Poker tells: Bluffing

[Alan Mendelson]

Is there a particular "tell" that you see in poker players who bluff? I'm not sure if I would call this a "tell" but I find that those who are bluffing bet or raise "too much" to induce fear in their opponents. But when I see a bet that it "too big" I get the impression that the raiser has "missed" and is hoping to scare away opponents.

I find that when a player has a solid, winning hand, they will make smaller bets to induce calling or even re-raising.

[redietz]

People do tend to adjust down a notch when they're loaded and up a notch when they're not. For example, if somebody usually raises 2/3 of the pot, the tendency seems to be to use a 1/2 pot raise if loaded and a full pot if bluffing, so my experience matches yours on this.

[Vegas_lover]

Normally players throwing their chips at the table towards the dealer as if they mean nothing is a tell for me they are bluffing. Most of the time they already consider these chips to be lost and that's why they slide them towards the dealer in such a nonchalant way. A player that makes a bet and places a neat stack of chips, straight ahead as close to his own stack as possible, that's a red flag for me. Those players have a good hand most of the times. They place the chips so close to their own stack because they don't expect to loose them....

[Alan Mendelson]

Normally players throwing their chips at the table towards the dealer as if they mean nothing is a tell for me they are bluffing. Most of the time they already consider these chips to be lost and that's why they slide them towards the dealer in such a nonchalant way. A player that makes a bet and places a neat stack of chips, straight ahead as close to his own stack as possible, that's a red flag for me. Those players have a good hand most of the times. They place the chips so close to their own stack because they don't expect to loose them....

I played last night at Hollywood Park and I was watching for this "tell" Vegas Lover, and it happened a lot. Players who carefully place their chips before them or slowly moved their stacks "just over the line" did indeed have very strong hands. They didn't always win because there are suckouts, but they did indeed have very strong hands.

Conversely, when a player was not careful with their chips I made the assumption that they were bluffing and if I had some kind of a "hand" I used that information to outbet them and either make them fold or make them try to reraise to continue their bluff. As result, I finished nicely last night cashing out with a profit of a bit more than $800 at a $200 buy in table.

I would have cashed out more, but I didn't want to risk my stack on the last hand before I became the big blind. Here's what happened:

I have Ace of diamonds and Ten of diamonds -- not a great hand but a strong hand. It cost me $10 to call which I did. The flop came Jack-clubs, 6-spades, 10-clubss. Three players made bets and I folded because I only had middle pair and no clubs. It was really an easy fold for me. What I didn't know was that the turn was a 10-hearts, and an ace came on the river. That would have given me a full house and the nuts. The winner of the pot with JQ took in about $150 on that pot. Had I not been so prudent, it could've been mine. Oh well. You can't play every hand and you can't see every river.

[Vegas_lover]

I played last night at Hollywood Park and I was watching for this "tell" Vegas Lover, and it happened a lot. Players who carefully place their chips before them or slowly moved their stacks "just over the line" did indeed have very strong hands. They didn't always win because there are suckouts, but they did indeed have very strong hands.

Conversely, when a player was not careful with their chips I made the assumption that they were bluffing and if I had some kind of a "hand" I used that information to outbet them and either make them fold or make them try to reraise to continue their bluff. As result, I finished nicely last night cashing out with a profit of a bit more than $800 at a $200 buy in table.

I would have cashed out more, but I didn't want to risk my stack on the last hand before I became the big blind. Here's what happened:

I have Ace of diamonds and Ten of diamonds -- not a great hand but a strong hand. It cost me $10 to call which I did. The flop came Jack-clubs, 6-spades, 10-clubss. Three players made bets and I folded because I only had middle pair and no clubs. It was really an easy fold for me. What I didn't know was that the turn was a 10-hearts, and an ace came on the river. That would have given me a full house and the nuts. The winner of the pot with JQ took in about $150 on that pot. Had I not been so prudent, it could've been mine. Oh well. You can't play every hand and you can't see every river.

Alan, great to hear that once again, this is a tell that gives you solid info. It's a phycological thing and it always works for me. About the hand you folded. Looking at the flop, you made the best decision if and I mean if some strong bets were made on the flop. On the other hand, the Ace is a pretty good "kicker". Well, you can't win them all. $800 is a nice profit, good job!

[Alan Mendelson]

Usually, when I leave with a profit of $200 I am very happy. Even a $100 profit makes me feel good-- because if I made just a hundred dollars a day playing poker it would be a $25,000 a year "side job."

The $800 win in one day would give me a vacation week if I were a low limit pro. LOL

[Vegas_lover]

Usually, when I leave with a profit of $200 I am very happy. Even a $100 profit makes me feel good-- because if I made just a hundred dollars a day playing poker it would be a $25,000 a year "side job."

The $800 win in one day would give me a vacation week if I were a low limit pro. LOL

A profit is a profit and it doesn't matter how you look at it. Even if your profit was $10000 at one point during your session. As long as you cash out with more money than you came with, it's a profit. That's the simplicity of math

A win of $800 is more money than we pay for our 12 nights in a Las Vegas suite for our next stay. But I have to be honoust here, we have a number of nights comped.

[Alan Mendelson]

A profit is a profit and it doesn't matter how you look at it. Even if your profit was $10000 at one point during your session. As long as you cash out with more money than you came with, it's a profit. That's the simplicity of math

I'm glad you wrote that and I agree with what you said. Unfortunately in another thread I was criticized for continuing to play after reaching a certain profit level and not cashing out. Even last night I did not cash out at the absolute peak. At the absolute peak I had $846 of profit. I cashed out with an $806 profit, and tipped the chip runner $1 for the cash. That other $40 went to playing a couple of hands where I thought I had strong cards. I'm not sweating that I lost that $40 because I'm looking at the profit for the next buy-ins.

[Vegas_lover]

I'm glad you wrote that and I agree with what you said. Unfortunately in another thread I was criticized for continuing to play after reaching a certain profit level and not cashing out.

Those are silly arguments! I'll tell you why, you never know when you reach your session peak. If you have $10.000 in profits, you might consider to quit because that's enough, you had fun, you're tired and don't feel to play any longer. You could also run up that $10.000 to $20.000, you just don't know. You probably never expected to reach that $10.000 profit in one session anyhow.

It's also very well possible you loose a large portion of the $10.000 profit trying to win more. If in the end you cash out with a $2000 profit, you still have a 2 grand profit. Doesn't matter in which way you twist it. The only moment you can decide if you made the right decision is when you walk out the door. If you walk out with more than $10.000 profit, people will applaud you for it, if you walk out with less some people will call you dumber as daylight and an addicted degenerate. In the end there's only one thing that matters, did you win or loose money...

[Rob.Singer]

I'll chime in briefly here since we're stopped for the day and I'm the one who criticized Alan for his actions.

It was never about trying to grab onto a moving profit amount at its apex, then watching 80% of it disappear in the process. Vegas_lover of course is right about how one would never know the point at which a gambler is at his highest win, but the part about how it's possible to win even more after a certain point is unintentionally misrepresented. Yes, it IS possible, but in video poker that overwhelmingly does not happen when you compare how much easier it is to give some or all of it back without a plan or structure.

What this wholly was about is Alan explaining for months how he was trying his best to include discipline into his play, and even coming on and asking our help in the best way to approach his three summer chunks of $2500 each in freeplay at Caesars. He listened, made up his mind, and told us what he was going to do, period. A pre-determined plan was set what I believed was in stone. He would go in, play it thru once, cash out with whatever he was lucky enough to win, and quit. And that was an EXCELLENT plan, because that is how I play 99% of my freeplay. Why else is it an excellent plan? Because it is EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE AS THE CASINO WANTS AND EXPECTS YOU TO DO....especially a Seven Stars customer.

But, and I've truthfully said this multiple times to the chagrin of Alan and others - perhaps with similar tendencies - the craving for MORE casino action, aka an addiction to gambling, promptly took over once he realized that the $2500 in freeplay had run its once-thru course and the action was deemed over, and if he is anything like I used to be in my problem AP days, a cold but momentary sweat began forming. (I say "momentary because as soon as he talked himself out of doing what he said, and into being able to continue gambling, all was again well). The only problem with that is, all would have been well, PLUS $8000, had he just got up and walked outside for a moment to think clear-headed.

