Quitting when ahead.

[arcimede$]

Poor Robbie just had to dig himself in deeper (don't you love the projection). Let's look at an example of what 2% means to my "puny play".

As I've mentioned I play around 5000 hands once a week. Since this is a dollar machine that comes out to $25K each week or a total of $50K for 2 weeks. If I had a 2% edge this comes out to $1000. Yes, that is for only 2 weeks. Even Rob can probably figure out what that comes out for a year.

Of course, he claimed that playing at -2% wouldn't be a big deal. So, the difference is $2000 every two weeks or over $50K each and every year. That, according to our self-proclaimed expert Robbie, is "puny".

[Alan Mendelson]

Arc, what I disagree with is this: you are putting the "math of the game" which is the "expected return" over an above each players decision about playing or not playing, i.e. quitting when ahead or sticking to a loss limit.

Many times I have written that craps is a negative expectation game and that you cannot win at craps over time without being lucky, or without somehow altering what is the random distribution from throwing two dice down a table.

I play craps hoping that somehow I or another player will either get lucky, or if possible, someone will really be able to influence the dice.

However, in all my years of playing I have seen players who, after a "hot roll" will take the money and leave the table, locking up "session profits." There are players who can do this and these players have the potential of winning even at craps which is the "king of negative expectation games".

The expected return at all casino games is one factor when you play. Having discipline to know when to take the profits, and when to cut the losses, is what will ultimately make you a winner or a loser. We are not fortune tellers. We cannot know when the RNG or the dice or the wheel or the shuffle will give us a win. We have to use our other abilities to control our compulsions. If you go strictly by the math, you are following a compulsion of "the math."

[arcimede$]

Alan, that's got to be one of silliest comments you've made to date.

'compulsion of "the math." '

Completely hilarious.

[Alan Mendelson]

Alan, that's got to be one of silliest comments you've made to date.

'compulsion of "the math." '

Completely hilarious.

Yes, you are totally obsessed with it, and it has blinded you to reality. You probably can't even recognize when you are going broke because you think the "math" is going to bail you out. Good luck to you. You need it more than I do. Or the rest of us.

[arcimede$]

Alan, you really need to take your advice to the world. All those stupid casinos with a "compulsion of the math" need to be informed of their mistake. All the major corporations that use a "compulsion of the math" to study markets and set prices. They need to be told how stupid they are ... and, no doubt, you are the man to do it.

You're wasting your time here when you could be saving businesses everywhere. The "Messiah of business" is a title awaiting you.

[Alan Mendelson]

No Arc, Im not talking about the math as it relates to the real world. Im talking about the math as it relates to your fantasy in casino gambling. Just keep at it. But what do I know? Im just a financial journalist turned entrepreneur and Infomercial company owner. I just play video poker for fun and recreation. I can walk away when I reached a win goal or a loss limit. In fact, it's a lot of fun to walk away after reaching a win goal... thank you Rob Singer!!!

[arcimede$]

Yes, you are totally obsessed with it, and it has blinded you to reality. You probably can't even recognize when you are going broke because you think the "math" is going to bail you out. Good luck to you. You need it more than I do. Or the rest of us.

Strange, when I add up all my sessions for the year the math tells me I'm ahead. Must be something wrong with my spreadsheet program, after all math was used to build my computer and programs. You just can't trust that math ... because Alan the Messiah said so.

Bwah haha haha haha

Give me a break, dude, my sides are splitting with laughter. You are seriously in need of a reality check.

[arcimede$]

No Arc, Im not talking about the math as it relates to the real world. Im talking about the math as it relates to your fantasy in casino gambling. Just keep at it. But what do I know? Im just a financial journalist turned entrepreneur and Infomercial company owner. I just play video poker for fun and recreation. I can walk away when I reached a win goal or a loss limit. In fact, it's a lot of fun to walk away after reaching a win goal... thank you Rob Singer!!!

Stop it, Alan. I'm in pain ... now you are claiming there are two different maths. Once a person enters a casino the normal math is replaced by Alan's voodoo math and 2+2 now can equal anything. This is too much.

Bwah haha haha haha

[Alan Mendelson]

Arc, let me say it one more time: there is NO MATH in video poker except for the math in the pay tables. There is NO MATH that tells you that you should continue playing or that you should pick up your profits and leave. There is no math that says win goals are bad or that loss limits are bad. Your probabilities that you worship are all based on a random number generator that has no order and no history and is unlike anything in the real world math of stocks, bonds, investments, seasonal patterns, climatic event, unemployment trends, gross national product, tax rates, marginal propensity to consume, concentric circles of economic development or anything of the kind. What goes on between you and the math of video poker is only a fantasy that the RNG will cooperate. It is a wish, a prayer and dream when you sit down at a RNG video poker machine. It is all luck.

You stop it. I don't want anyone who reads anything you write to think that they could sit down at a game with a "positive pay table" and imagine for a moment that they will beat the casino as you do. If you have been lucky, good for you. Just don't bring your curse on someone else.

[arcimede$]

Arc, let me say it one more time: there is NO MATH in video poker except for the math in the pay tables.

Wrong.

There is NO MATH that tells you that you should continue playing or that you should pick up your profits and leave.

Actually, math can be used to determine your best options. Just like Math is used in financial decisions in markets, it also can be used in a casino. I guess you must not know very much about markets.

There is no math that says win goals are bad or that loss limits are bad.

Never said there was. The math tells you they make no difference. Have you ever read my comments?

Your probabilities that you worship are all based on a random number generator that has no order and no history and is unlike anything in the real world math of stocks, bonds, investments, seasonal patterns, climatic event, unemployment trends, gross national product, tax rates, marginal propensity to consume, concentric circles of economic development or anything of the kind.

