Video Poker Trucks Run Over Everybody

[arcimede$]

No, because I am telling you that the results of video poker players (and that is the bell curve I am talking about) is not purely math based. The results of video poker players (make sure we are talking about the same thing) will vary with the decisions made by the players. Want an example? Here is it is: Rob Singer. Rob Singer wins on negative expectation games. He violates the math.

Assuming of course that he really has won. However, even the math accounts for that possibility. There is an .03% chance he really did win as much as he has claimed. So, no math violation whatsoever. Now, if you really believe that someone is that lucky for 10 straight years I have some prime Wyoming ocean front property available ...

I am not disagreeing with the math. I'm saying that the results of video poker players will differ from the math.

Now, if you can show me that that difference fits a bell curve I will accept it. But you can't tell me that non random video poker play fits a bell curve automatically.

No, the results do not differ from the math. The math is not tied to optimal play as you appear to think. The math applies to any strategy a player uses. It simply shifts the bell curve to the left.

All a bell curve does in VP is provide a range of possible outcomes and the associated probabilities of a method of play. There is not a single bell curve.

[Vegas_lover]

No, because I am telling you that the results of video poker players (and that is the bell curve I am talking about) is not purely math based. The results of video poker players (make sure we are talking about the same thing) will vary with the decisions made by the players. Want an example? Here is it is: Rob Singer. Rob Singer wins on negative expectation games. He violates the math.

I am not disagreeing with the math. I'm saying that the results of video poker players will differ from the math.

Now, if you can show me that that difference fits a bell curve I will accept it. But you can't tell me that non random video poker play fits a bell curve automatically.

This is why I think you don't get it. Singer's results can be plotted in the bell curve just as easily as the results of any other VP player. Nobody ever said people can't win on a negative expectation game BUT chances you end up a winner on a negative game get smaller and smaller through time. So basically you and Arci are saying the same thing but somehow you don't (want to) believe that even Singer's results can be plotted in a bell curve with the results of other vp-players. Singer is not the only player that wins on a negative expectation game. The more important question is how many times in how many sessions in which amount of time.....in others words.....long term

[Alan Mendelson]

This is why I think you don't get it. Singer's results can be plotted in the bell curve just as easily as the results of any other VP player.

I don't deny there is a bell curve, I just said show it to me. I've looked all over the internet for information about a bell curve for video poker results, and the only thing that comes up in Google is THIS FORUM. LOL.

[Count Room]

Okay, now you're saying that the bell curve would even accommodate the 95% of video poker players who lose. Gee do you really need a bell curve to express that 95% of video poker players go bust? "Going Bust" to me is a flat line. Whether you lose $10 on your trip or $10,000 on your trip it's still a zero return. So, which part of the bell curve for 95% of the video poker players is "zero"??

Is this the bell curve you are offering us? ______________________________/\___________________ Is that it? That's about "zero" for 95% of the players.

That's not a bell curve. That's a nipple.

[Alan Mendelson]

OMG. Arc wrote in another thread: "Alan, if a game is not random then the math does not apply. The math is based on random events. One either accepts the games are random or not." Now, Arc, based on what you just said, could you possibly consider the idea that there is NO bell curve for the results of video poker play? Or are you still going to insist that all video poker play is random?

[arcimede$]

I don't deny there isn't a bell curve, I just said show it to me. I've looked all over the internet for information about a bell curve for video poker results, and the only thing that comes up in Google is THIS FORUM. LOL.

Alan, do you track your results? Here's all you have to do. Compute coin-in/coin-out for every month you play. After a couple of years you will see a bell curve.

[arcimede$]

OMG. Arc wrote in another thread: "Alan, if a game is not random then the math does not apply. The math is based on random events. One either accepts the games are random or not." Now, Arc, based on what you just said, could you possibly consider the idea that there is NO bell curve for the results of video poker play? Or are you still going to insist that all video poker play is random?

The game is based on random cards being generated. As I've already told you, player choices only move the bell curve to the left.

[Alan Mendelson]

Let me see if I understand you vegas_lover: it is possible to win at a negative expectation game in the short term but you cannot win in the long term? And you reject the idea of accumulating wins in the short term that in the long term add up to a long term win?

[Alan Mendelson]

The game is based on random cards being generated. As I've already told you, player choices only move the bell curve to the left.

