Was I wrong to fold KK tonight?

[Alan Mendelson]

Last night I bought into a $100 no limit game at Hollywood Park. I cashed out $320 so I had a decent night. But one of my "folds" troubles me because the player I folded to later busted out on a bluff.

I am in early position. Big Blind is $3 and the table is relatively tight at this point, but I am the short stack. This table had been going awhile and some of the players had $600 to $800 in front of them. I just had, at this point, about $130.

I get my hole cards and I have pocket kings, and that's a damn good starting hand as we all know. I raise to $9 which is 3X the big blind and I get one caller. Everyone else folds.

The flop comes 10-5-2 and since I am first to act I bet $5 as a feeler bet hoping that the other player would raise and I would come over the top with an all-in. But he just calls. On the turn there is another ten. And that makes me very worried. The other player easily could have called my initial raise with Ace-ten or King-ten or Queen-ten so now I am on the defensive.

So I bet $5 again and he goes all-in. I folded my kings. He might have been bluffing. Or maybe he had it.

I think I played the hand incorrectly:

1. I should have made a bigger raise pre flop and I might have eliminated all callers and just have gotten the blinds. Better to get the blinds than to lose money.

2. On the flop with only one ten showing, I should have pushed then and taken my chances.

How would you have played KK in early position as a short stack, and was I wrong to fold my KK ??

[arcimede$]

Where's all that poker skill you mentioned before. Shouldn't you have known whether this dude was bluffing? If he wasn't, then folding was smart.

[Alan Mendelson]

I was discussing this hand with another poker player today who asked me this:

1. If the other player had raised "all in" pre flop would you have called? My answer: yes. I would have given it a shot since I know may players will push pre flop with any pair including 22, 33 and the very obvious JJ.

2. If you would go all in pre flop why wouldn't you call with KK when there are two tens on the board? (He says I should have called his all-in.) My answer: because the chances that my KK was the better (best) hand diminished by the paired board.

[arcimede$]

It didn't diminish that much. It's very possible the other guy had a pair also and it probably didn't beat the kings. The odds were in your favor. Unless you had some "other" reason to fold it was a bad mathematical play.

[Alan Mendelson]

Unless you had some "other" reason to fold

Ahh, Arc. For a guy who has never played Texas Hold'em you just brought up a critical point for the game! There are reasons to fold hands that you think win. Folding "winners" is not something you want to do very often, but sometimes you do.

Having two red aces in your hand and the flop comes 7, 8, 9 of spades and three other players are in the hand and betting is an example of when you throw away those two red aces.

This is a true story and happened about four years ago: I'm at a very active table and I am dealt AA. The big blind is $5 and I am first to act after the BB and I raise to $25 which is a good bet for AA. The next player to act raises to $50. And the next two players after him call that $50. Should I also call? Heck no! I go all in. And the next three players also go all in. We show our cards. I have AA. The player who raised shows KK. And the next two players both show AK unsuited. I look at the pot and I say "it's all mine."

Well, not so fast. All that action was preflop. With everyone all in, the dealer puts out the five cards for the board. And the dealer puts out a 7-high straight. It's a four way chop.

My point? The math said I should have won the whole pot. Instead it was a chop. It could have been worse. One of the players with AK could have been suited and made a flush with the 7-high straight. And that takes me back to the point that sometimes you fold what you think is a winner.

Clearly I had the advantage preflop with AA. But it is very common for players to play A-10, K-10, Q-10 and J-Ten and after the turn card (when the second ten appeared on the board) anyone of those starting hands beat my AA. The other player also could have been playing 10-10, 9-10, 8-10 which are also popular starting hands. And he also could have had another pocket pair and flopped a set and the turn gave him a full house.

I started this thread asking if I made the right fold because later this same player got caught on a bluff. This made me wonder if he was bluffing when I had KK. Did he think my small bets indicated weakness? Perhaps that's what was really going on because I was at a table with big stacks who bet big. But my style with a strong hand is to allow players to bet into me so I can win more.

Mike Caro says slow playing AA is the way to make the most money with them, even though it opens the door to having them cracked more often. In fact the math says you should slow play your Aces because it is the strongest hand in the deck period. But many players don't want to risk seeing their aces cracked so they go against the math and try to force out or limit their competition with a big starting bet.

There was another reason to fold. Remember I am the short stack at a table where the average player had $600-800. I had $130. At this point I only had $19 "invested" in my KK without a "lock" that I would win. I was faced with an all in without having a set myself and looking at the possibility that the other player not only had a set but also a full house.

Frankly, if my stack was smaller I would have called. But the more chips you have the less likely you are to risk them unless you know for sure you have the nuts. At this point I still had my original $100 buy in and even after losing $19 still had a small profit.

Actually, the discussion should be more about what I did preflop and on the flop than about folding after the turn card hit. If he was playing A-10 and a ten came on the flop, would he have called a big bet pre flop or a big bet on the flop? The question then is how would risk or protect his big stack?

[bigfoot66]

I woulda called. The fact that another 10 came makes it less likely that he had a 10. But then Im not a very good poker player.

[Alan Mendelson]

I woulda called. The fact that another 10 came makes it less likely that he had a 10.

You're probably right. And if I had to do it over I would have raised pre-flop with more than 3X the BB and limited my callers to the really "strong hands" or players who thought they were strong, or if no callers, just been happy taking the blinds.

The other way to look at it is this: I lost that particular battle, but won the war leaving with a nice win for the night.

There is something else that I have to mention. When I first started to play live poker, which was only about five years ago, I played every morning with a bunch of "TV guys" over at Hollywood Park. There were a couple of producers, a couple of writers, a cameraman, a director... and these guys were a friendly bunch since we were all in the business. It was not a cut-throat game, and because it wasn't a cut-throat game we talked about playing and strategy. And one of the best tips I ever picked up came from one of the producers who was probably the most successful player of the bunch. And he told me, "winners also fold."

Think about that: "winners also fold." It really is something to remember. Because you can lose a battle (one hand) but come back to win the war.

[arcimede$]

No one has the advantage every hand. Hence, winners fold quite often. However, this is a discussion about ONE HAND. In this particular hand you most likely had the mathematical advantage, you had no particular reason to believe anyone else had something special, and you caved due to fear.

If you find yourself folding in situations like these you are either playing at too high of a denomination or you simply don't understand the mathematics at play.

[Alan Mendelson]

Arc, mathematically I only had the advantage pre flop -- before any other cards came on the table. As soon as the flop hit, my advantage dropped dramatically, and I would lose to any set, or two pair. And pre-flop I was losing to AA. As every poker player knows: the hand isn't won until all five cards hit the board.

You are looking at poker from only one dimension -- that is the math and your own hand -- which is what you do in video poker. But it's not having a strong hand that wins in poker -- it's having the strongest hand that beats the other strong hands at the table. You really should try playing, it will give you a new perspective.