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Thread: What is your craps strategy?

  1. #1
    The game of craps has been described as "two games in one." The first game is the "come out roll" where (for the pass line shooter) a 7 or 11 is an immediate win. The second game is when a point is established during the come out roll -- and a point can be a 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10.

    In craps a 2 or 3 or 12 is a "loser" for the pass line player on the come out roll.

    So here's a question for you: If you are a pass line player do you load up your bet money on the pass line hoping for a 7 or 11 on the first roll, or, do you make a smaller bet on the pass line and saving money to bet "odds money" after the point is established?

    In the movie "Indecent Proposal," Demi Moore throws the dice for Robert Redford who has one million dollars on the pass line -- and she throws a seven and wins. I love this clip, watch:



    But was it really a smart play to put all of the bankroll "on the line"? Some players do this all the time in craps -- they put more money on the pass line and sacrifice the odds bet which actually returns more money for a "winner" on a point than is paid for a come out winner.

    One reason why players do this is that they are playing at denominations that are too high for their budgets. You should only play at a craps game where the denomination allows you to be full odds. If you can't bet full odds, then move down in a denomination.

    When you play at denominations that are too pricey for your budget you tend to make what amount to "stupid adjustments" in strategy.

    For example, at a $100 craps table, a player with a limited budget might bet $100 on the pass line but not bet the odds because his budget is strained just to make the pass line bets.

    Here is how the same amount of money with odds and without odds changes a payout:

    Let's say you have $60 to bet when a point of 6 is rolled.

    A. If all $60 is placed as the "flat bet" and wins, this pays even money, or $60.

    B. With traditional 5X odds (casinos allow you to bet five times the amount of the flat bet as odds on the 6), a player would have $10 on the pass line for the flat bet, keeping $50 for odds. If the point of six is made, the payoff would be:

    $10 flat bet is paid $10
    $50 odds bet is paid $60
    Total payoff is $70

    Here's another example with the point of 4 with a casino allowing 3X odds and a bet amount of $40.

    A. If no "odds bets" is made, then all $40 is on the pass line, and if the 4 is made the payoff is $40.

    B. If odds bets are made, the player would put $10 on the pass line and $30 odds, and the payoff would be this:

    $10 on the pass line would be paid $10.
    $30 on the "odds" would be paid $60.
    Total payoff $70

    What makes the payoffs bigger on the "odds bet money" is that it is paid at "true odds" reflecting the odds of winning the particular point bet.

    What is your strategy? Do you load up on the pass line hoping for the immediate win with a 7 or 11, or do keep money for odds hoping for a bigger pay day on the same amount of money?
    Last edited by Alan Mendelson; 09-10-2012 at 06:55 AM. Reason: bet amounts, payouts changed for simplification

  2. #2
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    In the movie "Indecent Proposal," Demi Moore throws the dice for Robert Redford who has one million dollars on the pass line -- and she throws a seven and wins. I love this clip, watch:



    But was it really a smart play to put all of the bankroll "on the line"? Some players do this all the time in craps -- they put more money on the pass line and sacrifice the odds bet which actually returns more money for a "winner" on a point than is paid for a come out winner.
    Yes it was a smart play because it was a one time deal.

    Your question looks to be not a fair comparison.

    If you are going to bet one time to double a bankroll as in the vid clip,
    the concept is know in the math world as "Bold Play"
    You have the highest probability to win by betting it all on one attempt.

    As most know the pass and the don't pass offer the highest win probability to double a bankroll for any one bet in Craps.

    Facts (average over at least 100 lifetime bets)
    The pass line, when it wins, on average wins about 45% on the come out roll.
    The other 55% is when a point is established.
    The don't pass, when it wins, on average only wins about 17% on the come out roll
    The other 83% is when a point is established.

    The vid scenario gave the highest probability of a win (comparing 49.292% to 49.298%)

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>
    My opinion follows here
    But if one is going to make at last 100 such lifetime bets, the best results come from betting least on the flat bet and the most on the odds bet.

    Only those that understand EV and Variance can grasp this concept unless one simulated this in a computer.

    Then, most just throw away any computer simulation results anyways, as a computer can not show what happens on a real Craps table.

    That leaves just the short term selective memory of those that actually play the game to tabulate all the dice rolls and bets that are resolved to show what really happens.

    Well, That will never happen, as it is too much work for everyone involved.

    So, play as you wish, in the end, it really does not matter what anyone does at a Craps table.
    A man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.


    Just bet the bets that will win on each roll, one can bet for a number or against a number,

    just like picking winning football games, better than the rest and you can leave this life here on earth saying you beat the game, only to find out that as you step into the next life, no one there really cares what you did here anyways.

  3. #3
    mustangsally, thanks for joining us and for posting.

    Your comment "as a computer can not show what happens on a real Craps table" might ruffle some feathers here among our video poker friends.

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    mustangsally, thanks for joining us and for posting.

    Your comment "as a computer can not show what happens on a real Craps table" might ruffle some feathers here among our video poker friends.
    Hi Alan.

    The reason why I put that in, every roll in Craps are not equally random, some rolls more than others.

    I have seen some barely get the dice to go 3 feet, maybe on purpose, but the roll was called a roll since the dice went at least past half the table. They were asked to make both hit the far wall.
    What about the dice rolls, and there are a many, where just one die hits the far wall and comes back but the other just dies within a foot of the wall.

    Is that as random as the 3 foot rolll, or as random as when both dice hit the wall?

    I say not.
    But will keep any proof I have to myself and my boyfriend.


    I find what is a random dice roll in Craps to be quite fascinating.
    There are rules on what is a no roll.

    But those many short rolls, are they truly random?

    A computer would have a hard time being programmed for this.

    Video Poker is all random, unless the program is set to not payout certain hands, like cheating. But we know NO casino has ever cheated a video poker player in Nevada in the past.

    hehe
    Google American Coin - License to Steal
    And that was the late 1980s!
    No one in the computer world is really any smarter today than was in the 80s! hehe

    The 80S... just look at the hair styles back then!

    Alan, can you post a pic of you from TV back then?
    I like this one


    Sally
    Last edited by mustangsally; 09-11-2012 at 03:28 PM. Reason: my fat fingers

  5. #5
    Sally, it's very interesting that you think a three foot roll is not random. My feeling is, it depends on the "intent" of the three foot roll. Was it a toss in the air that only went three feet? Did the dice bounce a few times? Or was it a dead cat bounce or a slide?

    As you know I was quoted by the LVRJ when they were reporting on the Wynn "dice sliding" case and I offered my own demonstration of dice sliding. This was done on a short, home table, but I just wanted to demonstrate what an actual "slide" is.



    Unless care was taken to minimize the rotation or bounce, I think even a "short roll" is still a random roll. However, as you pointed out, there are Gaming Commission rules which spell out what is a valid or "legal" roll. And those rules are:

    The dice must fly in the air.
    The dice must bounce once on the table surface.
    The dice must hit the back wall.

    By requiring those three elements, it is impossible to engineer a "slide" which is absolutely not allowed. In fact, the "slide" is automatically a "no roll" but as I told the LVRJ I saw it "get through" once at Caesars when a "don't shooter" was losing a lot of money and I think they felt sorry for him.

    And getting back to the Wynn case, how it got through without a "no roll" can only happen with dealer participation.

    Now, about a picture of me from the 1980s, will this do?



    That was a still frame from a report I did while at WTVJ in Miami and the actual report was used in the documentary "Cocaine Cowboys." The bank in the story was alleged to be a cocaine bank, laundering money for the cocaine cowboys.

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