Let's put aside the question about bell curves. Instead let me ask you this: is video poker a random game or a game of skill?

[arcimede$]

Let's put aside the question about bell curves. Instead let me ask you this: is video poker a random game or a game of skill?

Yes, it is both. The skill allows one to move their personal bell curve of session results far to the right. Quite close to the optimal bell curve. However, the randomness means there will be a distribution of results over time within that bell curve.

[Alan Mendelson]

Yes, it is both. The skill allows one to move their personal bell curve of session results far to the right. Quite close to the optimal bell curve. However, the randomness means there will be a distribution of results over time within that bell curve.

Thanks Arc but let me clarify my question because this has nothing to do with bell curves. Different topic now. Do you consider video poker to be a random game of chance, or a game of skill?

[arcimede$]

VP is a game of skill based on random events (cards). The skill factor allows you to improve your expected results over time. However, the randomness of the game means there is a range of possible outcomes. Hence, it is also a game of chance.

Yes, it can be both. It's not pure skill and it's not pure chance. It's a combination of both.

Chance has a bigger impact on any single days play ... over time, the skill factor becomes dominant.

[Alan Mendelson]

This is very interesting, Arc. You say that on any single day's play chance has a bigger impact, but over time the skill factor becomes dominant. Question: isn't the long run just a compilation of single days?

[Count Room]

This is very interesting, Arc. You say that on any single day's play chance has a bigger impact, but over time the skill factor becomes dominant. Question: isn't the long run just a compilation of single days?

I don't usually step in when someone is asking someone else a question, but I will make an exception here. It is definitely true that the long run is just a compilation of single days. The key to a great long run is a string of great single days. The key to great single days are well-timed button pushes on the DEAL/DRAW at the right millisecond for big winning hands. If we could somehow improve our 'skill' here (on top of decently correct math plays), the key to the mint awaits us...

[arcimede$]

This is very interesting, Arc. You say that on any single day's play chance has a bigger impact, but over time the skill factor becomes dominant. Question: isn't the long run just a compilation of single days?

Count room has it right. The single days can swing either good or bad. Luck varies. Over time the luck factor (chance) evens out and what's left behind is the difference skill brings to the table.

Think about bowling. Some days you get every break and you hit a big score. Other days you're leaving unlucky splits and taps on many shots. Your average over time will eliminate these swings and give a good view of your true skill. Same is true in many other sports as well. And, of course is also true in video poker.

[Alan Mendelson]

I don't understand your analogy because bowling is only a game of skill. There is no RNG in bowling. Can you give me a better illustration of the point you're trying to make?

[Vegas_lover]

I don't understand your analogy because bowling is only a game of skill. There is no RNG in bowling. Can you give me a better illustration of the point you're trying to make?

Really Alan, do you really not understand? Bowling is nut purely a game of skill. I never bowl but can still be lucky enough to throw a couple of strikes and spares on a good day....See the point I'm trying to make? We can go on and on and on and on. It feels like you're looking for something you're not going to find. You can ask questions in a 100.000 different ways but that doesn't change a thing about the fact a negative VP game is not going to give you positive results in the long run.

[Alan Mendelson]

Im sorry, but bowling is purely a game of skill. The conditions on the bowling alley do not change unlike a video poker machine that has an RNG. Please come up with another analogy.

Now, everyone has decided that yes, you can win at negative expectation games. The question is what do you do with those winnings? Do you plow them back or do you keep them? You seem to deny that someone could pocket their wins enough times to beat a negative expectation game over time. Why?

[arcimede$]

I don't understand your analogy because bowling is only a game of skill. There is no RNG in bowling. Can you give me a better illustration of the point you're trying to make?

All sports have a luck factor involved. In baseball you bloop singles, swinging bunts, seeing eye ground balls, etc. In football you might have to defenders run into each other or a fumble bounce right into your hands, etc. In golf you can crazy bounces either toward the pin or away from it. I could go on and on. The point is luck sometimes swings with you sometimes against you. Just like in VP it usually averages out and skill wins more games.

Bowling probably has more luck than most. A ball hitting right on the nose might leave a big four split or it might result in a strike. In both cases the shot was not great but the results were totally different. And the condition of a bowling lanes changes dramatically during a league session.

[Alan Mendelson]

Really, you call it luck? I lettered and played tennis and basketball in high school and college. There was no luck involved. It was skill and hard work.