Page 7 of 7 FirstFirst ... 34567
Results 121 to 131 of 131

Thread: Did I Miss Something? Where's Rob's Full Strategy?

  1. #121
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I can't answer for Rob, but you asked me about craps, and I can respond:

    I am a green chip player, so I bet the passline with $25 and FULL odds. At Caesars, that's 3x 4x 5x odds. These have the lowest house advantage -- but not necessarily the best chance to win. And there is a difference. With full odds on the 4 or ten you have the lowest house advantage, but the chance of winning is slimmer than if the "point" is the six or eight.

    You ask about the horn and other high house-edge bets. No, not my style. I do make a $5 horn-high-ace-deuce bet on the come-out roll to "insure" my $25 pass line bet in case there is a craps rolled. And I sometimes will bet $5 on the horn high-yo on the "second roll" out of a craps superstition about the "second roll yo," but I am a conservative bettor who bets the numbers, avoids the fields, the hardways, and the "middle bets." And when I press, I press the numbers from the inside moving out.

    I do make the firebet when available -- because that is, at most casinos, the only "jackpot bonus" bet available for craps. Otherwise in craps you have to bet big to win big. It is much different from VP where a $5 bet can win a $4,000 royal.
    Thanks Alan for your response.

    But given what Rob is advocating...moving up in stakes to try for the bigger win to wipe out previous losses, why wouldn't you just start betting big on the 30 to 1 payoff for 12 or 2? Sure it's not the 800 to 1 payoff a $5 bet in VP pays you, but it comes in a lot more frequently. I think you know that spreading $200 over the hardways and the horn bet on every roll would bust you fairly quickly because the house edge on those bets is exhorbitant. Continually placing those bets is a losing proposition and it would grind you down eventually. Wouldn't this same logic apply to less than optimal plays in VP? You could hit the cards you need, but you would eventually be ground down.

    Why doesn't someone run a million hand simulation (using the same hand each time) on one of Rob's special plays versus a the mathematically correct hold? Wouldn't the final totals of Rob's play versus the correct play resolve this once and for all?

  2. #122
    Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie View Post
    But given what Rob is advocating...moving up in stakes to try for the bigger win to wipe out previous losses, why wouldn't you just start betting big on the 30 to 1 payoff for 12 or 2?
    Whoa!! Why are you asking me this?? I don't play Rob's progression system!!! And I even asked him why he bothers to play at dollars when his "win goal" is $2500. I asked him why he just didn't start at $10 ??

    Please, ask Rob.

    And regarding craps: A few months ago I was at Caesars where a player was betting $100 on the 12 for 30 rolls in a row. That's $3-thosuand dollars bet -- and the 12 never hit. He gave up after 30 tries.

    Well, I was the next shooter -- and wouldn't you know it... out of my first three rolls, two were boxcars.

  3. #123
    a2a--please understand that in VP, even on a bad game, Rob is giving up a house edge of a point or 2. Betting on the 12, there is a house edge of 11.11% @ 31-1 odds, or almost 14% at 30-1 odds.

    Plus, Rob is looking to make a hit of several thousand at the higher level; not 30 dollars.

  4. #124
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I asked this same question ages ago. Rob ignored it. Alan ignored it.

    I think Rob will argue that, even though denomination moves and win goals can be used with all gambling endeavors, Rob's "special plays" are video poker specific, therefore video poker is its own thing. I think that's one reason special plays exist.

    The other big observation is that, since casinos are -- in essence -- advantage players, and it's obvious they win, then one cannot say that advantage play loses.
    What did you ask me redietz, and was I here to respond?

    The reason AP's lose without continued extraordinary good luck--and why casinos do not lose as so-called "advantage players" has only to do with the absolute perfection casinos play under along with the massive amount of play into the so-called long term they get.

  5. #125
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    a2a--please understand that in VP, even on a bad game, Rob is giving up a house edge of a point or 2. Betting on the 12, there is a house edge of 11.11% @ 31-1 odds, or almost 14% at 30-1 odds.

    Plus, Rob is looking to make a hit of several thousand at the higher level; not 30 dollars.
    regnis,

    A $25 bet on 12 (if it hit) would pay $750. It's not thousands of dollars but still more likely to come in than 4 of a kind or a Royal Flush on a $5 VP machine.

    I don' t know if you are a Rob supporter or not, but he said his system could consistently beat any negative EV game and result in a net profit over time. That means he is not giving up a 1 or 2 percent edge to the casino.

    If my reading comprehension is correct, Rob made his million by:

    1. Using special plays 5% of the time.
    2. Setting win and loss limits.
    3. Recognizing when a machine was in a cold cycle and changing machines
    4. Moving up in limits when losses mounted.
    5. Not tipping casino service staff.
    6. Getting consistently lucky.

    Is that really all it takes?

  6. #126
    Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie View Post
    regnis,

    A $25 bet on 12 (if it hit) would pay $750. It's not thousands of dollars but still more likely to come in than 4 of a kind or a Royal Flush on a $5 VP machine.

    I don' t know if you are a Rob supporter or not, but he said his system could consistently beat any negative EV game and result in a net profit over time. That means he is not giving up a 1 or 2 percent edge to the casino.

    If my reading comprehension is correct, Rob made his million by:

    1. Using special plays 5% of the time.
    2. Setting win and loss limits.
    3. Recognizing when a machine was in a cold cycle and changing machines
    4. Moving up in limits when losses mounted.
    5. Not tipping casino service staff.
    6. Getting consistently lucky.

    Is that really all it takes?
    An over-simplification at best. You forgot the two most important parts: the required bankroll, and always doing what you said you would do before sitting down.

    Getting lucky consistently: sometimes that means one big hit and sometimes it means a series of not-so-big hits--not unlike what almost every player experiences in 85% or more of their sessions.

  7. #127
    Note that, once again, Singer ignores the comparison to slot machines. If it works for VP there's no reason it wouldn't work for regular slot machines.

  8. #128
    Arci, there are no special plays for slot machines. That's why it can't work for slot machines.

    I think Rob had this angle covered from the beginning.

  9. #129
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Arci, there are no special plays for slot machines. That's why it can't work for slot machines.

    I think Rob had this angle covered from the beginning.
    If that is the case, then the only argument to support is system is the "special plays". I think most people can recognize they are nothing but the magical elixir you'd see in old time cons. In reality, one could argue that every spin on a slot machine is a 'special play' since the odds are low and there is a chance at a big win.

  10. #130
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    No, it implies using deceitful claims. Show me one law that uses the word "scam". For example, see the use of the word "legal" here when referring to scams:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf...ant-jimmy-carr

    It's so humorous to see you trying to cover your a** all the time. And yet here you are giving his deceitful actions support. Instead of worrying about the use of a word you should clean up your own act.
    I wonder if Alan is some kind of distant cousin to the Lord Mandelson in Arci's article

  11. #131
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Note that, once again, Singer ignores the comparison to slot machines. If it works for VP there's no reason it wouldn't work for regular slot machines.
    And it does! My wife loves the penny machines and once in a while I take her for her special day. I usually start at 50 X 1 credits (50 cents-why do the call them penny machines?) for 10 hands. If the machines shows a positive trend (at least TRIES to give some credits) I usually play at 50 X 2 credits on the NEXT 10 hands. It gives us a good chance at bigger hands and less losses on bummer machines. I have also, after playing them with her for two years, identified some general patterns and will leave a machine early when I see them.
    Last edited by slingshot; 11-10-2012 at 11:17 PM. Reason: omitted words

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •