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Thread: More success for Bob Dancer losing $21,000.

  1. #1
    I have to hand it to Bob Dancer, he doesn't pull any punches including when he gets punched in the face by a promotion that goes bad.

    He just wrapped up a two-part report on LVA explaining his good play gone wrong and lost $21,000.

    But that's okay, it was a good play.

    http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2012/1023.cfm

    Ya know, it doesn't matter if you win or lose, just if you had a good play, or a good bet, or....

  2. #2
    Technically, it was a 14K loss when you figure in cashback and such.

    The most troubling aspect to this storyline, if you're a Dancer fan (and I'm not), is that we're supposed to take his word for it that the hold on those slots was roughly 4%. Now maybe he had inside info from the casino, or the floor personnel, or the manufacturer who supplied those machines to that casino, but how the hell do you guess that it's a 4% hold and base your 100K in play on that? Turned out it was holding 14% without big jackpots. I have to assume he had inside info to make that "assumption."

    Other troubling aspects -- while it's true that playing the occasional slot will improve your mailers, this really breaks a barrier in his recommendations to readers. Many readers will have an excuse now to try to play slots, and will assume similar 4% holds, based on the "it's a good play" speculation. Who benefits? The folks who usually benefit most from Dancer writing will benefit, and that would be South Point and other casinos.

    I'm surprised he wrote this for publication. I'm surprised LVA published these blog entries. They must clearly be in South Point's corner. I like South Point -- they don't need any help.

  3. #3
    It was $21,000. You have to add in day #2 to get the total. He used the "free play" during the promotion so there is nothing left. His slot club "value" of about $3,800 I don't think counts as cash but is "comps." Perhaps he could use that for food, gifts, etc. but even if you want to convert that into a "cash value" he still has a net loss of about $17,000.

    But how much do you actually value casino comps to be worth as a cash value??

    You must think, also, that Dancer is also in South Point's "corner." Doesn't he teach classes there? Does he get rebates on losses that he doesn't tell anyone about? Is he paid to play there? In other words, is he a "house player" or shill?

    This reminds me too much about the Car at the Palms fiasco. Frankly it undermines his credibility.

    About the 4% hold: See http://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/nv_slot_hold.pdf and the average hold is 6% so assuming a 4% hold for the higher limit slots is reasonable.

  4. #4
    I don't think assuming something that may be off 2% or 3% or 4% is reasonable at all. That's like saying I'll bet the Patriots, and I'll find out after the game whether I've laid 6 or 7 or 10.

    If he absolutely knew the hold was 4% and absolutely knew the spin return, that's one thing -- that doesn't undermine credibility at all, regardless of result. But what he did was really shill material.

  5. #5
    I think the guy is very transparent and honest. 4% for high limit slots is very reasonable, especially at a place like south point that is looser than most. I don't believe he would play that much cash unless he was very confident in the numbers....

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by bigfoot66 View Post
    I don't believe he would play that much cash unless he was very confident in the numbers....
    I'm sure he was confident in the "numbers" but the point is that being confident in the "numbers" doesn't mean you are going to come out ahead. Now here is a guy who is the ultimate "advantage player" and look at what happened to him. He wouldn't play a video poker game with a 96% return plus comps and cash back. Why would he play a slot with a 96% return plus comps and free play? At least with a video poker machine some of the decision making is in your control.

  7. #7
    Okay, guys, let me spell this out. There is no real way to be "confident of the numbers" unless you have an info pipeline with management and know who set those slots at what percentage hold.

    Anybody who's "not Bob Dancer" doesn't have that in. That's why this article sets a bad precedent for readers. Dancer doesn't spell out how he "knows" what the hold is and he shouldn't. But he also shouldn't write about it if he's going to skip that piece of critical information, because when he does, readers will assume that they can also "assume" holds of 4% for similar games, and they can't. You need the inside info. You can't guesstimate when you're going to plow 100K through a machine.

    Those holds could have just as easily been 6% or 8%.

  8. #8
    Redietz, your point is that unlike video poker, traditional slots do not have paybacks that are transparent. Therefore, there is a big hole in Dancer's plan unless he knew from casino personnel what the programmed hold was on the particular slot machines he was playing.

    This is a valid criticism.

    We know that two slot machines sitting side by side in a section with signage that says "up to 99% payback" may not both have the same payback.

    So not only did Dancer lose $21k but his strategy was flawed as well?
    Last edited by Alan Mendelson; 10-25-2012 at 01:01 PM.

  9. #9
    What I'm thinking is that he somehow did get the alleged hold percentage from someone inside, but he wasn't going to say that to his readers, so he just said he guessitmated it correctly, which is nonsense. What I think is bad is that his readers will be tempted to guesstimate in the same way, and all that does is pad South Point's coffers.

  10. #10
    redietz I think your points are valid, but I don't think "inside info" is required for what he did. Even if the machine didn't have a 4% hold, a high limit slot probably was close to 4%. But being totally realistic, there are video poker players who play games with less than a 0.5% hold who still can lose that much money -- and do.

    I think the big point that everyone should consider here is simply this: putting all of the math theory aside, and putting aside all of the theoretical returns, it is all a gamble -- period.

    Dancer has proven that several times now, first with his disaster about winning a car at the Palms and now with his failure at South Point. It's gambling folks. You cannot count on theoretical holds, theoretical returns or theoretical anything to make you win. We all can't be "super players" like Arc who can sit at a machine, figure the theoretical, and get the theoretical as he does.

  11. #11
    Bob Dancer's article has been questioned a handful of times by posters on VPFREE, and like Mr. Obama stays away from the tough questions everyone wants answers to about Libya, he ignores anything that might produce an answer on his failed promotion play. None of it adds up except his big losses. I personally don't understand how a vp player who finds small edges as he says, can hope or expect to beat a slot machine. I also don't understand how a mature man can stay awake for so many hours pushing buttons with no choices to make as he goes. I have no wonder that his poor wife scolded him as he says she did. How much gambling can this guy take. I don't buy the arc crap about how he supposedly wins other things and wins at years end. If he loses on this short play then he can and does lose on all or most other short plays. Adding them up still makes him a loser and it all doesn't magically turn into winning because of theory. Ask Southpoint about their theoretical hold on this slot promotion. As Singer says, that's why he still works and sells and teaches for a buck.

  12. #12
    Welcome back, Rob. chuckle, chuckle.

  13. #13
    Alan do you think Dancer would object to anything you have said? It seems to me that you agree with everything the article says but think it was a bad play because he lost $20k. If the man's bankroll is $500,000 (I am making this number up, but he won $1,000,000 several years ago and has been winning ever since more or less so it is a reasonable figure) then he lost 4% of his stack on a play. This is hardly big news or even particularly troubling. I don't understand what your point is Alan, unless you are just trying to point out that it is possible to lose money despite the fact that you have the best of it (a statement I agree with).

  14. #14
    bigfeet is logic your strong point? Because if it is then you're in another universe than me because you lost me. If the man's bankroll really is $500,000, then he's the dumbest guy in the world for attempting to multiply it on something like videopoker or those slots instead of in the real world of investments. I read where he won one million dollars too but you say he more or less has been winning every year since. Can you define that and show me where or how you know that please? On videopoker.com he's always touting about his jobs as teacher, broadcaster, salesman and speaker. He also keeps harping about his age being up there in one way or another. This doesn't sound to me like someone with more cash than a cow to be throwing around casinos.

    Just sayin'

  15. #15
    bigfoot... I just wanted to point out that with all the "figuring" he did he did lose $20k. It has no bearing on his bankroll. The point is even though the math and whatever else he figured, it didn't work. That was my point.

    Frankly, if he does have a half million dollars, as jatki points out, there are better "gambles" than playing video poker. If the "advantage" is one percent or two percent playing VP, he can get more than that with returns on various insured bonds and some quality stocks. If he wanted to go for bigger returns and still have some security, he could try selling covered calls.

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by jatki View Post
    bigfeet is logic your strong point? Because if it is then you're in another universe than me because you lost me. If the man's bankroll really is $500,000, then he's the dumbest guy in the world for attempting to multiply it on something like videopoker or those slots instead of in the real world of investments. I read where he won one million dollars too but you say he more or less has been winning every year since. Can you define that and show me where or how you know that please? On videopoker.com he's always touting about his jobs as teacher, broadcaster, salesman and speaker. He also keeps harping about his age being up there in one way or another. This doesn't sound to me like someone with more cash than a cow to be throwing around casinos.

    Just sayin'
    huh? Rob you been drinkin'?

  17. #17
    I have one question about Dancer's radio show: does he pay for the airtime (infomercial) or is he paid, or is it a swap of his services for free air time??
    About two years ago I did a one hour talk show on KABC Radio here in LA -- and even though it was "paid infomercial time" they gave it to me for free in exchange for me giving them a quality program. Dancer might have the same deal. If so, it's a great deal for him because he reaches his audience, can promote his business and his clients. Plus the show is on the Internet so he can reach a world-wide audience. Even I have listened to his show on the web.

  18. #18
    Alan/Rob, a bankroll does not sit in a drawer in the kitchen. In my case it is all invested except for a small amount used for regular gambling. Might have to dip into it once in awhile but many investment accounts allow that. I assume Bob does about the same.

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Alan/Rob, a bankroll does not sit in a drawer in the kitchen. In my case it is all invested except for a small amount used for regular gambling. Might have to dip into it once in awhile but many investment accounts allow that. I assume Bob does about the same.
    For your own good, you had better decide what is your bankroll for gaming and what money is set aside for living expenses and investing. A gaming bankroll cannot be both. You cannot have part of a gaming bankroll used for "investments" or else you are fooling yourself.

  20. #20
    I'm starting to like being accused of being Singer. Means his critics are listening to me and it's having an impact.
    I have to admit I don't keep a distinct gambling bank roll, but then again I'm no big deal in that business. I don't believe Dancer truly does have one either and instead relies on whatever amount of income he realizes from his business. If a big check comes in that corresponds to an upcoming promotion he is mesmerized by, he'll go for it. It just doesn't make any sense to put $500,000 into the videopoker machines as an investment opportunity, and it makes even less sense to assert he does that. Arc just really confused by his post here. He's using investments to play quarters? Really?

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