Did this retard just say there's no such thing as sports betting?
Did this retard just say there's no such thing as sports betting?
"Superior or on Par with". Where Red? Where have I EVER, in ALL the time on this forum said anything that would make anyone think I feel superior to anyone?
Just about everything I do and have done in advantage play has been on the simpler side of different things. Card counting...probably the simplest form of all advantage play. With video poker....exploiting the casino mailers. The very simplest of anything you can do with video poker. And now Sports betting....very similarly, exploiting the bonuses, which in reality isn't even about sports betting.
It is beyond me how ANYBODY could come to the conclusion that I think I am better than anybody. In the AP world, I have even said many times, what I do is the lower ring of the AP ladder. And frankly I love that. I love that I can and have won using the simplest of AP techniques.
That you feel threatened by what I do, only highlights some kind of insecurity on your part Red. And your use of terms like "Leonardo Da AP" only proves it. And you know what else proves your insecurities? You posting IQ score and SAT scores from 50 years ago. Who the fuck else does that? Something REALLY wrong with you Red.
It isn't my job to stroke your ego, or babysit you though your insecurities dude. You are 70 years old or thereabout. Get a fucking grip.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas
Shut the fuck up Dawg. Jdaewoo is correct. Shouldn't you be posting how you have won another $100k today, playing rated, while the pit folks give you a big sloppy kiss? Instead of sitting and waiting for me to post so you can troll some 7 minutes later.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
Redietz doesn’t even know grade school probability. His talk about probability theory for random events being applied to non random events is brain dead drivel conjured up to try and make himself look intelligent. It makes him look stupid.
Challenge to redietz. We bet every NFL regular season game. You make the picks. If you lay the fav I get 2 extra points. If you take the dog I get a 2 point discount. Easy pickings for you.
There is nothing redietz can do that a handicapper can’t do.
Challenge to redietz. We bet every NFL regular season game. You make the picks. If you lay the fav I get 2 extra points. If you take the dog I get a 2 point discount. Easy pickings for you.
Yep. He has no idea.
Go look up EV in wikipedia and look at where they talk about using stats to come to an EV value. It is what he ridicules others for but it is an accepted use of the word EV. That is why the word expected precedes value. It is all nonsense conjured up to make himself look intelligent.
But it is also him being threatened that others bet sports without a deep knowledge of the sports themselves. (infact often very little knowledge) Handicappers are great if they can do it. I don't think I've seen many if any people ridicule true accurate handicappers. The problem is that Redietz holds up his tournament history as his bona fides where you play many rec players and not professional books. It is a whole different games for many reasons but yet again it is where Redietz's ignorance shines through. I wish he'd stop it. He actually has a lot to contribute.
And maybe I should just be a nicer person and not point these things out ..... maybe. But then again you see how Redietz sees others and i'm like fuck it, why?
Those people are squid game potential.
The problem with the phrase "expected value" is that it denotes an actual established distribution of results. But what account, mickey, et al attempt is a substitution of the phrase "what I expect" for the phrase "what is expected." "What I expect" is ballpark, subjective nonsense with no real precision dressed up as if it were a precise mathematical estimate repeatable across people and across opinions.
If you are going to substitute "expected value" for "my opinion is," then the question becomes, "Why are you substituting 'EV' for 'my opinion'" and presenting it to the world as if you are actually performing precise math. You are not.
I don't hold up "tournament history" as bona fides. I hold up actual gambling records for 40 years as bona fides. If someone has the best ATS record versus other people over a span of 20 years in one competition or has consistently shown an overall profit as monitored by third parties for 45 years, then that is gambling reality. The "APs" posting here have no bona fides. They want people to simply take their word that they know what they're doing and that they make money.
I give Bob Dancer credit in this sense. He dipped his toe into sports betting, had the good sense to know what he didn't know, and got the hell out. That is a much better result than people like, say, Phil Ivey or Stu Ungar, who stepped into sports betting and got basically murdered, despite having access to every AP angle, trick, and priority in the world.
The classic example of "AP narcissism" on this forum has been The Riddler winning money (albeit not always a fortune; sometimes "only" a 20% or 25% return -- LOL) every single time, and KewlJ attempting to make the argument that it was simply the luck of winning eight events in a row. Even though some of the recommendations involved a dozen plays or more.
Now, do any of you brilliant "APs" really think The Riddler did that by getting lucky?
Unless you have some magic formula that turns non-random events into random ones, most of the "AP" discussions here regarding sports are pretty much nonsense. Now I know some of you believe you are brighter than an Ungar or an Ivey or a Dancer.
Which is funny as hell, when you think about it. You have guys driving around playing slots who have the brains and insights and contacts and experience to do what an Ivey or an Ungar or a Dancer have not been able to do. And lo and behold, they don't just do it for one sport; they do it for all of them by "sports betting."
This forum is blessed with a real collection of polymaths. It's a shame none of them are adjunct professors.
That's where the moniker, "Leonardo da AP" comes from. People who have no sense of their own limitations. And such scintillating, verifiable success stories spanning decades. One is left in awe. If only Ungar or Ivey or Dancer could have learned from them.
Last edited by redietz; 01-30-2025 at 12:27 PM.
Anyone who uses EV will also be able to substitute "what I expect". Your point?
Again, I ask you read the wikipedia which goes over this. It is accepted amongst many people outside of this forum that one can use EV that is backed by some sort of statistics. It isn't just this forum. Not only that, all real sports bettors (guys who don't fuck with contests) will also use the phrase EV. These are men who have done far better in life than anything you have demonstrated to us. 100% reality talk.
No one is claiming it is "precise math". (Whatever that means.) It is precise within the context and far more precise than your opinions. I can promise. But yes, people can be completely wrong about how the derive their EV. Just like a handicapper can be a complete joke but they can call themselves a handicapper all day. Typically there is a methodology behind someone's belief when they use the phrase EV as it pertains to sports betting. You're right though it is not 100% objective.
Given your dedication to sports betting it is a shame you can't comprehend these things or perhaps you could have found yourself in a lot better place financially due to not be relying on yearly contests where the EV is probably not even $500 but they're quite beatable. You're basically competing against a field full of non-pros.
lol you haven't a clue about stu ungar or phil ivey. Don't even act like you do. And who is claiming they were professoinal sports bettors? Both of those men loved action.
Yes you hold up your tournament results all the time. Picking a side on an ATS and having it recording doesn't take into account the actual vig. You don't seem to get that. "ATS" does not mean winning money. You don't get this because you don't understand EV. I'm sorry but this is the reality, Redietz. Instead of being an ass - you should have read Mickey's thread on sports betting. Maye you could finally learn these things when you're still going at it.
No, they understand the value of time and EV and realize you're a joker. No one wants to play your silly little 'riddle me this, riddle me that'. It is just more shit you spew to try and elevate yourself as being intellectually superior. If not that it is your meh math score (credit though for you not lying about it). Or your credit score. lol. You're just too insecure for this forum.
Yes, luck was involved in your streak. It is YOUR narcissim that discards that component. That isn't to say you didn't make intelligent choices in your pick but of course there is luck involved.
I offered you a friendly wager once. And of course you backed down with some lame excuse like to be expected. Just like you havent' went on any shows. Some lame excuse.
Of course you got lucky. If there was no luck involved and you were as good as you claim, you wouldn't be living in a Tennessee shack. (Possibly inherited from your father?)
No, you know very little including what people think. I have other things to do than deal with some joker who calls themselves the Riddler in third person while attempting to brag.
I love you though man, you're one of the most entertaining people on here by far. Only Kewl could even be in the running for being so unintentionally amusing. Singer and Mdawg have some sort of self-awareness. THe other great thing about you is your arrogance - it removes any guilt I might have from picking on you.
Who are you talking about driving aroudn playing slots? I only know Mickey does that. I have some in the past but I was never professional and really only drove around once for a week. I only tried to play with an advantage. Mickey at least figures things out as he encounters them. All you do is geek out hard on football then sit around thinking everyone should idiolize you. Goofy shit.
I know, say "Leonardo da AP" again as if you aren't deeply insecure and jealous of random APs who probably don't do that great but sitll do better than you.
BTW thanks for this post because I responded to it while doing cardio. Something I hate to do but correcting you is compelling and interesting enough that the last 30 minutes went by pretty quickly.
Red seems to know someone (by 3 degrees) that is a top professional in EVERY field. A friend's, cousin's boyfriend, ect.
I would recommend that he find which every friend or associate knows someone in the field of mental health, because I am pretty sure anyone in that field will tell you that talking of yourself in the third person is well on the way down the path of Narcissism. And talking about yourself in the third person with some sort of name like "The Riddler" or "the Pope of Las Vegas", even further down that road.
If you haven't dismissed Red as nuts before now, with this "Riddler" shit is now the time to do so.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
Easy to figure out why Billy Walters fired Dietz. Walters collected statistics and bet on them while Dietz was saying "My opinion is this. My opinion is that....." You know Walters got tired of that shit in a hurry. Walters said "fuck your opinion. I bet the statistics."
Walters explained to Joe Rogan that if his line is 8 and the bookie's line is 6 he bets 1 unit on the dog.
If Walters' line is 8.5 and bookie line is 6 he bets 2 units on the dog.
If Walters' line is 9 and bookie line is 6 he bets 3 units on the dog.
etc, etc.
In other words, the greater the expected value the more he bets.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...YTa1BYQ1cDPNKD
Challenge to redietz. We bet every NFL regular season game. You make the picks. If you lay the fav I get 2 extra points. If you take the dog I get a 2 point discount. Easy pickings for you.
Dietz wrongly states there's only one right way( the 1980's-1990's way) to skin a cat. He claims one must be an expert in one area with years of experience to make a good living. He claims everything else is just a fluke/dead/has no longevity/ isn't possible/probable / too hard/ not sustainable, needs too big of a bankroll, etc. While one or more of those things might be true at one time or another, that just isn't true all the time or even a majority of the time.
I and others understand why he needs to tout that there is only one way to skin a cat while claiming you must be a specialized expert in that area. Why? Because his business model depends on others investing in his supposed skill while giving him a free roll. If people knew there were much better opportunities to make bigger profits for less investment, they wouldn't even entertain his services. One with his business model must do everything they can to dis all other forms of AP and +EV sports betting so those suckers don't wise up.
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