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Thread: Video Poker Trucks Run Over Everybody

  1. #41
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Just because a strategy is available does not mean the game itself is a good play. You have to think about progressives and slot club benefits that could make a game like 8/5 playable. However, without these items the game is obviously a negative play. This is one of the skills it takes to play VP that Alan doesn't appear to understand.
    I appreciate the comment Arc, but the comment was directed to redietz. I think redietz needs to express his concerns to both Dancer and Grochowski and to any other video poker guru who offers instruction about holds and play for various negative expectation games. Since the games are negative, and redietz says "If you're playing negative games, you are trying to lose" these authors and gurus need to make major changes to their books, and software. Whether or not there are slot club benefits and cashback and points seems to be a non issue here, in redietz eyes.

    And Arc, I think you should also contact Dancer and Grochowski and the others to have them include your bell curve results. They've all seemed to miss that -- and the "bell curve" does not appear in the various articles and books that I have, nor was it mentioned when I attended Dancer's lecture. They should be educated.

    Thank you, both Arc and redietz, for bringing to light these important issues.

  2. #42
    Alan, wasn't Dancer and economist or accountant or some such profession. I would think he understands the bell curve. However, he may think it's above his typical student's abilities. I have no idea.

  3. #43
    Arc, to be honest, I think you need to write a book. Perhaps you should co-author it with redietz. As far as I know, only you two have ever mentioned a bell curve in video poker. You might win a Nobel Prize.

    edited to add: I just checked Google for info about "bell curve + video poker" and our discussions here come up as the #1 result. However, I couldn't find any research that shows there is such a thing as an actual "bell curve" of results.

    So, a question: are you assuming that there is a bell curve of results, or have you seen results of video poker play which when plotted show a bell curve?

    Definition of 'Bell Curve'
    The most common type of distribution for a variable. The term "bell curve" comes from the fact that the graph used to depict a normal distribution consists of a bell-shaped line.

    Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/...#ixzz21UHYfSqc


    Are we really talking about an actual "bell curve" here for video poker? Or perhaps if results were plotted out the "line" would resemble an "L" with a few players winning and most busting out?

    Like this:

    L_______________
    Last edited by Alan Mendelson; 07-23-2012 at 03:31 PM.

  4. #44
    Alan, I'm critical and judgmental of other vp players and what they do because I am a teacher of the subject, and I've learned from my mistakes. I know from experience that when people create whatever excuse they want so they don't have to do what they said they were going to do, they are basically untrustworthy to others and worse--they cannot trust themselves.

    I've heard of people who've lost more money than I have in my 401k in a day, and it means nothing to me. Similarly, no one else really cares what someone else won over whatever amount of time either. It's all meaningless except to the individual. But what IS meaningful is when someone publicly says they are going to do X as a result of input from experienced individuals, then changes his mind mid-stream just because he did not want the action to end. Next time don't ask. Why'd you do it this time....and why did you even bother specifying your decision if you know how you'd react with a sudden pockerful of cash?

  5. #45
    Alan, the bell curve takes on it's form after many samples of a randomly distributed population. The reason the bell curve applies to VP is because the results are random. Same applies to coin tosses or dice rolls.

    Look at a coin toss after one toss. If you plotted the curve for number of heads it would look like a "U" with a flat bottom. Around half of the results would align with 1 and the other half with 0. Not much of a bell. However, as more and more tosses occur the bell starts to form and after only 100 tosses you likely have a pretty well shaped bell with the peak at 50%. Same holds for dice but it might take 1000 rolls before the nice bell shape appears. Both of these are what is known as a normal distribution which eventually leads to a perfect bell.

    VP is not quite as quick. It might take hundreds of thousands of hands before the bell becomes nicely shaped. It also is not a perfect normal distribution at a low number of samples (hands) since the various results have differing probabilities. But, it's close enough to use for examples and to improve understanding of the forces at work.

    The key thing that ties VP to a bell curve is the random nature of the outcomes.

  6. #46
    Arc would your bell curve also apply to live poker tournaments?

  7. #47
    Rob I am not enrolled in your school. You are not my teacher. Abraham Lincoln freed the slaves and I have every right to change my mind and you have no right to pass judgment on anyone.

  8. #48
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Arc would your bell curve also apply to live poker tournaments?
    It applies to the cards you are dealt over time. However, the results are not based on randomness so it would not be a bell curve.

  9. #49
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    It applies to the cards you are dealt over time. However, the results are not based on randomness so it would not be a bell curve.
    That really wasn't the question I intended. My question is: would the bell curve apply to winners in a live poker tournament?

    Also, I think there may be a misunderstanding about the question of a bell curve applying to video poker. You wrote: "VP is not quite as quick. It might take hundreds of thousands of hands before the bell becomes nicely shaped." so I think we might be discussing two different things entirely.

    I am asking if the bell curve applies to the overall number of "winners" and "losers" at video poker -- not to any hands, combination of hands, winning hands. etc. In other words, would the bell curve apply to the universe of video poker players and their winnings over their lifetime of play? Or even for a year of play or a day of play?

    And if the bell curve does apply to the actual final hands (deal and draws) what would be the "hand" at the high point of the bell? The way I understand a bell curve is that on the horizontal axis are the payoffs (bust to the far left, royal flush at the far right) and the vertical axis is the number of hands at each result or payoff. Would a bell curve really be appropriate for video poker results, and if so, what is the hand or payout at the high point of the bell??

  10. #50
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    That really wasn't the question I intended. My question is: would the bell curve apply to winners in a live poker tournament?
    No

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Also, I think there may be a misunderstanding about the question of a bell curve applying to video poker. You wrote: "VP is not quite as quick. It might take hundreds of thousands of hands before the bell becomes nicely shaped." so I think we might be discussing two different things entirely.

    I am asking if the bell curve applies to the overall number of "winners" and "losers" at video poker -- not to any hands, combination of hands, winning hands. etc. In other words, would the bell curve apply to the universe of video poker players and their winnings over their lifetime of play? Or even for a year of play or a day of play?
    The bell curve is a graph of a probability distribution. So, if you define the graph as representing how the players did relative to their own expectation then all players could be shown on one graph. However, that doesn't tell you how they did, only whether they were lucky or unlucky.

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    And if the bell curve does apply to the actual final hands (deal and draws) what would be the "hand" at the high point of the bell? The way I understand a bell curve is that on the horizontal axis are the payoffs (bust to the far left, royal flush at the far right) and the vertical axis is the number of hands at each result or payoff. Would a bell curve really be appropriate for video poker results, and if so, what is the hand or payout at the high point of the bell??
    No, a bell curve is the summation of all the results for a set of players for all the hands played. A normal view would have the vertical axis as the number of players and the horizontal axis is the actual return. Note that I gave a variation of this above where the horizontal axis could be deviation from expectation.

    If every player played perfectly you'd expect the bell curve to be centered on the games ER. In reality it would be centered quite a bit below that given the skill of the average player.

  11. #51
    Thanks for responding, Arc.

    My first question about applying the bell curve to the winners of a live poker tournament was a trick question. In a poker tournament only the top 10% are paid any money, and 90% finish with zip. So there is no bell curve for the winners of a live poker tournament. Unless you have a bell that resembles a cigar pipe with a long stem and a funny looking bowl at the far right.

    Please explain this one for me: The bell curve is a graph of a probability distribution. What is the horizontal and what is the vertical axis of this bell curve you are talking about?

    For point three you wrote: a bell curve is the summation of all the results for a set of players for all the hands played. A normal view would have the vertical axis as the number of players and the horizontal axis is the actual return. Okay, but how do you know this? Was a survey conducted or did you just assume it would be this way because you consider video poker to have a random distribution like throwing a handful of pebbles at a target pinned to a tree? Do most finish in the middle ground when they play which is what a traditional bell curve would show? Or do most video poker players finish with nothing and only a few finish with a profit? All of the reports Ive seen say that only 5% of gamblers leave Vegas with a profit, and that doesnt seem to fit a traditional bell curve to me. Does it to you?

    When I studied economics back in the Jurassic era and we had to figure how many virgins needed to be sacrificed to keep the village safe from sabre tooth tigers, we did the research first and plotted the bell curve of safety for the village after we did the research. Here's what we found:

    vertical axis: number of virgins sacrificed to the sabre tooth tigers by keeping them tied to a tree
    horizontal axis: safety of other villagers

    We found there to be a true bell curve because we found that if we tied up no virgins in the trees the tigers would sometimes ransack the village when the tigers were hungry. but ironically when no virgins were tied up the tigers would not approach the village perhaps because the scent of a virgin tied up was missing. however when many virgins were tied up (the peak of the bell shape curve) we had a "middle ground" of attacks that were quite constant. From that we duduced that many virgins tied up offered too much of a scent for tigers.

