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Thread: The "luck factor" in dice "control."

  1. #1
    I can't believe I just read this from Frank Scoblete, one of the leaders of "dice control."

    His latest article online is about the "luck factor" in dice control.

    Here's the link: http://scoblete.casinocitytimes.com/...-control-61207

    I'll cut to the chase: even with a "perfect throw" the bad number 7 will still show up, and it could show up 17% of the time. And with a non-perfect throw that bad number 7 will still show up and it could show up 17% of the time.

    The fact is, one out of 6 combinations on two dice adds up to 16.6666% or, rounding it out, 17% of what you will see.

    Now, I happen to believe that dice control is possible. But it's just that I've never seen any proof that anyone can deliver two dice on a craps table with enough "control" or "influence" to be able to claim that they have any extraordinary ability to influence or control the dice.

    I think it's okay to try to influence the dice. I even think that it's okay to pay someone for a lesson about what is needed for dice control. But I will not invest in anyone who says they are going to take my money to a craps table and bet it on their "controlled throws" and promise me I'll make a profit.

    The bottom line is simply this: dice is a random game, so trying to influence the dice or control the dice can't hurt. It might not help, but it can't hurt.

    I have been with many people who tried to influence the dice or tried to control the dice and some of them have had good rolls. Heaven knows I've tried to control or influence the dice. But the longest, best, most money-winning rolls I've ever seen came from "random shooters" who picked up the two dice and let them fly. And I guess they just had more luck than the other guys had.

  2. #2
    That article isn't exactly a ringing endorsement for dice control. It's more of a testament putting the crap into his Golden Touch Craps spiel.

  3. #3
    Vegas Vic you are right about that -- it's not an endorsement for dice control, and recently, Scoblete seems to be backing off the heavy promotion of dice control and talking more about such things as the math of the game of craps. I wonder if the "dice control rage" has run its course? There are still advocates of it, but I just don't see the heavy promotion that I used to see. Perhaps, it's a sign of the economy, or waning interest, or frustration that no one has really proved what it is supposed to accomplish?

  4. #4
    Alan--as I have mentioned, I am a believer in dice control. Of course, that doesn't guaranty a good roll. But when in the groove I have had some memorable rolls. Like 18 8's at the Flamingo. I tend to almost black out during the roll with no awareness of surroundings.

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    I am a believer in dice control. Of course, that doesn't guaranty a good roll. But when in the groove I have had some memorable rolls. Like 18 8's at the Flamingo. I tend to almost black out during the roll with no awareness of surroundings.
    I am also a believer in the theory of it and I am hoping that one day a true dice controller will prove that the skill exists. But an intermittent success rate does not prove anyone's ability. Major league fast ball pitchers can routinely throw 96 mph pitches so they have the skill of throwing a fast ball. Major league curve ball pitchers can routinely throw curves, or sinkers, sliders, and knuckleballs.

    But so far NO ONE claiming to be a dice influencer or controller has ever shown a consistent and reliable pattern.

    Don't take this as a personal attack, regnis, but even "random shooters" have had incredible rolls. I was at a craps table at Caesars when a random shooter threw 18 yos in a row. All he did was pick up the dice and heaved them down the table. There was no setting, no controlled throw, no artful bounce. 18 yo's in a row. Ironically NO ONE at the table had a bet on the yo for those 18 in a row.

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Alan--as I have mentioned, I am a believer in dice control. Of course, that doesn't guaranty a good roll. But when in the groove I have had some memorable rolls. Like 18 8's at the Flamingo. I tend to almost black out during the roll with no awareness of surroundings.
    When "not in the groove", it's deemed to be bad luck that caused it and seldom is it called lack of dice control. Why does a streak of good rolls suddenly become a the result of thrower skill and not good luck? BTW, I might prefer to black out during bad rolls. The good ones should be enjoyed.

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    18 yo's in a row. Ironically NO ONE at the table had a bet on the yo for those 18 in a row.
    WHAAAA!?!?! After the third yo it wouldn't hurt to throw 5 at it! Haha.

    I try to attempt a controlled throw. I have had good rolls and bad rolls. My best roll was when I hit the 6 point FireBet at Caesars for 10,000 during fathers day weekend. However, this June at Paris a random roller hit all 6 for the FireBet...I only had a buck on it that time though.

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by JamieV View Post
    My best roll was when I hit the 6 point FireBet at Caesars for 10,000 during fathers day weekend.
    I was at Caesars during this past Father's Day weekend and the Fire Bet for all 6 was hit twice at the same table-- just a short time apart. JamieV, was one of those yours? The table was the one closest to the Pai Gow tables?

  9. #9
    Hey Alan

    I hit all 6 points on Saturday night of Fathers Day Weekend at the front table near the entrance. It is the only table facing North/South (parralel to the strip) while the others face East/West. However, when I came back to Caesars in August, the felt on that table wasn't the same.

    I am sure you have noticed that almost all of the tables at Caesars have a hard surface; except for on table that has a soft and bouncy surface.

  10. #10
    JamieV I was told that at one of the tables all 6-fires were hit at the same table about an hour apart. Did someone else also throw all six while you were there? I also asked this on the Wizard of Vegas site in their craps forum.

    Caesars regularly changes the felts on all the tables. I don't think the felt was changed to make the table more averse to dice control. I think new felts just tend to have a different bounce than felts that have been in use for a while. We were there one night about 8 years ago when they did it about 3-AM and the carpenter changing the felt gave it to my son (who later sold it on eBay). My experience has been that all tables at all casinos have different, unique bounces. Personally I prefer the tables that run along the main walkway under the dome.

    By the way, Caesars is one of those casinos that does not have a wire under the middle of the table to block a dice slide. When the LVRJ interviewed me about dice sliding regarding the Wynn case I was quoted in the article how I saw a slide at Caesars that wasn't called as a no-roll. The "slider" pulled it off because there was no wire. Sam's Town has a large wire in the center of its tables which literally lifts the felt up. If you ever are there at Sam's Town it's pretty obvious.

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I am also a believer in the theory of it and I am hoping that one day a true dice controller will prove that the skill exists. But an intermittent success rate does not prove anyone's ability. Major league fast ball pitchers can routinely throw 96 mph pitches so they have the skill of throwing a fast ball. Major league curve ball pitchers can routinely throw curves, or sinkers, sliders, and knuckleballs.

    But so far NO ONE claiming to be a dice influencer or controller has ever shown a consistent and reliable pattern.

    Don't take this as a personal attack, regnis, but even "random shooters" have had incredible rolls. I was at a craps table at Caesars when a random shooter threw 18 yos in a row. All he did was pick up the dice and heaved them down the table. There was no setting, no controlled throw, no artful bounce. 18 yo's in a row. Ironically NO ONE at the table had a bet on the yo for those 18 in a row.
    No offense taken Alan. You had to see it over extended periods.

    In those days when I played every day, I often repeated those rolls for 3 days. One casino tried to enact a "no setting the dice" rule on me and I picked up my $$ and left. There are plenty of casinos. There were others that picked up on what was happening and they would all pass the dice to me. Again, I'm not making Singer like claims. I of course had ups and downs. But I'm talking rolls of 1:15, 1:40, and dozens of rolls over 30 minutes in a 3 day trip. I also reiterate that I can't do it now as I rarely play and have no feel for or confidence in my stroke.

  12. #12
    Hi Alan

    I didn't see or hear about a 6 point firebet prior to mine. However, before I threw my 6 point firebet. The four previous shooters went as follows:

    1st- 4 Point
    2nd- 5 Point
    3rd- 4 Point
    4th- 4 Point
    Me- 6 Point

    The table was dumping!! My 6 Point was fairly fast...I estimate between 30-40 rolls at the most.

  13. #13
    JamieV did you stick around after your six-pointer? I wonder if you left and another six pointer followed you? Or, if another table had two six pointers. Your table was not the one that the dealers told me had the two six-pointers. I would not rule out three six-pointers hitting that weekend as the tables were full and it was darn busy.

    I hit five of six on August 4th.

  14. #14
    Over on WizardofVegas.com I am involved in a heated discussion about whether or not dice control and dice influencing really exists. As part of that discussion I laid out what is the standard for true dice control and dice influencing which is what the "dice toss" is supposed to be. Here are the elements of what is needed for a controlled toss:

    1. a simultaneous release of two dice, gripped with the faces aligned perfectly
    2. a soft, even toss so that both dice hit a predetermined spot on the table
    3. both dice bounce of the table and lightly roll to the center of the back wall
    4. both dice lightly hit and bounce of the center of the back wall
    5. both dice remain on axis with the dice faces not rotating out of their set during the entire toss and roll
    6. both dice come to rest on a desired result which can be one of many numbers

    Dice control and dice influencing is not expected to hit a particular number on demand, but to demonstrate true dice control you must be able to actually control the movements of the dice.

    This was written in much more detail in Sharpshooter's book on dice influencing and dice control.

  15. #15
    Alan-correct me I'm wrong, but even the "golden Touch" (Scoblete) school of dice control only claim to be able to alter the number of sevens by a very small amount. In other words, the seven should show 1 out of 6---they only claim a small percentage difference despite all the hype.

    My personal experience was that I hit an abnormally high number of 8's and 10's and bet accordingly.

  16. #16
    Yes, that's what the dice influencers and dice controllers say they do "in the end." But the entire strategy of their game is based on the skill of a particular style and form of throw.

    In reality, a random shooter can have the same or better results than a dice controller. So that makes us return to the basic question: are they really throwing the dice the way they are supposed to, with the correct form and style? And the answer is NO ONE has ever done it on a consistent basis.

    So that brings us back to reality. The reality is random shooters can have as good or better results than dice controllers, and dice controllers cannot perform on a consistent basis what they set out to do.

    Bottom line: dice control does not exist. We hope someone will come along someday, but to date no one has. We have all seen great shooters with great form and style, but we don't know of anyone who can do it consistently.

  17. #17
    Not sure I agree. And not that it proves anything because casinos are paranoid anyway. But here in Illinois, they have either changed the cushions or tables so that there is too much bounce to even try to use dice control, and/or they have shortened the distance between the wall and the pass line so that you almost have to hit the chips for the odds bet behind the line. Again, they are paranoid and the fact that they took these measures doesnt mean they had a legitimate concern about dice control. But in the past they just used to laugh at the concept.

    The only casino here in Chicago that still has a table on which you could effectively control the dice, or at least attempt to, barred me from setting the dice so that I could not do so. A couple of the sticks tried to work with me and push the dice to me on my desired set, but they got in trouble and that ended that. After I stopped playing there, they relaxed that rule but I now only play VP there.

  18. #18

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by Vegas Vic View Post
    He's back with more war stories:

    http://scoblete.casinocitytimes.com/
    Yes, the legedary Capation, who apparently lives only in the mind and pages of FS. I remember going to one of the early gatherings of would-be DCers in Vegas more than a decade ago when there were rumors that for the first time the Captain would show himself and identify himself. Guess what happened?

  20. #20

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