To the contrary. Probability computations don't change no matter what field they apply to. Your statement is totally ridiculous. Are you trying to look foolish or does it just come easy?

What goes on between you and the math of video poker is only a fantasy that the RNG will cooperate. It is a wish, a prayer and dream when you sit down at a RNG video poker machine. It is all luck.

Wrong. You're living in an alternate universe. The math applies to VP in the same manner it applies to any random event. Just because you don't like that fact doesn't matter.

You stop it. I don't want anyone who reads anything you write to think that they could sit down at a game with a "positive pay table" and imagine for a moment that they will beat the casino as you do. If you have been lucky, good for you. Just don't bring your curse on someone else.

I see, playing with a high probability of winning is considered bad, but playing negative games with win goals where you have a low chance of success is good.

That has got to be the most idiotic thing you've ever said. Alan, get your head out of you a** and go ask someone you think is an expert. You obviously don't believe me even though I have a degree in math. Go find some PhD's and see what they say.

[Alan Mendelson]

I told you this and others have echoed what I said: your "math" applies to the casino. They can bank on it. You can't. You don't play long enough and you don't play enough machines, to have any benefit from your math. For you, it is luck. Now go flip some pennies.

[jatki]

I get the feeling arc will put together any scenario he can that will make it look like he magically is in a longterm as much as any casino and therefore benefits the same as they do with the math, and he'll dance along claiming I'm posting for or as Rob whenever all his posts don't convert anybody and the result is he ends up angry. Next step? What's a fastfood gravy eater to do? From my understanding he's already kicked the dog and beat the wife as they say, so now it's onto his obsession!

[arcimede$]

I told you this and others have echoed what I said: your "math" applies to the casino. They can bank on it. You can't. You don't play long enough and you don't play enough machines, to have any benefit from your math.

Alan, that is pure nonsense. I showed you within the last week how it doesn't take that many hands for the probabilities to get to the point where a profit is almost guaranteed. Your assertions are silly and are not supportable by the math. Essentially you are lying again. Why would you do that?

Why do you choose to lie to the people who read your forum? It is you who have been leading them astray. You should probably close down this forum. You are pushing worthless techniques and claiming the math that shows that is wrong. You are claiming solid mathematical principles don't apply to VP for players.

Quite disgusting.

[Alan Mendelson]

Arc, you must be right. Playing negative expectation games is a waste of time, and a waste of money. Forget about the strategy to quit when ahead -- because you could never be ahead. A lack of discipline got me to drive back to Rincon last night, and my lack of will power allowed me to put $500 into that 8/5 Aces and Faces machine again. And even though I quickly hit some quads and got up to about $4,000 I didn't have the discipline to quit. So I played some more and lost half of it... just as you would think would happen playing a negative game. But then, lightning struck... quad aces for $2,000. But could I pull myself away from this evil of a negative expectation game? I should have, of course, because you can't win. So wouldn't you know it-- of the $2,000 I was just paid for the quad aces, half went back into the slot. But that wasn't bad because I still had a profit of about $4500. But just a few more plays, I reasoned, so I could report back to you Arc that you were right all along, and you are damned for playing negative games. Damned. Damned. Did you read that Arc? Damned.

And then...



I think that's #10 for the year on negative expectation games. And then I quit and to make sure I did I got it all in a check.

[bigfoot66]

Nice Hit! Way to go! Drinks on Alan!!!!

[arcimede$]

I think this is hilarious. Alan has been preaching that quitting when you get ahead is good strategy. I told him more than once that he may only be limiting his wins. So what does he do, he goes off and provides a nice example of exactly what I said.

[Alan Mendelson]

I think this is hilarious. Alan has been preaching that quitting when you get ahead is good strategy. I told him more than once that he may only be limiting his wins. So what does he do, he goes off and provides a nice example of exactly what I said.

Yes, and on a negative expectation machine because it was in a "hot cycle." LOL

[arcimede$]

Yes, and on a negative expectation machine because it was in a "hot cycle." LOL

No one has ever said a person can't win on negative machines. You are the one that has been harping on quitting when you get ahead. Now, you didn't do it and you got even further ahead. You see it makes no difference. Some times you will lose and other times you will win. Over time it averages out because it's random. Look at all the money you would have lost (not won) lately if you followed Singer's advice.

[Alan Mendelson]

No one has ever said a person can't win on negative machines. You are the one that has been harping on quitting when you get ahead. Now, you didn't do it and you got even further ahead. You see it makes no difference. Some times you will lose and other times you will win. Over time it averages out because it's random. Look at all the money you would have lost (not won) lately if you followed Singer's advice.

Arc, you focus on the winning... but what about the tight loss limits or stop losses? I have a set "loss limit" each time I go to a casino -- and that loss limit is my entertainment budget. When I start winning, as happened last night on the "hot machine" I raised my "stop loss" so that I would always preserve part of my profit.

After the royal I still had $350 on the machine, and I continued to play but my "stop loss" was now that $350. First, I "played off" the royal, and luckily was dealt a pair of aces, which did not improve. I cashed out. What I did was take that $350 to a $1 game where I played for about ten minutes and broke even again. Then it was time to go home. And when I got home my wife was about to leave for work and this time I didn't hide the win. I even showed her the check and then we negotiated the "wife tax" I would have to pay. LOL

[arcimede$]

Arc, you focus on the winning... but what about the tight loss limits or stop losses? I have a set "loss limit" each time I go to a casino -- and that loss limit is my entertainment budget. When I start winning, as happened last night on the "hot machine" I raised my "stop loss" so that I would always preserve part of my profit.

I expect you'll fall off the wagon as soon as you hit an extended losing streak. It will happen, it happens to everyone. Will you keep those "tight loss limits" when you walk in a casino and lose it all in an hour?