Originally Posted by
Don Perignom
This scenario describes an interesting advantage play scenario in a casino setting, likely involving craps (dice game), with a slim but consistent edge of +1 unit net profit per hour. Let's break it down:
Key Considerations:
1. Edge Consistency: A steady +1 unit profit per hour is significant in gambling. The edge might seem slim, but over time, it translates to a consistent positive expected value (EV), which is the hallmark of good advantage play.
2. Bankroll Management: The viability of the strategy depends on the relationship between the profit margin and the variance (risk). In craps, swings can be dramatic due to the nature of the bets. A slim edge would require a solid bankroll to withstand potential variance while realizing the long-term profit.
3. Practical Time Investment: Earning +1 unit per hour means the play is slow and steady. If you’re dedicating hours to this, you need to weigh whether the return on time invested is worthwhile compared to other opportunities.
4. Sustainability: Casinos actively look for advantage players, especially in games with edges against the house. Even if your strategy avoids overt detection (e.g., card counting or dice sliding), casino personnel may eventually notice patterns. Ensuring your play stays under the radar is critical.
5. Unit Size and Scaling: The worthiness of this strategy heavily depends on the unit size. If the unit is $5, that’s a modest $5/hour. If the unit is $100, it’s a significant $100/hour, making the play far more worthwhile.
6. Crew Dynamics: If a "crew" is involved, the logistics and potential for shared profits dilute the individual benefit. Coordination, trust, and a cut of profits can make a slim edge less lucrative.
Is it Worthwhile?
Yes: If the unit size is large enough to justify the time and bankroll required, and the risk of detection or barring from the casino is minimal.
No: If the unit size is small, the time investment is substantial, or there’s a high risk of the casino catching on.
Final Word, Hey Hey?
A steady edge, even slim, is gold in gambling, provided the math supports it and you can manage the associated risks. Just remember, the game isn’t just against the dice—it’s against the house, the clock, and sometimes, your patience. So buckle up, cat, and keep those moves smooth and unseen!