Results 1 to 8 of 8

Thread: Putting skill and luck into place in video poker.

  1. #1
    I got very lucky the other night and hit a royal at Harrah's Rincon. This is the same royal I talked about in this thread: http://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/showth...odest-win-goal.

    And here is the photo again. Take a look a look at the photo because I'd like to discuss it.



    I was actually dealt a straight, with a 9 of diamonds. Proper strategy tells us to sacrifice a dealt straight when you have four cards to a royal flush. That's what I did and I got lucky. I drew the Ace of hearts for the royal. I can't tell you how many times I've had four to the royal over the many years of play and did not draw the royal card -- or even a card to make a flush, or a straight, or even get a paying pair.

    Earlier on the same machine I was dealt four to the royal twice and drew a "blank" meaning a card that did not give me a paying pair.

    However, these four card royals do connect. The royal in this photo actually is my second royal in a row where I was dealt four to the royal and drew the royal card. And the royal above was the third royal this year (I've had a total of six this year) where I was dealt four to the royal and drew the royal card.

    Had you asked me a year ago I would have told you that drawing the fifth card for a royal was pretty much a pipe dream. Although about eight years ago I also got a royal after dropping one card which gave me a straight and drawing the royal card.

    So how much of this was luck and how much of this was skill? Clearly, what the RNG or random number generator gives you is a matter of luck or being in the right place at the right time. The skill is knowing when to take the chance, as in this case, giving up a dealt straight which was worth $40 for a chance at a royal flush for $8,000.

    When I first started playing video poker -- and this goes back perhaps 15 years ago -- I vividly recall being dealt a flush with four cards to the royal, and I held the flush. My reasoning was this: a flush in the hand is worth a royal in the bush. But this was before I read my first video poker book, or read my first magazine article about it. (There was no "Internet" site back then to check for proper strategy.)

    But while I did use "skill" to decide to go for the royal in the photo above, the reality is it was all luck. "Luck" gave me the four to the royal. All of the practice I put in using practice software, all of the hours spent reading books and web sites and Internet articles and magazine, all of the discussions I've had about proper strategy, even the seminars I've attended with gaming gurus about video poker proper strategy had absolutely no impact on the RNG.

    It was luck that had me sitting in the seat and pressing the button at the exact moment that the RNG was about to spit out a straight with four to the royal. And it was luck that had the Ace of Hearts as the replacement card when I pushed the draw button.

    Yes, skill and knowledge are important, but it's still a game of luck.

    So why is this important? It's important because there are now court decisions, and legislative efforts to legalize online gaming either within state boundaries or even nationally. Live poker or Internet Poker as it is known, has a pretty good shot of seeing daylight soon in several states and perhaps in a nationwide network. Live poker or poker played against other players has a much higher skill element and for that reason it has a better chance of approval than "video poker" where your fate is pretty much all controlled by a gambling device.

    While there are many who would like to legalize all forms of online casino gambling, live poker with its various skill elements such as betting, bluffing, reading, drawing really has a better shot as an approved skill game than video poker played with one human vs. one machine has.

    Personally, I think the casino industry is going to shoot itself in the foot if it gets involved or supports any kind of online gaming, including online "live poker."

  2. #2
    A tougher choice for most players is when you're dealt 9-K straight flush.

    But concerning the luck factor, even the highest of skills can be applied hand after hand after hand for hours and the Gaming Gods might not be on your side at all. Been there, done that.

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by Vegas Vic View Post
    A tougher choice for most players is when you're dealt 9-K straight flush.
    If you follow proper strategy, when dealt a straight flush 9-K you hold the SF in every game but deuces (if there are no deuces in the hand).

    You do not sacrifice 250 coins for a 1/47 shot at a royal. In deuces you make the exception because a SF in deuces does not pay 250 coins but pays considerably less and if you have four to the royal without a deuce, you break up the SF for the shot at the royal. The exception being if you hold a deuce -- you never drop a deuce.

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    If you follow proper strategy, when dealt a straight flush 9-K you hold the SF in every game but deuces (if there are no deuces in the hand).

    You do not sacrifice 250 coins for a 1/47 shot at a royal. In deuces you make the exception because a SF in deuces does not pay 250 coins but pays considerably less and if you have four to the royal without a deuce, you break up the SF for the shot at the royal. The exception being if you hold a deuce -- you never drop a deuce.
    I know the proper play, but most players don't. That foyal is tantalizing, though.

  5. #5
    Several years ago I was at Rincon playing the $1 progressive when a player dealt the K high SF dropped the 9 and drew the royal.

  6. #6
    After driving almost all night my head's still spinning from the challenges this "bus" presents, and my mind won't sleep for a while so I'll add to what Alan said. The math people will say, with all their inimitable & boring book probability theory, that "over time" hitting a dealt four-to-the-royal will "average out" to 1 in 47 tries, so if you miss on 460 in a row you "should" see ten in a row hit. The math "never fails" so they say.

    However, strong players neither buy that type of BS, nor do they care about it. Why? Because they know the math has absolutely nothing to do with if you're going to convert that exciting dealt hand. It was luck just to get that far, and it is even more luck if you convert. Your machine has no idea what you did in the past and it doesn't care. All that can be said of it is that whoever's currently playing it is at the total mercy of where it may be in its long term journey, and the only way the player can experience winning is if they experience luck. A player's vp "skill" never means anything more than a basic understanding of the game they choose to play. The rest is up to the machine's RNG, and this is because the long term math only applies to the casinos and the machines.

    One thing I noticed Alan. You had a sequential royal the way that thing came out. It took six cards but it was still rare.

    That $1 progressive where the guy threw out the SF for the royal could have been the right play if he was an AP and the royal was high enough--like Frank would do if warranted. My strategy says to always keep the SF in ANY situation.
    Last edited by Rob.Singer; 08-27-2012 at 10:15 AM.

  7. #7
    I was there when the lady dropped the 9 and the royal was about $4600. Rarely does that progressive get above $4800 and its usually hit under $4400 bacause the machines are usually all in play.

    I've seen that progressive royal hit twice in an hour too. $1 VP is very popular at Rincon.

  8. #8
    The skill is understanding what pays off the best over time. Getting the royal card is not really any luckier than drawing the 4 of clubs. They have the same probability. But, I bet you'd consider yourself unlucky had you drawn the 4 of clubs.

    The reason the strategy tells you to toss the straight is because all you have to do is hit the royal (and other winning hands) the prescribed number of times to come out ahead vs. the holding the straight.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •