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Thread: How to sell a gambling system, in five easy steps.

  1. #1
    I've decided that it's pretty easy to sell a gambling system. The gambling system doesn't have to actually "work" but you just have to give the appearance that it works. Some testimonials will help.

    I am writing this not because I want anyone to use this information to help them sell a system to an unsuspecting consumer, but I am writing this to keep consumers from buying into pipe dreams about gambling.

    Before I get into the five steps of selling a gambling system, a basic rule to remember: You can't beat the house in most games unless you get very lucky. There are exceptions, of course, but the exceptions are few otherwise the casino industry wouldn't be able to keep the lights on.

    This is not about the "exceptions" but this is about preventing you from buying into a false dream and the writings or lessons taught by a false prophet.

    The five steps for selling a gambling system:

    Step #1 You appeal to those who feel cheated -- the "lost."
    What better audience is there for a gambling system but people who have gambled and lost in casinos? Whatever they've tried before didn't work, so they are begging for something that will work. They are ready to buy.

    Step #2 You tell them that it's not their fault that they lost.
    You give them a reason that is totally out of their control for their losses. You might claim that the video poker or slot games are not random, or that they are rigged. You might say that the casino has placed the winning machines in certain positions. You might say that only insiders know which games to bet on, or which bets to make on the roulette wheel. You tell them, and reinforce the idea, that others have the knowledge they are lacking and you can provide the missing knowledge. At the same time, by telling your customers that they are not to blame for their losses you also give them hope that your solution will work.

    Step #3 Your have a solution: a system, a strategy, a plan.
    This plan is your plan, it is unique, it is something that no one else ever came up with before. If it weren't unique there would be no reason to buy it from you. You developed the plan and you invested heavily into it. You identify with your customers telling them that before you devised your system/plan you were a loser just like they are. Now, your system/plan changes everything.

    Step #4 You have the proof.
    Proof of your success in gambling can come in various ways. You can show tax forms, trophies, bracelets, photos of jackpots, newspaper articles and TV video clips, web articles. Of course, your wins don't have to come from your system. A photo of a jackpot doesn't mean that your system led to the jackpot. A photo of a check or a W2G gambling form doesn't say the system was responsible for the big win. So, evidence of any win, any jackpot, any success in a casino can be used to justify a system/plan because there is really no way to challenge it.

    Step #5 Remove the possibility of challenges to your system.
    You want to remove the challenges and make it difficult or impossible for anyone to challenge you or your system. How do you do that? First, you don't accept any challenges or tests. Second, you make the conditions of tests or challenges so difficult or high that few will accept. Third, you make the system so unique -- with changing conditions and changing requirements, that the system becomes impossible to test. You combine written material with lectures, and lectures with personal counseling sessions, and personal counseling sessions with a requirement of practice, and finally a disclaimer that it can't work 100% of the time because the casinos can catch on to you and they are changing their strategies to stop you. Remember, the casinos are out to get you -- you are the enemies of the casinos -- and the buyers of your plan/strategy/secrets must be kept aware that the casinos will do anything and everything to keep them from enjoying the forbidden fruit you are selling.

    Those are the five steps for selling a gambling system. Good luck.

  2. #2

  3. #3
    Auxiliary Add-Ons to the Mendelson System:

    6) Find a forum or website whose owner will not compare/contrast your system with what professional mathematicians or scientists would say, and which will provide a relative safe haven for the promulgation of your system.
    7) Flood said site or forum with friends/neighbors/acquaintances and Cybillized versions of yourself to present the illusion of a population that endorses and has succeeded with your system.

  4. #4
    One of our readers sent me this link which fits in with #5 above: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/1...ble-bet-tactic

    It's about creating an "unreasonable bet" with conditions and consequences so extreme that your opponent would back down. Sound familiar?

  5. #5
    Hi Alan,

    I’ve been lurking here for some time now, reading many of the posts. I was first “introduced” to you (MoneyLA) and arcimedes on the LVA boards. Now that it looks like both arcimedes and Rob Singer have left the boards, I thought it would be safe to join in to pose a few questions and make a few comments.

    Does Rob Singer have anything to gain by trying to convince people that he has the best winning VP system around? What is he selling? Books? DVDs? Is he really just trying to earn a few players’ club points by using his casino card while giving VP lessons to people?

    I decided to post my first comment under this thread because it looks like you are finally coming around to arcimedes’ way of thinking. Rob has claimed on these threads that:

    1. All VP machines are not random. He bases this on 1 machine he owns.
    2. He can detect “hot” and “cold” cycles that a machine is going through.
    3. He can end up with a net lifetime win on negative EV machines.


    I don’t know him, but his claims seem a bit far-fetched.

    As far as arcimedes goes, the math backs him up, but his claims of being able to play VP at +2% earning $100,000 overall at a casino doesn’t seem plausible to me. Wouldn’t a casino have gotten rid of these machines long ago? He seems like such a smart guy, isn’t there anything more productive he could do than to chase down small edges on VP?

    I never really got hooked on VP. I play mostly blackjack and live poker. I did have a VP training program, where you could select anywhere from a dozen or so different VP games with different pay-tables; some positive, and some negative. You could also input other variables such as stakes and the total number of hands the computer would auto-play for you (computer perfect play). Whenever you selected a negative EV game, and told the CPU to play 100 million hands, your final bankroll would always end up in the negative. The converse was true if you selected a positive EV game.

    My question for you or Rob Singer is this. When I plug in $1 stakes on a game that pays back only 99%, after 100 million hands, my final bankroll is almost always around -$5,000,000 (1% of $500 million). If you were playing this game, when during that $5,000,000 loss would you jump in and out to end up with a net profit?

  6. #6
    Hello and welcome a2a3dseddie and congratulations for picking the most difficult of all "handles" to accurately spell. LOL

    My opinions towards Rob actually haven't changed from the very beginning, but I have learned new things about his system that I did not know before that I disagree with. Had I known these positions from the start I would have objected to them from the start as well. My positions never changed.

    1. I never accepted nor do I agree that there is some widespread secret handshake deal to allow non random VP games.
    2. I never accepted that hot and cold cycles could be forecast or predicted like the weather. We see them in hindsight only is my belief, and we never know when they will start or end.
    3. Yes, I think you can win on negative expectation games and I see winners all the time at negative expectation games. Why the math guys say that you must lose on negative expectation games amazes me. It's as if they never heard of people getting lucky? Well, I'm going to say it again: people get lucky, and they also get lucky holding the wrong cards.

    Of course Arcimedes is right when he gives us the math. The math is right. But the math says that when you flip a coin over time heads should come up equally with tails. But there is a kid somewhere in the world who, when he flips a coin 100 times, will get 100 heads. It's not going to happen very often, but it's going to happen. Long=shots win races, favored horses lose. Canonero didn't finish the Belmont Stakes, my neighbor in Valencia won the California lottery twice, I got a kidney/pancreas transplant after being on the waiting list only five months, Rob Singer won a million dollars playing negative expectation video poker games.

    Now your question: When I plug in $1 stakes on a game that pays back only 99%, after 100 million hands, my final bankroll is almost always around -$5,000,000 (1% of $500 million). If you were playing this game, when during that $5,000,000 loss would you jump in and out to end up with a net profit?

    Well, let me ask you some questions:

    First, do I ever have a profit?
    Second, do I immediately jump out of the gate and win some huge amount?

    I don't think you're giving me or Rob or anyone enough information for them to answer your question. So let me ask you a question:

    You go to a casino with $5,000 and after playing video poker for about ten minutes you find that you now have $5,500. Would you quit playing and go home? Or do other things in Vegas besides gamble? Or would you keep playing hope to win more knowing that you could lose the profit and even the rest of your $5,000 bankroll?

  7. #7
    Alan,

    What you’re doing is hoping which is what the business plan of every casino is built on. What’s that quote from the movie ‘Casino’…”Running a casino is like selling people dreams for cash?”

    Yes, there could be someone in the world who could flip an honest coin and get 100 heads in a row, but wouldn’t you eventually go broke betting on the over 7 billion other people in the world first before finding him? Yes, long shots do come in, and pay well but they’re called long shots for a reason, and you will quickly go broke by consistently playing them. You play craps. Why not just play the Horn or Hop bets every roll? Don’t those bets have the highest pay offs? Why not become a 10 spot professional Keno player? It’s because the high house edge will eventually bust you.

    Yes, people get lucky playing negative EV games. People win on slot machines (all –EV) all the time. But it cannot be done consistently for you or anyone to be an overall winner. That’s what every single casino ever built bases its’ business on.

    In my actual VP software simulator if you play 100 million hands, there is no –EV game you can play that will result in a final positive bankroll. My initial question was, what makes you think that the sessions you or Rob could play within those 100 million hands would be any different than the ones a random person would play? Remember, the software plays each hand “computer perfect”. How can you or anyone predict when the machine will pay off?

    As for myself, I am an overall loser playing all casino games, but an overall winner when it comes to poker. If no one believes me, I can give you my name and you can check for yourself on the World Series of Poker website and Sharkscope (online poker tournament tracker). These days when I go to a casino, I play for fun. If I win a few hundred dollars that will pay for the tank of gas in my car or a nice meal in a restaurant or for something I saw in the gift shop, I’ll stop. I don’t lose $35000 trying to book a $2500 win, and I don’t play a set number of hours or dollars through a machine trying to maintain a tier level or earn comps. So to answer your question, if I won $500 within 10 minutes playing video poker, I would quit. I would buy some show tickets, or something nice for my children. Winning puts you in a good mood, and I’d like to savour it for as long as possible.

