Originally Posted by
Alan Mendelson
I really wish you would play some craps or some live poker, Arc. You might have a different outlook on gambling.
Let me give you an example for craps:
The math says that betting on the 12 is one of the two worst bets on the craps table. The other miserable bet is betting on the 2, or "aces." Depending on the casino you are at, this bet pays either 30 to 1 or 29 to 1. It is a one roll bet meaning if the dice do not show that number on the very next roll, you lose your bet. Betting on the 2 or 12 are different than betting on the 6 for example, because the bet on the 6 "lives" or remains until a "7 out" is rolled.
Everyone who plays craps knows that betting on the 2 or 12 is just an awful bet with a high house edge or advantage. Except that there are shooters who do throw more 2s and 12s for various reasons. Let's say these shooters can set their dice and throw them in a certain way that favors a 2 or 12.
When they shoot the "math" and the "probability" still says betting on the 2 or 12 is an awful bet. But the math probability tables do not account for a shooter who can influence the dice.
Now, in video poker, one cannot alter or influence the RNG... at least legally they can't. But after cards are dealt on the VP machine what cards you choose can influence the return of the game and sometimes that influence can help your bottom line. The classic example I use is playing Triple Double Bonus and being dealt three aces with a kicker. By holding the kicker along with the three aces your outcomes include:
1. Three aces only
2. Full house drawing the same value kicker
3. Drawing the fourth ace only for a return = to a royal flush.
By holding the three aces only, your outcomes include:
1. Having three aces only.
2. Drawing 11 different full house possibilities
3. Two chances for drawing the fourth ace.
4. Chance of drawing the case Ace plus a kicker.
Rob compares holding three aces with a kicker to just holding the three aces (the Special Play), this way:
Ac Ah Ad 5s 4c: OH=AAA4 @ $97.13; SP=AAA @ $78.32
I'm different from you Arc. If I see a shooter throwing a lot of 2s and 12s, I'm gong to start betting on 2s and 12s. And if I have trip aces in TDB with a big payoff for quad aces (bigger than what quad aces gets in Bonus) I'm going to just hold the aces.