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Thread: one million hand simulation

  1. #1
    My cousin works at a major software company. I asked him if he could run a simulation under the following parameters:

    8-5 DDB

    keep 2 aces, or any natural straight or higher. Otherwise, just keep any cards towards a royal. So toss two pair, any pair other than aces etc. Just going for royals unless a good hand dealt.

    He ran 1 million hands and was plus 5.2%. He had 71 royals.

    Arci---don't jump--it's ok. 2+2 still =4.

  2. #2
    thanks for posting that. I'm curious: did you have a starting bankroll and what was it?

    Or, did you just run one million hands?

  3. #3
    Just asked him to run the million hands. I never thought of it but I should have used a bankroll to see if he would go broke first.

    In all these discussions regarding the math etc., and my inability to hit a royal all these years, I was more curious how many royals he would get by playing for a royal rather than what the overall results would be.

    It did cost me 2 tickets to the seahawks game.

  4. #4
    The first question that comes up is always your bankroll and risk of ruin, next comes your chance of winning, and last is actually the number of royals. You can be a very profitable gambler without hitting royals. During my royal flush drought I did very well (no profit, but still very well) hitting straight flushes and quad aces on DDB. But it was very frustrating that I couldn't convert royal draws.

    this year has been much different -- with royals coming sometimes only a week apart.

    Your risk of ruin in DDB is going to be high with an 8/5 paytable, which by the way is what Rincon has now and why I won't play it. By the way, the other day when I had my streak of good luck, the progressive royal was above $40K and I still wouldn't play even a single hand at it...and kept to aces and faces and bonus both at 8/5.

  5. #5
    With programming it's easy to miss something. I doubt very much you'll see those results for a million hands with the 8/5 pay table.

    I've written dozens of VP simulations and when something didn't look right it was always a bug. Post the code and we can take a look. One easy way to verify the code is to run multiple simulations. Some of them should show big losses as well. If they don't, you have a bug. This is how I computed Singer has a .03% chance of winning what he claimed. I ran 10,000 simulations of his system and only 3 showed the profit he'd claimed.

    Keep in mind that 71 RFs is one every 15K hands. A go for the royal strategy has been simulated before and generates a RF on average every 23K hands. I smell a bug.

  6. #6
    Arci--you are simply the best. Nothing anyone else says or does is ever right. Only the world according to Arci.

    I have no idea how to do a simulation or write a program, and I don't even know why I bother to respond to you. But the kid that did this program is an actual genius--not just a smart guy but an actual genius. At 11 years old, he had completed all of his high school credits and most of his college credits, and at that same 11 years old he was being recruited by MIT and NASA.

    He ultimately went to work for a major technology company and he actually writes the coding for many of the video games that millions of kids play. By the way, his mother can't spell cat without calling a friend.

    I see him at weddings, funerals, and bar mitzvahs, so it's not like I am going to impose upon him again. But I sent him 2 tickets to a seahawks game and asked him if he could run the simulation. I can only assume it was done correctly.
    Last edited by regnis; 11-08-2012 at 11:32 AM. Reason: misspell

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    With programming it's easy to miss something. I doubt very much you'll see those results for a million hands with the 8/5 pay table.

    I've written dozens of VP simulations and when something didn't look right it was always a bug. Post the code and we can take a look. One easy way to verify the code is to run multiple simulations. Some of them should show big losses as well. If they don't, you have a bug. This is how I computed Singer has a .03% chance of winning what he claimed. I ran 10,000 simulations of his system and only 3 showed the profit he'd claimed.

    Keep in mind that 71 RFs is one every 15K hands. A go for the royal strategy has been simulated before and generates a RF on average every 23K hands. I smell a bug.
    Are these also in Singer's storage shed??

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    My cousin works at a major software company. I asked him if he could run a simulation under the following parameters:

    8-5 DDB

    keep 2 aces, or any natural straight or higher. Otherwise, just keep any cards towards a royal. So toss two pair, any pair other than aces etc. Just going for royals unless a good hand dealt.

    He ran 1 million hands and was plus 5.2%. He had 71 royals.

    Arci---don't jump--it's ok. 2+2 still =4.
    Doesn't matter regnis, he'll find an issue with your results because he HAS to.
    Was this assuming always the same denomination--just like the AP's do when they purport to analyze anything in vp?

  9. #9
    Rob-I wish I had thought of both a starting bankroll and using your denomination increments, but again, I really was just interested (at the time) in what the results would be in mainly trying to force the royal. In other words, taking "special plays" to the extreme.

    Apparently a million hands doesn't constitute "long term play". So that raises the question again of why play by the math long term when we can't ever attain the long term. So as you and Alan have said in different ways and using different methods, use a shorter term strategy and take the profits and run.