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie View Post
    Hi Alan,

    I’ve been lurking here for some time now, reading many of the posts. I was first “introduced” to you (MoneyLA) and arcimedes on the LVA boards. Now that it looks like both arcimedes and Rob Singer have left the boards, I thought it would be safe to join in to pose a few questions and make a few comments.
    No, neither one of us is gone. Singer just posts under jatki and I stated "I'm done" trying to get the facts through Alan's thick skull. Interestingly, as soon as I quit he appears to have figured it out.

    Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie View Post
    Does Rob Singer have anything to gain by trying to convince people that he has the best winning VP system around? What is he selling? Books? DVDs? Is he really just trying to earn a few players’ club points by using his casino card while giving VP lessons to people?
    I think his main motives are based on ego. He always wanted to be Bob Dancer.

    Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie View Post
    As far as arcimedes goes, the math backs him up, but his claims of being able to play VP at +2% earning $100,000 overall at a casino doesn’t seem plausible to me. Wouldn’t a casino have gotten rid of these machines long ago? He seems like such a smart guy, isn’t there anything more productive he could do than to chase down small edges on VP?
    I didn't win it all in one casino. I played in around 15 casinos overall during the 8 years I accumulated those profits. The one you are thinking about (the 2% edge) is the biggest single source of my profits, but that is also the casino where a special method of card pulling works. They are not aware of my profits (verified through casino win/loss statements for the last 3 years).

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie View Post
    These days when I go to a casino, I play for fun. If I win a few hundred dollars that will pay for the tank of gas in my car or a nice meal in a restaurant or for something I saw in the gift shop, I’ll stop. I don’t lose $35000 trying to book a $2500 win, and I don’t play a set number of hours or dollars through a machine trying to maintain a tier level or earn comps. So to answer your question, if I won $500 within 10 minutes playing video poker, I would quit. I would buy some show tickets, or something nice for my children. Winning puts you in a good mood, and I’d like to savour it for as long as possible.
    I am like you. I play for fun, and I always have.
    The math guys maintain that playing on a positive expectation game and then adding in comps and perks and freebies, etc., will give them bigger profits.
    Well, good for them. I don't swallow that.
    Nor do I swallow anyone who says chasing losses to the tune of $35,000 is part of a valid plan to win a million dollars over a ten year period.

    Yes, we should play on the best paytables possible. Yes, we should look for the best comps possible. Yes, we should savor the profits and protect our profits.

    Snake oil comes in various forms. Even the math guys cannot guarantee a win so that makes even "advantage play" a brand of snake oil -- but maybe a better quality snake oil as snake oil brands are ranked.

    If there is anything I want to get across to everyone who comes to this site it is this: gambling is gambling. And don't bet that you'll make a profit at it.

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Snake oil comes in various forms. Even the math guys cannot guarantee a win so that makes even "advantage play" a brand of snake oil -- but maybe a better quality snake oil as snake oil brands are ranked.
    Perhaps it is a matter of perception but it appears to me that few people follow a philosophy that requires them to eek out every penny from their gambling transactions and instead use "advantage play" as a method to maximize their complimentary awards while reducing their probability of losing, the elements of which you also state as being good practices. I find it difficult to directly refute your characterization of that as being "snake oil", but it appears the discrepancy may be more related to how the doctrine is presented than how it is put into practice.

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    If there is anything I want to get across to everyone who comes to this site it is this: gambling is gambling. And don't bet that you'll make a profit at it.
    That is excellent advice. When it comes to gambling "systems" it is always good to remember that while it may be possible to adorn the labia oris of a porcine, at the conclusion it will still be a swine.

  11. #11
    Spock, I don't follow these things very close, but I read VPFREE now and then and it sure does feel that there is a lot of players who follow the snake oil from advantage play as a means to eek out every cent possible. Your second statement I would expect also applies to advantage play.

    Now for the lap-slapping fun part. Arc, as predicted, just couldn't stay away and was reading every post a hundred times. Oh how it must have been eating away at him, haha. So he starts right in by lying about me again, right after doing his best obam administration twist on his own description of done. Funny is not the word.

    Alan, from your post far above about an unreasonable bet, I remember reading that bet I talked about Singer put in the paper and that can be construed as being unreasonble, but for the fact that he opened it up to all the rich guys who were telling fake tales about him. So ok. But I also remember his bet offer on the wizards site and that wasn't a bad deal for either side. I want to understand what you would consider a reasonable bet for Singer to be. Would you want him to play any other way than he does his system? What about the denominations or games he plays? Why don't you come up with one for him that doesn't change anything about his system, or is it impossible? I think that would be interesting.

  12. #12
    When Rob was challenged by the guys on LVA a few months back, I simply told him to accept their challenge -- to go ahead and play in a casino and win with his system. And I would be there to video tape the entire thing. There was no need to put a side bet of thousands of dollars as part of the whole thing. If Rob was confident he would win, he should have gone in there are won the money from the casino and showed his LVA critics that his system works.

    Instead he demanded the side bet.

    As a result, Rob never got the chance to finally prove his system to the people on LVA, to his harshest critics, and to the world. So Rob lost his chance.

    He will forever be remembered as the guy who won't accept a challenge to prove a system that most people call unworkable or a fantasy.

    Rob said he wanted to punish his critics? Instead he punished himself. That's what I told him, and I stand by it.

    Rob could have walked up to a game, played his system with increasing denominations, hit his win goal and won it all -- the bet, the respect, and shut his critics up -- all at once.

  13. #13
    Rob did the percentage thing, assuming what he presents isn't really what he believes.

    The fact he didn't take Alan up on his offer suggests Rob's not self-deluded. It suggests instead that Arci's characterization is more likely to be correct.

  14. #14
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    When Rob was challenged by the guys on LVA a few months back, I simply told him to accept their challenge -- to go ahead and play in a casino and win with his system. And I would be there to video tape the entire thing. There was no need to put a side bet of thousands of dollars as part of the whole thing. If Rob was confident he would win, he should have gone in there are won the money from the casino and showed his LVA critics that his system works.

    Instead he demanded the side bet.

    As a result, Rob never got the chance to finally prove his system to the people on LVA, to his harshest critics, and to the world. So Rob lost his chance.

    He will forever be remembered as the guy who won't accept a challenge to prove a system that most people call unworkable or a fantasy.

    Rob said he wanted to punish his critics? Instead he punished himself. That's what I told him, and I stand by it.

    Rob could have walked up to a game, played his system with increasing denominations, hit his win goal and won it all -- the bet, the respect, and shut his critics up -- all at once.
    I see a possible contradiction here and in what redietz just wrote, and I remember it from the LV A discussion and from memory of the Arc criticizing. Alan you say all Singer had to do was bring a haul of cash to risk in front of his critics and when he won the session of his single play they'd have shut up. Well in fact I've seen him offer to do that with a relatively small bet with the wizardof odz and maybe a few of his friends. But once he opts in they came back and said the same thing I've seen Arc and others say for several years at least, that with his system it's very easy to win a session which is $2500 and only a fool would bet on him doing it, and only a fool would shut up as you say because one session doesn't mean squat. Then they walk. So what would it prove anyhow? Even I know that his winning wouldn't mean a hell of a lot unless he won 20 out of 25 or something like that.

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by jatki View Post
    Well in fact I've seen him offer to do that with a relatively small bet with the wizardof odz and maybe a few of his friends.
    Well golly gee, you sure seem to know a lot about the things Singer has done. It's almost like you were there.

  16. #16
    Jatki, I wish you would clear this up: I know you and Rob talk, and that you are in very close proximity to each other, so when you post here, please separate your own thoughts from the thoughts you are relaying from Rob.

    And tell Rob it's okay for him to post on his own. Perhaps it would be better if he did his own talking?

  17. #17
    Alan, I'm just telling you what I know from my experiences and interest in what Singer has said and done. I was a member on the wizardof odz when Singer posted there before he got banned and I relayed what I saw go down. Did you happen to read that forum then too? Just like I am a current member of videopoker.com and LV A and am able to offer insight on what I've seen on those forums. I haven't talked to Rob in a while and I sure wish he'd get here soon so he'd be able to better say what I've been trying to relay.

  18. #18
    Well, all I can say is I'm real glad jatki now remembers on a day-to-day basis whether he's met Rob. It's not that I'm a distrustful soul -- I just have a tough time when somebody remembers details of this interaction or that one with someone -- and a few weeks back didn't remember actually meeting the dude in question.

    I'd say jatki's credibility is the same as Blutarsky's GPA.

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by jatki View Post
    Alan, I'm just telling you what I know from my experiences and interest in what Singer has said and done. I was a member on the wizardof odz when Singer posted there before he got banned and I relayed what I saw go down. Did you happen to read that forum then too? Just like I am a current member of videopoker.com and LV A and am able to offer insight on what I've seen on those forums. I haven't talked to Rob in a while and I sure wish he'd get here soon so he'd be able to better say what I've been trying to relay.
    Alan and I both post at Wizard of Vegas. What's your username over there?

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Well, all I can say is I'm real glad jatki now remembers on a day-to-day basis whether he's met Rob. It's not that I'm a distrustful soul -- I just have a tough time when somebody remembers details of this interaction or that one with someone -- and a few weeks back didn't remember actually meeting the dude in question.

    I'd say jatki's credibility is the same as Blutarsky's GPA.
    Blutarsky's GPA >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Jatki's & Singer's credibility combined.

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