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Thread: Un-Professional Sports Betting

  1. #41
    I'm already in with a starter position.

    Arlington +180 Circa
    *and*
    San Antonio -180 Caesars

    Just for the reward points.

  2. #42
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    So I have Finau and Justin Thomas at 60-something to 1; Hovland and Cam Smith at 50-something to 1. Finau is always feast or famine. Technically, it's a "home game" for JT, but that won't be worth much. Lunch money on them.

    Regarding the UFL. I have run into offshores making week-to-week changes in when and whether they allow buying of half points. NorthBet has stayed steady, but also posts lines later than others. Other places have vacillated on the half point buying allowances and dates available. Some won't allow buying of half points.

    Also, there were more simultaneous differences early in the season. Now there's more conservatism, although you can still see numbers moving in slo-mo like an odometer. Northbet has capped betting at $250 at a time, which is real low for them. Suggests Northbet has gone a little paranoid -- maybe a management change? Anyway, that's it. You can still fire most places.

    A little brag time. I tried to fire on Birmingham to win the thing early in the season. Tried to get $500, which seemed reasonable, down a couple of places, but the conservatism was ridiculous. Some places limited me to $200. Unbelievable. Anyway, it was the right thing -- Birmingham was +400 and +275 at the times I took them. Barely worth the effort for the money I got down, but all you can do is what's allowed. I don't even like Martinez as starter, but they know what they're doing. Probably have the best coach for this league. Here's a tidbit. I went to the Hard Rock in North Carolina and tried to bet UFL straight and futures. They were not available at all. I found that very odd. Just post odds and take stupidly low limits, like some offshores.

    I am not qualified to give opinions on the terminology of the golf betting. I always say to pin them down yourself. A partner/friend of mine, who was a high-ranking amateur tennis player in his age bracket, ran into some issues betting tennis and sorting through the different definitions of "retiring" from a match (aka quitting). He had some arbitrage shots that went south because, as in boxing's "no decision" definitions, not everyone is using the same rules and regs and you can get caught flat-footed. I wouldn't deign to offer advice or claim to know the definitions.

    Well, for those who ignored the sage wisdom of the author of the "professional sports betting thread" and came instead to this thread for tips (as opposed to gyps), Post 34 featured a helpful tidbit.

    If you have the Stallions to win the UFL, as I do, you might want to consider your options for hedging next week. First off, understand that the title game is being played at the home of the Battlehawks , who lead the league (by far) in attendance, racking up 30-some thousand every week without the padding. So you want San Antonio to beat St. Louis tonight. One hedge to consider would be to open a teaser with St. Louis, knowing a St. Louis win is not what you want, and creating an open teaser where you could theoretically have San Antonio win but not cover the +3 or +4 you'd have open with the Battlehawks. If San Antonio blows them out, you get the more favorable line by far versus Birmingham/St. Louis, and you could hedge that as you choose next week. I'd consider this for 10 to 20% of the future win at stake.

    The other part of my post that was spot on was me not loving Adrien Martinez as Birmingham QB. The man is likely going to be named league MVP, but he was pulled in the third quarter of the semi game because (1) he ain't that good and (2) he was sucking. So Corral was inserted and saved the day in a comfortable fashion. Give Skip Holtz credit. Not many coaches would yank a league MVP in a semi-final playoff game, but Holz knows what he's looking at as games unfold.

    I didn't really like Martinez as the starting QB, he winds up league MVP, and he gets yanked when the chips are down. Sometimes I halfway know whereof I speak.

    If anybody took my rare but accurate advice, send me a Starbucks gift card for a sawbuck. Those $6.51 medium coffees at the Golden Nugget Starbucks have gotten on my last nerve.

  3. #43
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    If anybody took my rare but accurate advice, send me a Starbucks gift card for a sawbuck.
    No, I bet one other UFL game on the 19th for a small arb, but nothing since then.

    Lots of French Open tennis arbs in the early stages, but later they dried up.

    Heavy college baseball lately.

    This morning, I'm waiting for NASCAR matchups to post. Yesterday I bet a Belmont horse matchup, and the (offshore) ticket only listed my horse but not the opponent. Live chat said it's supposed to be like that.

  4. #44
    The thing that most brings the limits of one's perceptions into focus with the UFL is that arguably the most dominant, flashy QB, the Birmingham starter Martinez, has no actual shot with an NFL team outside of third-and-short or goal line "Wildcat" QB plays. While several others, the St. Louis QB, the Birmingham backup, the Arlington starter, could find legitimate backup roles on NFL teams. The Arlington starter should be a QBs coach somewhere, as he does an amazing job considering he has no arm. Usually you can't get away with not much of an arm, but his decision-making is startlingly fast and almost always correct. His theory of what to do on a play is pristine. He can't always get it done, but he knows the theory.

  5. #45
    I just found the profit/loss button on my DK accounts so Iíve never thought of tax filings. I was shocked to find out after 3 years of betting small stakes pretty much every day Iím a winner on both my accounts on DK.

  6. #46
    Originally Posted by Jaysunjm View Post
    I was shocked to find out after 3 years of betting small stakes pretty much every day Iím a winner on both my accounts on DK.
    Well done. Are you playing the promotions significantly, or is that just routine, unboosted betting?

  7. #47
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    Originally Posted by Jaysunjm View Post
    I was shocked to find out after 3 years of betting small stakes pretty much every day Iím a winner on both my accounts on DK.
    Well done. Are you playing the promotions significantly, or is that just routine, unboosted betting?

    I think the BIG question is will the Celtics have an actual sweep tonight or a Gentleman's sweep, where they sort of allow the Mavs to win game 4 before finishing them in Boston?
    Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

  8. #48
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I think the BIG question is will the Celtics have an actual sweep tonight or a Gentleman's sweep, where they sort of allow the Mavs to win game 4 before finishing them in Boston?
    Lately I've had more WNBA than NBA bets, but I wonder if your hypothesis may already be factored into the odds. Mavericks are only about a 1-point dawg. Excuse me, dog.

  9. #49
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I think the BIG question is
    what new whopper UNKewlJ will come up with next. He's obviously not betting a nickel anywhere (doesn't have two nickels to rub together) just mouthing nonsense
    Originally Posted by Bosox
    like a fucken sick talking parrot.
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Next time you want to tell a whopper, talk to me and lets walk through it. I'll only charge you $200.
    I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  10. #50
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I think the BIG question is will the Celtics have an actual sweep tonight or a Gentleman's sweep, where they sort of allow the Mavs to win game 4 before finishing them in Boston?
    Lately I've had more WNBA than NBA bets, but I wonder if your hypothesis may already be factored into the odds. Mavericks are only about a 1-point dawg. Excuse me, dog.
    Last nights game certainly looked like the classic, team rolling over, for a game gentleman's sweep type thing. That is not to say the Celtics or any other team really rolled over. They don't. They are just uninspired. If form hold, the Celts will wrap it up Monday in Boston.

    I was torn over whether the Celts would be of that uninspired mindset or not. Part of me thought they might be playing for the sweep. So I didn't bet the game.

    I am currently sitting on a near dead series bet with the Mavs. So I have that to look forward to should they catch fire. THAT bet was actually about the first two games. I was looking for the Mavs to steal a game in Boston (as occurred both previous rounds) and then I could have hedged with Celtics guaranteeing a decent profit. Did work out. Sometimes you are the bug, sometimes the windshield.
    Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

  11. #51
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    That is not to say the Celtics or any other team really rolled over. They don't. They are just uninspired.
    You had the right idea. Judging by the score, they weren't even spired.

  12. #52
    Boy, I am really disappointed. I expected mickey crimm to sing my praises for having Birmingham at +400 and +280 to win the UFL. I guess he must be at church today.

    That's what I love about the Witteles version of VCT. Lots of objective reporting from the anonymous. I really do miss Alan Mendelson.

    Have a good one, gentlemen.

  13. #53
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Boy, I am really disappointed. I expected mickey crimm to sing my praises for having Birmingham at +400 and +280 to win the UFL. I guess he must be at church today.

    That's what I love about the Witteles version of VCT. Lots of objective reporting from the anonymous. I really do miss Alan Mendelson.

    Have a good one, gentlemen.
    I didn't watch the game. I have lost interest in the UFL. I will get to that in a minute. But red, please post/link where you predicted this (because I don't see it in about 30 seconds of looking (not saying you didn't), and I will be more than delighted to offer my congratulations to you.

    There are people that claim you can make money betting Nascar and Golf and tennis and UFC. Those things don't interest me, so I don't bet on them. I guess if I was trying to be a professional sports bettor I would try to find an advantage everywhere, whether it interested me or not. But that is not what I am doing. I like my sports and have done some losing sports betting for years as my recreational vice. Last year I decided to make the "jump" and get into the bonus whoring game, which would allow me to make money, while betting and watching the sports I like, as long as I am able to keep getting decent bonus offers.

    I do love football. It is just a head of college basketball as my favorite sports and teams. So after the superbowl, I tried to get into this new UFL and bet 5 or 6 weeks. But then I stopped. I just don't like that brand of football. It is really a level below 2 steps below the college majors. A couple of the teams have good fan bases, but many games are played in mostly empty, even smaller stadiums. It just feels like a made for TV sports. So I lost interest.

    That is just me, but again, if you link to where you predicted the outcome I will offer my heaty congrats. hell...don't even bother. I just do it now. If you picked that outcome ahead of time, congrats to you Red.
    Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

  14. #54
    I believe Redietz' strategy is to conceal his need for praise while attempting to satisfy it by pretending that he is expressing his disdain for someone when his real purpose is to brag about something.

    Thus all of the theatrical "I'm astonished, absolutely floored, that you don't know this thing I know!", and his affectation of contempt for a forum that he has repeatedly pledged to quit and yet cannot help himself from returning to as soon as he thinks he has something worth bragging about.

  15. #55
    Does Red do some bragging? Sure he does so what? This is supposed to be a gambling forum where people can share some if their experiences.

    It is funny that when it is someone you have decided you don't like, you call it bragging as if it is unacceptable. But when Mickeycrimm, axelwolf, Dan Stuff or even James Grosjean and Munchkin (on other forums) share experiences, no one calls it bragging.

    I appreciate hearing real gambling experiences from everyone. Professional players down to recreational. Do some only share the good or winning? Absolutely. Does Red tell us if contests he does well but no mention the 3122 place finish in another? Of course.

    For the record I try to share my good experiences, the winning as well as bad, losing and backoffs/heat. If others only want to tell us about the winning....so what? Aren't we all smart enough to figure out that they lose too?
    Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

  16. #56

  17. #57
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Boy, I am really disappointed. I expected mickey crimm to sing my praises for having Birmingham at +400 and +280 to win the UFL. I guess he must be at church today.

    That's what I love about the Witteles version of VCT. Lots of objective reporting from the anonymous. I really do miss Alan Mendelson.

    Have a good one, gentlemen.
    I'm not a football handicapper or a sports bettor, nor am I the "author" of the Professional Sports Betting thread. I created that thread to highlight and follow professional sports bettors as a human interest more than anything else. I've always been fascinated by gambling strategy in all the various forms. But I don't participate in all of them. I've never given any advice on sports betting in that thread.

    Your jealousy of those professionals that were highlighted pretty much bombed you out of the thread. Such a shame. You could have been a contributor like them but you chose to ridicule them and VCT instead. Small minded.

    So I don't follow your speculations....other than to say I can hear the same shit you spout on ESPN. Your real talent lies in the false premises you create to support your false narratives about others.

    However, if you accept my 2 point challenge I will then bet sports, at least for the NFL season. Even a novice knows I will have the edge against you. You know it too.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 06-16-2024 at 03:19 PM.
    Challenge to redietz. We bet every NFL regular season game. You make the picks. If you lay the fav I get 2 extra points. If you take the dog I get a 2 point discount. Easy pickings for you.

  18. #58
    Polish your lucky silver dollar. Flip it a few times for practice.
    You now have the edge against redietz.

  19. #59
    Originally Posted by cyberbabble View Post
    Polish your lucky silver dollar. Flip it a few times for practice.
    You now have the edge against redietz.
    Alas, there have been many third-party (as in not me/not client) monitors of what I have done. There was, drum roll please:

    1) "Tipsters or Gypsters?" published annually, with monthly handicapper updates, for 20 of my years.
    2) The Buffalo Cable Handicap (TV show; I think I finished 6th that year).
    3) The Absolute Truth (a monitoring publication)
    4) The Sports Monitor (after "Tipsters or Gypsters?" ceased publishing).
    5) Handicappers' Report Card (managed a 66-34 ATS record among 30-some handicappers one year; did not finish first).
    6) The Wise Guys Contest (two football games a week, every week, for 30 years). Have either the best or second best overall record for that span of time.
    7) LineMasters Bowl Contest (private contest; Westgate soon-to-be Hall of Fame sports book manager Jay Kornegay was in it).
    8) Who's Who in Sports Gambling (Hall Publishing, 1984; I was invited because I was monitored by "Tipsters or Gypsters?" Born-again Rick Hall vetted me personally.
    9) Wise Guys record was published weekly in Playbook newsletter, which was on newsstands nationally for 30 years.
    10) Hired by Billy Walters, who tends to not hire coin flippers.

    Thanks for the opportunity, cyber. In the interests of expediency, I kept the list to a Dave Letterman-ish 10. The Shenendoah Evening Herald did a profile; so did the Pulitzer-Prize winner Pottsville Republican 15 years later. Op eds regarding gambling were published in the Centre Daily Times (Penn State) and quoted in other papers. Published in The Humanist ("Scientists, Gamblers, and Magicians"). Gave a paper ("The Gambling Personality: An Interactional Approach") at the National Conference on Gambling and Risk-Taking. Was invited, but declined, to write further for a start-up gambling academic journal. Was contacted by Allen and Yarnow, literary agents, about doing a book after my Humanist article was published.

    Now pardon me, I need to visit the bank so I don't run out of coins.
    Last edited by redietz; 06-18-2024 at 08:08 AM.

  20. #60
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by cyberbabble View Post
    Polish your lucky silver dollar. Flip it a few times for practice.
    You now have the edge against redietz.
    Alas, there have been many third-party (as in not me/not client) monitors of what I have done. There was, drum roll please:

    1) "Tipsters or Gypsters?" published annually, with monthly handicapper updates, for 20 of my years.
    2) The Buffalo Cable Handicap (TV show; I think I finished 6th that year).
    3) The Absolute Truth (a monitoring publication)
    4) The Sports Monitor (after "Tipsters or Gypsters?" ceased publishing).
    5) Handicappers' Report Card (managed a 66-34 ATS record among 30-some handicappers one year; did not finish first).
    6) The Wise Guys Contest (two football games a week, every week, for 30 years). Have either the best or second best overall record for that span of time.
    7) LineMasters Bowl Contest (private contest; Westgate soon-to-be Hall of Fame sports book manager Jay Kornegay was in it).
    8) Who's Who in Sports Gambling (Hall Publishing, 1984; I was invited because I was monitored by "Tipsters or Gypsters?" Born-again Rick Hall vetted me personally.
    9) Wise Guys record was published weekly in Playbook newsletter, which was on newsstands nationally for 30 years.
    10) Hired by Billy Walters, who tends to not hire coin flippers.

    Thanks for the opportunity, cyber. In the interests of expediency, I kept the list to a Dave Letterman-ish 10. The Shenendoah Evening Herald did a profile; so did the Pulitzer-Prize winner Pottsville Republican 15 years later. Op eds regarding gambling were published in the Centre Daily Times (Penn State) and quoted in other papers. Published in The Humanist ("Scientists, Gamblers, and Magicians"). Gave a paper ("The Gambling Personality: An Interactional Approach") at the National Conference on Gambling and Risk-Taking. Was invited, but declined, to write further for a start-up gambling academic journal. Was contacted by Allen and Yarnow, literary agents, about doing a book after my Humanist article was published.

    Now pardon me, I need to visit the bank so I don't run out of coins.
    you have many, many posts here and elsewhere indicating how great and famous you were as a sports handicapper

    but I googled with your name many different ways and nothing other than posts by you on forums like this or about you on forums like this ever came up

    that's not to say I disbelieve you - it just seems strange

    I would like to read the stories about you in The Shenandoah Evening Herald and the Pottsville Republican - that would be very interesting to me and perhaps to others

    can you please post a link_________?_____________thanks

    if these stories were before the internet I would guess you kept hard copies and could take a picture and least post some of the stories


    .
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 06-19-2024 at 06:13 AM.
    the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

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