  10. #10
    You are correct. Only the serious addicts play into their own self-described long term. Most of us play close to or less than the amount of play I put into SPS. So for anyone to apply expected long term results with short term play, they'd simply have to be insane. Just as I've always said.

  11. #11
    I wish you could get an answer to my question about the chance that you would run out of money before you hit all of those royals? And how much of a starting bankroll you need?

    If indeed you can hit more royals, and the "risk of ruin" is reasonable, perhaps this isn't a bad idea?

    I know there are a lot of players who play a similar strategy to what regnis presented us, but I have never seen any "numbers" behind it. I'd like to see them.

    By the way, my wife plays this way... several times playing Bonus I saw here keep only an ace and drop one or even two unsuited high cards-- and draw royals. She plays a lot less than I do. In fact, she was in Vegas only once this year, and she was at Rincon with me once this year. And on both trips she got royals -- a $4,000 royal at Caesars and a $2,000 royal at Rincon. So she is way ahead at video poker... and I have the losses to offset her gains. LOL

  12. #12
    I assume arci could calculate the chance of going bust and what the required bankroll would be. But due to his blind spot for any deviation from the norm I don't know if we could trust his numbers.

    I would ask my cousin if I saw him in person--but I hope I don't have the occasion to do so as there is no one left to get married or bar mitzvahed for a good 10 years or so so that would only leave a funeral.

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    I would ask my cousin if I saw him in person--but I hope I don't have the occasion to do so as there is no one left to get married or bar mitzvahed for a good 10 years or so so that would only leave a funeral.
    This sounds like my family too. We only see each other at weddings, Bar Mitzvahs, and funerals.

  14. #14
    Making a claim that can't be backed up is just plain silly. If you can't replicate the work then it is worthless. I have no idea why you brought it up. For all we know you made up the whole shebang.

    Just because the guy is a genius does not mean he doesn't make mistakes. You are talking to a person who programmed for a living for over 30 years and likely has far more experience than your cousin. Oh yeah, it also happens that IQ tests also rate me a genius, yet I would never claim that I always write bug free programs. No one does.

    Have him send you the code and cut/paste it here. That should be simple to do with a single email ... without it I'll have to assume you made up the entire story.

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    I assume arci could calculate the chance of going bust and what the required bankroll would be. But due to his blind spot for any deviation from the norm I don't know if we could trust his numbers.

    I would ask my cousin if I saw him in person--but I hope I don't have the occasion to do so as there is no one left to get married or bar mitzvahed for a good 10 years or so so that would only leave a funeral.
    Regnis, remember, arci probably expects everyone to have a lot of punishment-based down time on their hands, so he'll almost certainly insult you and/or your source for any reason possible. Just keep in mind though as I always do: YOUR AND YOUR SOURCE'S situation are far far better than what he's sufferring thru. That always gets him...

  16. #16
    My IQ was measured at 135. I don't know what that means. But I do try to get through all of the propositions on the ballots and balance my checkbook. I also know how to play 8/5 Bonus. Would I be as successful with an IQ of 90? I think so.

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Making a claim that can't be backed up is just plain silly. If you can't replicate the work then it is worthless. I have no idea why you brought it up. For all we know you made up the whole shebang.

    Just because the guy is a genius does not mean he doesn't make mistakes. You are talking to a person who programmed for a living for over 30 years and likely has far more experience than your cousin. Oh yeah, it also happens that IQ tests also rate me a genius, yet I would never claim that I always write bug free programs. No one does.

    Have him send you the code and cut/paste it here. That should be simple to do with a single email ... without it I'll have to assume you made up the entire story.
    I just think it is too funny that arci wants to argue whether my cousin is a genius or not.
    Come on--that is the funniest thing ever on this Forum.

  18. #18
    Do you want to argue whether the world is round?? I can't prove it either way.

  19. #19
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    I just think it is too funny that arci wants to argue whether my cousin is a genius or not.
    Come on--that is the funniest thing ever on this Forum.
    Can't you read? My point was it doesn't matter whether your cousin is a genius or not. He can still make mistakes. And, the more important point that you ignored is no one is going to take your word for something on the internet. Put up or shut up.

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    I just think it is too funny that arci wants to argue whether my cousin is a genius or not.
    Come on--that is the funniest thing ever on this Forum.
    Regnis, while it IS the funniest thing ever, what brings it on is in how arci now feels threatened by your cousin's ability to be something he's never been able to be and to do something he's incapable of doing. Why, I'm betting the little fellow could even come up with a new and interesting way to kill time!

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