That is all this was about, how important it is to discipline when a player does what he says he is going to do. Changing on the fly because of a pocket full of cash, not only defeats that and forces the subject to create all kinds of feel-good rationale about leaving with a "revised" goal of $2000 instead of the $10000 that would have and should have seen the light of day--it is doing, again, exactly what the casino is set up for, wants you, and expects you to do.

This was a classic example of what I've been training people on for years, and because it is so strong an argument for my position, I am adopting it as my baseline for future students to learn by.

[Vegas_lover]

I'll chime in briefly here since we're stopped for the day and I'm the one who criticized Alan for his actions.

It was never about trying to grab onto a moving profit amount at its apex, then watching 80% of it disappear in the process. Vegas_lover of course is right about how one would never know the point at which a gambler is at his highest win, but the part about how it's possible to win even more after a certain point is unintentionally misrepresented. Yes, it IS possible, but in video poker that overwhelmingly does not happen when you compare how much easier it is to give some or all of it back without a plan or structure.

What this wholly was about is Alan explaining for months how he was trying his best to include discipline into his play, and even coming on and asking our help in the best way to approach his three summer chunks of $2500 each in freeplay at Caesars. He listened, made up his mind, and told us what he was going to do, period. A pre-determined plan was set what I believed was in stone. He would go in, play it thru once, cash out with whatever he was lucky enough to win, and quit. And that was an EXCELLENT plan, because that is how I play 99% of my freeplay. Why else is it an excellent plan? Because it is EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE AS THE CASINO WANTS AND EXPECTS YOU TO DO....especially a Seven Stars customer.

But, and I've truthfully said this multiple times to the chagrin of Alan and others - perhaps with similar tendencies - the craving for MORE casino action, aka an addiction to gambling, promptly took over once he realized that the $2500 in freeplay had run its once-thru course and the action was deemed over, and if he is anything like I used to be in my problem AP days, a cold but momentary sweat began forming. (I say "momentary because as soon as he talked himself out of doing what he said, and into being able to continue gambling, all was again well). The only problem with that is, all would have been well, PLUS $8000, had he just got up and walked outside for a moment to think clear-headed.

That is all this was about, how important it is to discipline when a player does what he says he is going to do. Changing on the fly because of a pocket full of cash, not only defeats that and forces the subject to create all kinds of feel-good rationale about leaving with a "revised" goal of $2000 instead of the $10000 that would have and should have seen the light of day--it is doing, again, exactly what the casino is set up for, wants you, and expects you to do.

This was a classic example of what I've been training people on for years, and because it is so strong an argument for my position, I am adopting it as my baseline for future students to learn by.

Rob, your problem is that in your world your approach is the only right one. Everyone that disagrees with you is fair game. That's why you're the person everybody loves to hate. This reply, again, shows just how much you need to be right. In this world it is alright to disagree and move on....My simple point is, if Alan decided to continue to play and doubled that $10.000 (and walked out of the casino at that point) you wouldn't have critizised him in the way you did now....Think about it.

[Rob.Singer]

You're wrong Vegas_lover. I have always criticized those who don't follow thru on doing what they said they would do--win or lose. My strategy was solidly based in self-discipline, I've taught that concept to hundreds of players, and results have never had anything to do with any of it. What IS important, because this is gambling of course, is the person understand that any win is a blessing, and how it is more difficult winning even more and stopping, than losing what you have.

They don't "love to hate" me; they "love to hate to love" me.

[Vegas_lover]

You're wrong Vegas_lover. I have always criticized those who don't follow thru on doing what they said they would do--win or lose. My strategy was solidly based in self-discipline, I've taught that concept to hundreds of players, and results have never had anything to do with any of it. What IS important, because this is gambling of course, is the person understand that any win is a blessing, and how it is more difficult winning even more and stopping, than losing what you have.

They don't "love to hate" me; they "love to hate to love" me.

I rest my case. You're right, I'm wrong.