Page 2 of 6 FirstFirst 123456 LastLast
Results 21 to 40 of 110

Thread: Quitting when ahead.

  1. #21
    Arcimedes, and redietz, I admit it. I LIED. I went back to Rincon Sunday afternoon because I decided to "take a shot" with my recent profits and see what I could do with that Visa gift card promotion. I was offered a $200 card just for showing up. (Please see the other thread I started -- the promotion was changed at the last minute and Rincon gave cash instead of Visa cards).

    I LIED because I said I would not be going back because I wouldn't be getting any significant offers during the rest of November. Anyway, here's what happened:

    I showed up and instead of going to get my Visa $200 card I decided to play $2000 in $5 Aces and Faces (8/5 with a payback of about 99.2%) and I had a pretty good run for my money getting several quads but after scoring about 4000+ tier points I was busted. So I went to the Total Rewards Visa Card pickup where I discovered the Visa promotion was changed and they were giving cash instead.

    I got $360 in cash. Then I went to the gift shop where you can redeem "reward points" for gas cards and I picked up $300 worth of Shell gas cards (cost was 600 comp dollars). And I headed for the door and my car.

    But wouldn't you know it, temptation got the better of me and my favorite 8/5 Bonus game was wide open in the Video Poker section and I decided to put $200 in and play at the $2 level. Yes, as I put the $200 into the bill acceptor I could visualize Rob shaking his finger at me and saying I lacked discipline and I am addicted. I also visualized, at the same time, Arcimede$ saying that the next play at that machine was no different than saving that $200 for a future visit.

    So I started pushing buttons. And I got lucky. Or as Rob would say, I caught a hot cycle. Or as Arc would say, I was hot because the RNG's temperature never changes.

    Before I knew it my $200 had grown to $630 and I said to myself, "self, cash out at $600." And on that hand I was dealt three to the royal in spades. And yes, on the draw, the royal filled in for $8,000.

    I was paid cash, played two more hands, and cashed out the remaining $600. I put $6,000 into my zippered jacket pocket and took $2,600 back to the $5 Aces and Faces for one more round of play. Well, as fate would have it during that next session the player on my immediate right hit a $20,000 royal in spades playing Bonus. And a few minutes later the player on my immediate left who was playing the 8/5 Double Double Bonus progressive also got a royal in spades -- but that paid a bit more than $28,000.

    And me? I just went through the $2600 but not before putting on another 4500 or so in tier points, which got me some more "take home money" at the promotion desk. Net win on the day was $6,000 plus a few hundred dollars in promotion money (gas cards came from my comp dollars so they don't count), plus I "earned" myself some more free play and comps for next month. And that was my second royal in two weekends.

    Oh, there was another lie tonight. My wife called and asked me where I was? I told her I was playing poker at a local card room. "How are you doing?" "I'm up 800," I told her in a big fat lie.

    She does not read this forum. Otherwise I would have to pay the "wife tax."

  2. #22
    Actually, I think jatki is your wife's pseudonym. So be warned.

    That's a wild run and a good one.

  3. #23
    It could be a sequel to Rob's book: "Lying and flying through Las Vegas"!

  4. #24
    Alan-you can't be lying because if you look at the photo next to your post, your nose is not growing.

  5. #25
    I'll tell you about a real dummy, ME! I was playing bonus poker at Rincon and went to the bathroom, and I got back and started playing again. I felt like I was getting decent hands but the money was disappearing faster than I expected. Well pretty soon I hit 4 2's and I was happy but the payout was 400 coins instead of 200. That's right the machine had changed games to 8/5 double bonus when I went to the can! No wonder my money had been disappearing so quickly! I took the big payout but felt like a fool, fortunately my mistake worked out for the best.

  6. #26
    That's all part of the math working it's magic bigfoot. You know how everything that happens in videopoker is only because of the math. Even if you decide to stop for a moment and scratch your ass, it was the math that determined when and how it happened, right down to the length of your fingernails that would ultimately decide the level of scratch satisfaction you obtained so as to have to take/not take another quick break to scratch again or not.

  7. #27
    In another thread I posted how I went back to Rincon to check on the fire bet at craps. I did not play craps, but I couldnt resist a little Aces and Faces. I started at a $2 machine in the non smoking area, and I got smoked for $300. Nothing, not even a full house.

    So I went to the $5 machines in the high limit room and put in $500 and got some decent play out of it, hitting quad 10s for $625 which kept me going for awhile and then caught quad Jacks for $1,000. And when I was back down to about $325 I got quad Aces for $2,000.

    Played some more. At the end of the quickie trip I finished with a net gain of $1,100. Gotta love that negative expectation 8/5 Aces and Faces game.

  8. #28
    But Alan, aren't those quickie winning trips and royals and aces hit on them on the negative games, all part of the math's pre-planned fate to turn you into a loser for not knowing better? I hope you keep your banker informed about that.

  9. #29
    Yes-in fact a warrant has been issued----the math police are on their way. RUN ALAN---RUN

  10. #30
    I have a sign on the back of my chair that says "Donkey playing negative expectation games. Don't bother me while I lose."

    By the way, my buddy -- another regular -- who hit a $20,000 royal a couple of nights ago was also back. He played 8/5 DDB a really bad game and hit quad aces with a kicker for ten grand. those negative games will eat you out of house and home, won't they?

  11. #31
    That's cause you are playing wrong. You have to keep playing after a big hit til you lose it all back so the math will even out.

  12. #32
    Or he could take it to the next slot machine promotion, claim he has inside information on what the hold percentages are set at, then proceed to get hammered, and then go home and tell his wife how it was the right thing to do losing all that money, because it was just the math squaring the balance sheet. How do these nutjob AP's say it, that it was still a good play with an edge and they were making $50/hour even though the hammer came down? Silly stuff, 100%.

  13. #33
    I ran a red light a couple of days ago and didn't get caught or hit by another car. I guess that makes it a good idea. I imagine you guys will do it all the time now that you know there is no downside.

  14. #34
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    I ran a red light a couple of days ago and didn't get caught or hit by another car. I guess that makes it a good idea. I imagine you guys will do it all the time now that you know there is no downside.
    Arc, you've really got to explain this analogy... and please explain it slowly. What is the connection between running a red light and all of its dangers with leaving a video poker machine with a profit?

  15. #35
    The connection is obvious. Both have probability factors. The probability I will get hit driving through a red light isn't 100% at the time I did it (around 6am). The probability of losing on a negative machine is also not 100%. You will win sometimes, especially on higher variance games. Does that make either one a good idea?

    That's the connection. They may work out occasionally but over time it's unlikely that either activity will turn out well for you.

  16. #36
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    That's cause you are playing wrong. You have to keep playing after a big hit til you lose it all back so the math will even out.
    I believe that's the best explanation I've read!

  17. #37
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    That's cause you are playing wrong. You have to keep playing after a big hit til you lose it all back so the math will even out.
    Actually, this statement is true. As long as you don't quit forever you will eventually lose it all back playing a negative machine.

    It doesn't matter if you quit temporarily (at a win goal or loss limit), the math simply points out that over time you will lose. There will be times where you see increases in your bankroll but they are temporary and it matters not when you continue to play. The same factors come into play and eventually eat up those wins.

    This is the point that most of you seem to ignore. The odds don't change simply because you leave and return. The opportunity to hit a big losing streak is always present. Nothing changes when you cash out. No magic occurs when you return. If it did then you wouldn't have to leave. Just cash out, get up and click your shoes together and chant "I've just gone home and have now returned", then put your ticket into the same or another machine and continue to play. No difference between this and actually going home as far as the machines, the RNGs and probabilities are concerned.

  18. #38
    Let me see if I got this right. The math says over time regnis will lose and the math says over time arc will win, all because of a percent or two and even though regnis plays perfect and arc does not. Arc you don't need to dig that hole more than six feet deep, or is the math whispering something different in your ear?

  19. #39
    Originally Posted by jatki View Post
    Let me see if I got this right. The math says over time regnis will lose and the math says over time arc will win, all because of a percent or two and even though regnis plays perfect and arc does not.
    I doubt regnis is a robot so I doubt very much he/she plays perfectly. But, this assertion once again demonstrates that robki is completely out of touch with reality.

    As for that percent or two ... it makes all the difference in the world. Would you put your saving in an account that returns -2% every couple of weeks? Didn't think so. Would you put your savings in an account that returns +2% every couple of weeks?

    Not a very tough decision, is it? Only a complete fool would make the claim that robki just made.

    Originally Posted by jatki View Post
    Arc you don't need to dig that hole more than six feet deep, or is the math whispering something different in your ear?
    The math just made a complete fool out of you, Rob. Nothing new but still brings along a nice little chuckle.

  20. #40
    Obsession alert!

    Arc, you can't have it both ways without digging down seven feet. A percent or two only means something if you play as much as Bob Dancer. The amount you claim to play in your paradise casino on the tundra wuuld make your theory meaningless, and the puny amount redetz says he plays and hits expectation or better is almost as contradicted as his supposed consulting to the stars and turning around to play 25c games.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Tags for this Thread

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •