that analyzes exactly how well both of your regular VP players play their hands on those.

My point exactly.

[DGenBen]

And breaking news……….

They just rolled out new software to analyze table game players on Faro.

[Dan Druff]

Fontainebleu and other casinos can already see which variant you're playing on multigame machines, and calculate theo accordingly. But they can't see skill yet, unless they're running this software or something similar.

I agree that identifying slot ploppies is the most lucrative. There are ways to do this which would spit out very accurate numbers regarding who is a complete plop and who is likely an AP. I'm not going to post my ideas here, for obvious reasons. But I can't imagine it would be too difficult to figure out.

But if they're going to comp VP players more than just a token amount, it really would help to have software analyzing who is good and who is bad.

Of course, the same might be able to be accomplished by providing a few high-return machines as honeypots, and making the rest shit. When you see a new player come in and play a high return machine, then disappear, you don't send them any offers. When you see a new player come in and play the shit paytables, you comp them normally. That's what Harrah's/Harvey's did for many years, and it was effective. Sure, people got Diamond/Seven Stars out of it fairly cheaply, but that isn't the company's biggest concern.