    So that was our research and how we came to plot out our bell curve.

    Now, you said that your bell curve represents the summation of all the results for a set of players for all the hands played. A normal view would have the vertical axis as the number of players and the horizontal axis is the actual return.

    Honestly Arc, I can understand virgins and tiger attacks, but I haven't got a clue as to what the summation of all the results for a set of players for all the hands played. A normal view would have the vertical axis as the number of players and the horizontal axis is the actual return means.

    edited to add: If you ask this caveman, he can see your smoke, but can't feel your fire.
    Last edited by Alan Mendelson; 07-23-2012 at 10:04 PM.

  12. #52
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Okay, but how do you know this? Was a survey conducted or did you just assume it would be this way because you consider video poker to have a random distribution like throwing a handful of pebbles at a target pinned to a tree?
    If you want real numbers you'd need to survey the players. You could also run simulations if you know the exact nature of the random samples as we do in VP. You can also compute the numbers directly.

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Do most finish in the middle ground when they play which is what a traditional bell curve would show? Or do most video poker players finish with nothing and only a few finish with a profit? All of the reports Ive seen say that only 5% of gamblers leave Vegas with a profit, and that doesnt seem to fit a traditional bell curve to me. Does it to you?
    It is not a curve of profits, it is actual returns. That is credits won divided by credits bet. In most cases only the extreme right hand end of the curve would show a profit. For example, if we were talking about 8/5 BP and assumed average skill then what we would end up with be a bell curve that peaks about 2% below the ER or around 97%. Once again, you have to assume a fairly large number of hands (credits bet) before the bell curve would start to form.

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Now, you said that your bell curve represents the summation of all the results for a set of players for all the hands played. A normal view would have the vertical axis as the number of players and the horizontal axis is the actual return.

    Honestly Arc, I can understand virgins and tiger attacks, but I haven't got a clue as to what the summation of all the results for a set of players for all the hands played. A normal view would have the vertical axis as the number of players and the horizontal axis is the actual return means.

    edited to add: If you ask this caveman, he can see your smoke, but can't feel your fire.
    The summation of results is simply the credits won by a player, that is, summing the results of all the winning hands. Then, to make the results consistent across a set of players who may have played a different number of hands, you divide by the number of credits bet. Of course, this is nothing but the actual percentage return. So, with a maybe a 100,000 hands, way to the left you might see a few with 90% returns, the peak at around 97% and then way to the right a few at 104% returns. As the number of hands increases the bell tightens and more and more players near the 97% number.

  13. #53
    Thank you for posting this, Arc: If you want real numbers you'd need to survey the players. You could also run simulations if you know the exact nature of the random samples as we do in VP. You can also compute the numbers directly.

    I take this to mean you are just applying "theory" of random number bell curves to your beliefs of actual results among video poker players. Without an actual survey your report means zero. One of the things you should survey is how many casinogoers play till they bust out.

    The caveman was correct. He could see you were blowing smoke, but you have no fire. In other words, you made the whole thing up.

  14. #54
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Thank you for posting this, Arc: If you want real numbers you'd need to survey the players. You could also run simulations if you know the exact nature of the random samples as we do in VP. You can also compute the numbers directly.

    I take this to mean you are just applying "theory" of random number bell curves to your beliefs of actual results among video poker players. Without an actual survey your report means zero. One of the things you should survey is how many casinogoers play till they bust out.
    I'm applying mathematical principles, Alan. Please try and understand what that means. It is not some vague theory. It is well tested, absolute fact that random results will form a bell curve.

    It also has nothing to do with how often players go bust in a casino. That is a silly red herring. It is simply the results a set of players will achieve over time. It appears you are trying to deny mathematical reality. Is that your goal?

  15. #55
    I understand you are applying principles but your principles need some base facts first. But your principles may not apply to the example of casino play.

