Shout Out to Boz

[redietz]

Not sure Boz would appreciate my quoting his wagers, but what the hell. He made a nice profit on Buffalo at 17-1 to win the SB, which was a good job of team and schedule analyses and a better job of shopping for numbers. Plus, the Bills kind of got screwed by the officials, so he was a John Madden, "left foot, right foot" away from having a 17-1 shot in the SB plus winning whatever hedge he would have launched on KC in a close game. Damned shame to not have them in the SB, but a profit is a profit, so congrats on that. Almost made a semi-killing.

KC, with their results, reminds me of an old, old Wash Redskin team that made it to the SB on a wing and a prayer and experience, while not really being all that good. KC avoided the statistically best team, Baltimore, got to beat on the worst playoff team, the Texans, and then played Buff at home in what everyone knew would be a tight one. And here they are, a historic team doing historic things.

[The Boz]

I tried to send you a long update but your PM’s were full and I’m not writing all that again. Anyways I broke the Wizards nonsense rule of “never hedge”. But yea, I did make out OK…..on this one.

[redietz]

I tried to send you a long update but your PM’s were full and I’m not writing all that again. Anyways I broke the Wizards nonsense rule of “never hedge”. But yea, I did make out OK…..on this one.

I did not know he had that kind of rule. What a maroon. Really. The more I learn about him, the less respect I have.

Let me state this more clearly -- if he's the creme de la creme of casino gambling:

I mean, yeah, no hedging is a great theory if you're Methuselah or Dracula. Or if you really have zero judgement or knowledge regarding what you have leverage on. In which case, of course, you shouldn't have bet it in the first place...because you have zero context.

Sorry about the inbox. I am not posting here any longer since the posters are, at best, pretty much on an intellectual par with Shackleford (not counting mickey, but he has his other issues).

The thing about Shackleford's "no hedging" when you have leverage in sports betting -- he completely misses the essence, the soul, of the project. Of the situation.

LOL. I'm giving away a little of the farm here, but it's so fucking obvious -- like the problems with the "parlay calculator" idea.

Shackleford's advice treats everything as if the odds are a crystalline reflection of a crystalline reality. In other words, he is applying the logic (and math) of truly random events to non-random processes. Which is what the Kewlj's do, ad nauseum.

If a team has overcome long odds like the Bills (17-1, after all) and reach a point where they are now 4-1 or thereabouts (which was the case after the Eagles won and before the Bills played), the appropriate analysis is NOT to presume the odds were "correct" at 17-1 or are now "correct" at 4-1. The appropriate analysis is to (at the least) consider that the 17-1 odds were wrong and the 4-1 odds may be wrong in the other direction. The obvious conclusion, therefore, if you consider these as non-random processes (which any math professor should), is that hedging is (at worst) a toss-up thing to do, and hedging should actually be your default.

Because, ta taaa, these are not coin flips.

That was succinct and semi-understandable. I am proud of myself.

These perspectives do not require a Mensan (for the record, my average IQ test topped Shackleford, by the way). These perspectives are, to use some Schuylkill County lingo, fucking obvious to anyone with a few neurons to rub together. Any world-class bookmaker knows this stuff. He may not be able to lay it out in two paragraphs, but he knows it.

And no, I am not a mathematician. If I need math questions answered, (1) Karen's brother got the perfect math SAT, (2) I have a retired friend who taught college probability (and NOT as an adjunct) and (3) my neighbor is a world class mathematician who's considered one of the couple hundred or so people who actually grasps Einstein.

I did, however, play hoops with the Penn State math department grad/faculty team for a couple of years. It was like staying at a Holiday Inn Express.

[monet]

lol Future Betting with Hedging is the way to play!
Oh, and Teasers... can't forget the optimal Teaser Play.