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Thread: Isn't it one continuous session....

  1. #1
    So I go and play at the casino today and win my win goal and go home. Tomorrow, next week or next month I go back and play again. Besides the V P games internally cycling during my absence, how does it really affect things. Could you not keep playing for your win goals over and over forever theoretically, until going broke or cleaning out the casino ?
    It is nice to go home a winner but if you don't stop playing all together I don't see how it really matters.

    Ron

  2. #2
    It doesn't but some people have selective memories. They think only the situations related to those memories will occur in the future.

  3. #3
    The question really comes down to this:

    Is it possible to finish more "short sessions" with a positive balance to beat what would otherwise be a negative expectation game?

    In other words, can you go to a casino and play 9/6 Jacks (a negative game) and cash out like this:
    Trip # 1 Win $10
    Trip # 2 Win $10
    Trip # 3 Win $10
    Trip # 4 Loss $10
    Trip # 5 Win $10
    And repeating that pattern can you be a "long term winner"?

    Or to put it another way:

    Why must you lose because the pay table says you will lose when you play in the short term and the pay table is based on the long term?

    That's the question.

  4. #4
    I kind of agree with Alan but I didn't for a number of years. I know someone will come on and say that $10 loss has to be a $100 loss, but who says those wins don't have to be large either? What difference does it make if any of the games played are above or below 100%. None, that's what. If you can't look at this for what it is and must run it out into millions of played hands in order to understand it or make a worthless point, you're ducking reality.

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    The question really comes down to this:

    Is it possible to finish more "short sessions" with a positive balance to beat what would otherwise be a negative expectation game?

    In other words, can you go to a casino and play 9/6 Jacks (a negative game) and cash out like this:
    Trip # 1 Win $10
    Trip # 2 Win $10
    Trip # 3 Win $10
    Trip # 4 Loss $10
    Trip # 5 Win $10
    And repeating that pattern can you be a "long term winner"?

    Or to put it another way:

    Why must you lose because the pay table says you will lose when you play in the short term and the pay table is based on the long term?

    That's the question.
    The answer to your question is the same as the answer to this question ... Why doesn't a coin come up heads 80% of the time.

  6. #6
    Arc, here's the problem. You keep using expected return in place of actual return.

    No one disputes your expected return. But even a mathematician accepts that expected may not be actual.

    You of course don't accept the idea that something can vary.

    I am sure that somewhere in the world someone has flipped a coin and 80% of the time it came up heads during the ten times or one hundred times they flipped it.

    Even you Arc agree that in any given session on a negative expectation game someone can win. But you think that a win here, and a win tomorrow, and a win the next day will somehow alert the math Gods to be sure that successive plays will all be losers.

    Why can't you just become a reasonable person and say... "look, you're supposed to lose playing a negative expectation game. But you can beat the odds and win, and good luck to you" ?? Now, why can't you say that?

    Oh, I know why!! Because Singer claims to win at negative expectation games. And if Singer says black, Arc says white. If Singer says green, Arc says red. If singer says odd, Arc says even.

    The point is Arc, I am sure there are people who win all the time on negative expectation games, just as there are people who lose all the time on positive expectation games.

  7. #7
    Answer the fricking question Alan. Why doesn't a coin flip come up 80% heads? Quit deflecting with your idiotic nonsense and claiming I've said things I've never said. Time for you to demonstrate exactly how you can get a coin to come up heads 80% of time.

  8. #8
    I just flipped a coin ten times and it came up tails 8 times. I did it again and it came up tails 8 times again. Then I quit because if it can happen two times in a row then it can happen a hundred, and my thumb got tired just thinking about it.

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Answer the fricking question Alan. Why doesn't a coin flip come up 80% heads? Quit deflecting with your idiotic nonsense and claiming I've said things I've never said. Time for you to demonstrate exactly how you can get a coin to come up heads 80% of time.
    Actually, Arc, if you want to make a bet on coin flips, be careful. US coins are not evenly weighted. The head side is heavier than the tails side. MIT did a study on this back in the 1960s. the reason is that the portrait contains more metal.

    So in theory, US coins will be over time 50/50 heads or tails. in reality, heads is heavier and the heads side will settle down. If you flip the coin in your hand, you can reverse this.

    I've often wondered if anyone ever tested the SuperBowl coins for their weight distribution? I'm going to assume that they carefully designed the coins to be equally weighted.

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by jatki View Post
    I just flipped a coin ten times and it came up tails 8 times. I did it again and it came up tails 8 times again. Then I quit because if it can happen two times in a row then it can happen a hundred, and my thumb got tired just thinking about it.
    After posting my response to Arc, I saw your post. Did you flip the coin and let them settle on the ground? What denomination coin did you use, and was it in "new" condition or worn?

    If a "new" or uncirculated coin it would make sense that the heads side is on the bottom. Basic gravity.

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Actually, Arc, if you want to make a bet on coin flips, be careful. US coins are not evenly weighted. The head side is heavier than the tails side. MIT did a study on this back in the 1960s. the reason is that the portrait contains more metal.

    So in theory, US coins will be over time 50/50 heads or tails. in reality, heads is heavier and the heads side will settle down. If you flip the coin in your hand, you can reverse this.

    I've often wondered if anyone ever tested the SuperBowl coins for their weight distribution? I'm going to assume that they carefully designed the coins to be equally weighted.
    More deflection. Are you going to answer the question or not?

  12. #12
    I answered the question. In theory, over time, you should get an even distribution of heads and tails.

    So what's your point?

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I answered the question. In theory, over time, you should get an even distribution of heads and tails.

    So what's your point?
    If you believe that to be true for flipping coins why do you not believe it to be true for VP? If one gets an even distribution of the possible hands then the best they can expect over that period is the ER of the game.

  14. #14
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    After posting my response to Arc, I saw your post. Did you flip the coin and let them settle on the ground? What denomination coin did you use, and was it in "new" condition or worn?

    If a "new" or uncirculated coin it would make sense that the heads side is on the bottom. Basic gravity.
    I just did it in my hand with a quarter, which says it's one of those newer state ones, Ohio.

  15. #15
    Perhaps it is true with VP. But I dont play VP for millions of hands and Singer certainly doesn't with his win goal system.

    You are arguing apples and oranges. No one disputes the math. All anyone is saying is that Singer plays differently. And he apparently catches the good side of your bell curve. LOL

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Perhaps it is true with VP. But I dont play VP for millions of hands and Singer certainly doesn't with his win goal system.
    Why do you think a million hands will make any difference? The odds are present on every hand you play just like every coin you flip. They don't change unless you change games. The claim that the short term is different is nonsense. And, I've explained this to you many times before. What part of independent trials don't you understand?

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    You are arguing apples and oranges. No one disputes the math. All anyone is saying is that Singer plays differently. And he apparently catches the good side of your bell curve. LOL
    That could be true or he could be lying, but that is not what is being discussed. The question is what can you do in the future. The answer is that none of the win/loss stops make any difference in your future expectation any more than if you stop flipping a coin one day and restart the next day will change the results.

  17. #17
    Now arci thinks all machines operate exactly the same, and the same hands are always coming up on every machine in the same order....like the coin flip.

    Tough days will do that to you. :)

  18. #18
    Thinking further about Alan's reply to my post, I venture to say that we play then until the machine gets into it's hot-evening out- cycle. Experience has taught us these cycles wont last so we cash out while hopefully ahead until next trip, therefore experiencing the short term luck. And we have all seen the hot cycles these machines are capable of.

  19. #19
    Arc the odds don't change from hand to hand. The expected return does not change from hand to hand. But your ACTUAL results can vary. Why can't you just deal with it? Why must you be so devoted to your thworetical results? You're like a bad bbroken record.

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Now arci thinks all machines operate exactly the same, and the same hands are always coming up on every machine in the same order....like the coin flip.

    Tough days will do that to you.
    Lie. It has nothing to do with the same result. It is all about frequencies. It doesn't take long for a player to see a jacks or better result around every 5 hands. Two pair around every 10 hands. The basic hands show up with enough frequency to average out in a few sessions. That only leaves the low frequency hands. Now, why would anyone believe they show up any more than they should based on the same exact probability concepts as the high frequency hands?

    The answer is easy ... they don't. Over time they will show up at close to the frequency they should. You will have short term higher frequencies and short term lower frequencies. Normal variation.

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