    Just as there is no bell curve for payoffs in a live poker tournament if it
    is true that 95 percent of gamblers leave the casino with a loss there can be no bell curve for casino players who are profitable.
    Last edited by Alan Mendelson; 07-24-2012 at 02:02 PM. Reason: typos fixed

  16. #56
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I understanding you are applying principles but your principles need some base facts first.
    Nut your principles may not apply to the example of casino play.
    Well, the only way for that to be true is for the machines to be non-random. If you believe the machines are random then the math is applicable. It's that simple.

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Just as there is no bell curve for payoffs in a live poker tournament if it
    is true that 95 percent of gamblers leave the casino with a loss there can be no bell curve for casino players who are profitable.
    I often wonder why I bother to respond to your comments. As I stated in my last comment "It also has nothing to do with how often players go bust in a casino. That is a silly red herring.". A bell curve can exist with absolutely no one making a profit. It has nothing to do with profits and losses. Your comment is so ridiculous I can only give you a failing grade on reading comprehension.

    As for live poker, the reason the bell curve does not apply is because the results are not based on random events. Trying to compare the two is nonsense.

  17. #57
    First forgive my typos. I'm using a Blackberry on the road. Second Arc stop your BSing. There is no research that supports your contention that video poker results match a bell curve. You're full of crap.

    Secondly video poker is not a random game either because players choose which cards to hold. That is the skill you claim to have isn't it Arc?
    Last edited by Alan Mendelson; 07-24-2012 at 01:49 PM.

  18. #58
    I'm not sure I know what Alan is talking about, so I can't even fathom a way to respond. If the machines are random, the results will form a bell curve. Maybe what Alan's getting at -- people play one way sober and another way drunk and display no consistent decision-making, so they appear to be all over the place, therefore their behavior doesn't appl? I'll leave Arci to respond to that one. I have a fine set of probability DVDs that I watch to refresh my mathness at least once a year. I am not a math guy. They are pretty straightforward. Alan, I'm getting you a set for Christmas.

    I'm off to LV to scout football futures and get a handle on the William Hill takeover of Leroy's, Lucky's and Cal Neva sports books. If anybody's interested, I'll report when I return next week.

  19. #59
    Let me make it simple: a bell curve is determined by plotting results on a graph. There is no research to plot this graph. That's point number one.

    Point number two is that no one has surveyed the results of players to determine if the personal results of any group of players would plot to show a bell curve.

    If anyone has such research show it.

    That's the simplest way to sum it up.

    Just "Google" "video poker + bell curve" and see for yourself.

    Now if you want to investigate whether or not video poker results fit a bell curve then be my guest. But what you will find is that video poker is not a random game. Cards might be chosen by the RNG randomly, but each player will make an independent decision about which cards to hold and which cards to discard and unless, redietz, you are drunk, your decision about which cards to play is not random.

    In a live poker tournament a bell curve for the pays to the players does not exist because 90% of the players are not paid, only ten percent of the players are in the money.

    With video poker there might be a bell curve distribution but there is no research showing it. The only "research" that I know of states that 95% of casino visitors lose money on their visits. Well, what kind of bell curve does that represent? Perhaps itstead of a "bell" we have "U" -- but that's a stretch.

    The point is, Arc is trying to apply a random pattern called a bell curve to a non random game of video poker. And he'd better not say that video poker is a "random game" because if it is "random game" than strategy makes no difference.

    So let's stop the double speak here.
    Last edited by Alan Mendelson; 07-24-2012 at 04:30 PM.

  20. #60
    Alan, no one has to "research" whether VP results form a bell curve. We know random events form a bell curve. We know VP is random. Please Alan, quit making ridiculous comments. Your like a person living centuries ago claiming the Earth is flat because no one has seen a picture of it.

    Now, it's true that to map anything on a graph you have to be looking at apples-apples relationships. I've tried to make this point above but I probably wasn't clear enough. You can't graph every players VP results and claim it forms a bell curve unless you have some way to normalize the results. However, you can describe what is probable for a set of people looking to play the same game in the future. The bell curve gives a view of one's probable future results. It can also be nice to look at past results and see where a person would fit among others who played the same way.

    For example, you can take Singer's claims of success and see where that puts him in a group of people who tried the same method of play. All you do it build the bell curve and see where he exists on the x-axis compared to the others. You will see this puts him in the top .03%.

    Math Alan, it's all just simple math. "So let's stop the double speak here."

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