Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 55

Thread: As consumers of gambling information and advice, we need to know the records.

  1. #1
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    In video poker you can't win every day. Sorry, even on positive games you will lose some days.
    It's too bad that we consumers of video poker instruction (and that's what I am -- a consumer) can't subject the experts to an audit of their results. Before we put our money in a mutual fund we can see the track record of the fund. Before we invest with an asset manager we can see their results and even talk to other customers to see how they did following the advice of the manager. Before we enroll in a school, college or class, we can find out the placement results, income of graduates, jobs, test results, etc. of students and grads.

    But with video poker authors, gurus, and prophets we are at a big disadvantage. Of course they all claim to be winners but how do we know? And what did they win?

    We get little glimpses of information, and some of it is not flattering: Dancer telling us how he lost more than a car was worth to win the car. Singer admitting he lost $35,000 on a single trip but still managed an amazing profitable year of somewhere near $100k on average. And our friend Arcimede$ says he's earned over $100,000 (that's six figures) in a six year period playing quarter to dollar VP games even though he loses more sessions than he wins.

    Those of us who are just "consumers" need some reassurance from those who present themselves as professionals and experts.

    What reassurance do we get when Bob Dancer says he loses big in a promotion just to win a car that doesn't make up for the losses he suffered?
    What reassurance do we get when Rob Singer tells us that dumping $35,000 on a trip is an example of his strict discipline?

    We need some reassurance and I'm not sure how it can be given to us to know that when we follow someone's advice, the advice works and the author of the advice practices what they preach.

  2. #2
    One thing that should give you more confidence is the fact most winners are more than willing to admit they have lost many times. That is what a mathematical evaluation would tell you. It's when someone claims to win 88% of the time when the math tells you they should win less than 75% of the time that you should be skeptical.

    So far this year I've won 13 sessions and lost 13 sessions so I'm slightly above average. However, I've only had one RF so my average win is not as high as it normally would be. Overall I am around $6K ahead at the moment.

  3. #3
    Gee Arc, I'd love to see your breakdown by sessions... since there are only 26.

    So far this year at video poker, I've had 5 royals including one for $20K, one for $8K and 2 for $4k and one progressive for $4200. Yet, I'm showing a loss.

    You've had one royal flush, and you're 50/50 on your sessions and you're up by $6K ?? Wow, those one eyed jack machines must be magical.

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Gee Arc, I'd love to see your breakdown by sessions... since there are only 26.
    Keep in mind those values include freeplay, promotional cash wins and cashback. The biggest win is $3300 and the biggest loss is $3200. All the rest are between those two values. You can see it wouldn't take much for me to fall behind if I had a couple of big losses. Or, I could hit a couple of quick royals and get even further ahead (that's the one I'm hoping happens).

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    So far this year at video poker, I've had 5 royals including one for $20K, one for $8K and 2 for $4k and one progressive for $4200. Yet, I'm showing a loss.

    You've had one royal flush, and you're 50/50 on your sessions and you're up by $6K ?? Wow, those one eyed jack machines must be magical.
    It's the difference between a positive game with extras and a negative one. This is not rocket science. It is simply the math playing out as it should.

  5. #5
    Of course it's all because you are on positive expectation games, and I am on 8/5 bonus or 8/5 aces and faces -- with the exception of the progressive which was on 8/5 double double bonus that I hit with the first $100 bill in the machine.

    it's that positive expectation one-eyed-jacks game that allows you to have a six-thousand dollar profit with only one royal... and suckers like me with five royals can't come out ahead on our games that return 99.2%. Yep, it's ALL in the math.

  6. #6
    It's pretty clear to me that Arci is enjoying an abnormal high number of decent middling-sized jackpot hands without many royals for OEJ's while Alan is suffering a drought of quads in between all those royals. I've experienced both of those kinds of streaks.

    If you went almost 200,000 hands without a royal, Alan, and you've hit five this year...well....there's the math catching up in a way, isn't it?

  7. #7
    I should make this clear: While I am not showing a profit, Im not losing that much money this year. And the "loss" is nothing like what I had when I was in that royal flush drought.

  8. #8
    I seem to remember Alan stating he did not lose all that much during his royal drought. I think he stated he was doing well on the secondary jackpots. I suspect he's now do less well on those jackpots.

    Alan, how many hands have you played? How many at the $5 denom?

  9. #9
    It is more difficult for me to estimate the number of hands played this year because most of the play is at $2 and a lot at $1 and not as much at $5. So there is no easy calculation using my tier score.

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    It is more difficult for me to estimate the number of hands played this year because most of the play is at $2 and a lot at $1 and not as much at $5. So there is no easy calculation using my tier score.
    One thing that happens when you play multiple denoms is your results are very dependent on your hits at the highest denom. That was why I ask. I see 3 of your royals were at $1 yet you just stated that $2 was where most of your play has occurred. This is probably why you are behind.

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    One thing that happens when you play multiple denoms is your results are very dependent on your hits at the highest denom. That was why I ask. I see 3 of your royals were at $1 yet you just stated that $2 was where most of your play has occurred. This is probably why you are behind.
    I think that's a reasonable assessment. Thanks.

  12. #12
    Well, I thought I'd just add that I'm down about 1K for the previous year, and the only time I touch a negative EV machine is when there's some promotional reason to do so for a very, very brief time. I've had zero royals this year in limited play. My worst beating was on the progressive 10/7 quarters machine at the Four Queens in Las Vegas.

    You don't win all the time, dudes. That's reality.

  13. #13
    Just need to press the DEAL/DRAW button at the right time more often, that's all. Sort of like swinging a baseball bat at a fast pitch. Just take your time and go with your feeling as to when to press that button. It can't hurt any, right?

    EDIT - An argument could be made that it would hurt to take your time and go with the feeling on Positive EV machines as it would slow down your play, yet if it's Negative EV it really can't hurt any and it would slow down the theoretical losses in any case.
    Last edited by Count Room; 08-04-2012 at 08:57 AM.

  14. #14
    I've had some pretty big downswings myself. I always manage to find an upswing to match. The last four months of last year and the first three months this year were pretty bad. My largest downswing ever. But I've now had 4 consecutive winning months and won my first time out in August.

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Well, I thought I'd just add that I'm down about 1K for the previous year, and the only time I touch a negative EV machine is when there's some promotional reason to do so for a very, very brief time. I've had zero royals this year in limited play. My worst beating was on the progressive 10/7 quarters machine at the Four Queens in Las Vegas.

    You don't win all the time, dudes. That's reality.
    I've put in a lot of read time here before joining, and what you say is interesting because you've now joined Alan (and me) in admitting to real-time losing. I also saw where the forum's buddy Singer piled on arcimeds for something like never coming out and saying he had a losing streak unless he could ease things by saying how the winning has returned and profits are in-hand, and he just did exactly that in a post above. There is entertainment to be had he after all!

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by jatki View Post
    I've put in a lot of read time here before joining, and what you say is interesting because you've now joined Alan (and me) in admitting to real-time losing. I also saw where the forum's buddy Singer piled on arcimeds for something like never coming out and saying he had a losing streak unless he could ease things by saying how the winning has returned and profits are in-hand, and he just did exactly that in a post above. There is entertainment to be had he after all!
    Well, I guess you missed by comment a few months ago about losing 8 out of 9 sessions. Sounds like you'd rather make nasty comments than participate in the discussion.

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Well, I guess you missed by comment a few months ago about losing 8 out of 9 sessions.
    I'm sorry but I missed this. I thought you win 45% of your sessions?

  18. #18
    Why is my comment a nasty comment arcimedes? All I pointed out is what I read, and I did not see anywhere that you said you were currently in a losing streak. If you lead me to it then I'll accept it.

    I can also answer Alan's question. He'll say he's also won 8 of 9 sessions, or maybe even 9 of 10 so no one gets the wrong idea. I'm sorry arcimedes, but you're laying yourself out here and I'm only compiling an answer from previous information you've provided.

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I'm sorry but I missed this. I thought you win 45% of your sessions?
    Yes, you're point? I thought you of all people understood VP is streaky. 45% is the number over time.

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by jatki View Post
    Why is my comment a nasty comment arcimedes? All I pointed out is what I read, and I did not see anywhere that you said you were currently in a losing streak. If you lead me to it then I'll accept it.
    Your read a couple of posts and came running in making assertions. That is what I would call nasty.

    Originally Posted by jatki View Post
    I can also answer Alan's question. He'll say he's also won 8 of 9 sessions, or maybe even 9 of 10 so no one gets the wrong idea. I'm sorry arcimedes, but you're laying yourself out here and I'm only compiling an answer from previous information you've provided.
    No, I didn't lay myself out. You were looking for something to criticize and decided, based on reading just a few comments, to jump in and make a nasty statement. That tells me all need to know about you.

    In general I do not comment about my results unless I am asked specifically or it relates to a topic. By the time that comes around I've usually been through many sessions. Sorry if that is beyond your comprehension skills.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •