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Thread: one million hand simulation

  1. #21
    The "little fellow" is now in his mid 30's so he is not a kid anymore. Because he is younger than me and I haven't seen him in years I will probably refer to him as a kid.

    But Arci would like this info to be certified and published so he can sleep at night because the results deviated from expected return. Then he says I made it all up.

    My whole point was intellectual curiosity as I, and probably many others, have often thought---to hell with it--I'm just going for the royal, and I was curious what would happen if that were tried.

    So now my curiosity is satisfied. Will I implement this system--NO.

    Will I discuss it further and send the CIA to water board my cousin to determine if he erred or, even worse, intentionally rigged the results to mess with Arci's head, NO.

  2. #22
    ROTFLMAO. Nothing you have done will "mess with" my head. I already know about random events. I understand the bell curve and it is possible you could win money playing 8/5 whatever. Remember I've stated many times that even Singer has a .03% chance of winning what he claims. What you seem to miss is that means nothing as to what you can expect in the future. By only running a single case (if indeed you did) you have demonstrated only that you are clueless. Congratulations.

  3. #23
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    My point was it doesn't matter whether your cousin is a genius or not. He can still make mistakes. And, the more important point that you ignored is no one is going to take your word for something on the internet. Put up or shut up.
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    I've stated many times that even Singer has a .03% chance of winning what he claims.
    So, how do we know that your claim that Singer has only "a .03% chance of winning what he claims" is correct?

  4. #24
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    So, how do we know that your claim that Singer has only "a .03% chance of winning what he claims" is correct?
    He ran it thru my cousin--lol

  5. #25
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    He ran it thru my cousin--lol
    That's funny!

    You can ask arci about his .03% claim until the cows come home, because he knows he has no clue and he only puts up such numbers without any sort of proof since he thinks one or two others might be impressed by such a "tested genius".

  6. #26
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    So, how do we know that your claim that Singer has only "a .03% chance of winning what he claims" is correct?
    Unlike fools that run a single simulation I ran 10,000 simulations of Singer's system (for the number of sessions he claimed) several times. All combined only .03% of all the runs reached the level of success Singer has claimed.

    PS. I should add that I used games that are likely better than Singer used (like 10/6 DDB instead of 9/6 and Aces and Eights instead of BP) and the software plays optimally with no errors, something no human can do. If I used some of the games Singer has claimed to use in the past (like 7/5 BP) I suspect the number would drop even more.
    Last edited by arcimede$; 11-10-2012 at 07:36 AM.

  7. #27
    This fool ran a single simulation for my own curiosity, not to suggest a system, not to prove a point, and not to create a lifelong argument with arci. So if your OCD requires 10,000 simulations--live it up!! Go for it. I just thought people might find the results interesting.

    On a more serious note Arci. I was again wondering--for intellectual curiosity---The Chicago Cubs are now 104 years without winning. If I started with 10 dollars and used a Martingale, where would I be at now? (That's right--I can't do the math)
    What better example can there be to show the fallacy of the Martingale.

  8. #28
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    This fool ran a single simulation for my own curiosity, not to suggest a system, not to prove a point, and not to create a lifelong argument with arci. So if your OCD requires 10,000 simulations--live it up!!
    The problem is it does nothing to satisfy anyone's "curiosity" because there's no way to know the program is correct. It was a waste of your cousin's time and a waste of ours. It's like writing a simulated craps game of one roll, seeing a 12 and assuming somehow that is meaningful. For all we know the next roll would have been a 13.

  9. #29
    Thanks for your support.

  10. #30
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Thanks for your support.
    Your welcome. Hopefully, you learned something from your mistake.

  11. #31
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Thanks for your support.
    I take it you're experiencing some of that cooped-up angst arci occasionally can't help himself displaying whenever anyone suggests--or in your case, proves--that there is someone who is intellectually superior to him, and has nothing to do with that famous punch card era in programming. I just saw he also has a need to have the last word with you too! Congratulations....you've just joined the club of those of us who see the joy of getting under his skin at will, and even when we don't just come right out and say it, he thinks we do! Ain't he fun!?

  12. #32
    Rob-it is sad because although I have been reading this forum for a long time, I only started posting a few months ago. I was respectful of Arci's intelligence but he has almost insisted that it become a battle. And yes, I have (to myself) kept noting that he must have the last word no matter what. And yes, despite it not being my intention to battle with him, he does kind of make it fun.

    That being said, I am not going to be dragged into it anymore. I try to inject some humor at times but he apparently has none.

    I would still hope that you back off the attacks on his wife's health.

  13. #33
    The lack of humor is the best part! It always gives me a crystal clear picture in my mind of what it must look like sitting there for the rest of one's life.

    His wife? Tough love. He brought it on himself by blabbing about it long ago and how he could have made things a lot easier. I just put two and two together.

  14. #34
    In the meantime.....Had $10 in free play today and all my chores at the church done and having mowed my father-in-law's yard, I took the free play and $100 just for funsies. I put the $10 and a twenty in the 5 cent video poker machines and proceeded to play 5/10/25 cent aart. Had just about gone through it, and two A's and a pair of tens showed. Well, since it was my last few credits on bp, I held the A's and wouldn't you know-two more popped up! For a net of $91.25! Cashed out and still had my original $80 left, so I decided to just play 25 cent ddbp on very short term basis. Lost $20 on each of the next two machines, but the third machine started listening to me (lol) and kept giving me straights and full houses to bring me back to my original credits, so I kept on a little more and 4 2's/w/kicker hit~! Got my you-know-what outta there~!

  15. #35
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Rob-it is sad because although I have been reading this forum for a long time, I only started posting a few months ago. I was respectful of Arci's intelligence but he has almost insisted that it become a battle.
    The why was it you attacked me first? I love it how people love to change their stories after they've been made to look like fools.

  16. #36
    Originally Posted by slingshot View Post
    In the meantime.....Had $10 in free play today and all my chores at the church done and having mowed my father-in-law's yard, I took the free play and $100 just for funsies. I put the $10 and a twenty in the 5 cent video poker machines and proceeded to play 5/10/25 cent aart. Had just about gone through it, and two A's and a pair of tens showed. Well, since it was my last few credits on bp, I held the A's and wouldn't you know-two more popped up! For a net of $91.25! Cashed out and still had my original $80 left, so I decided to just play 25 cent ddbp on very short term basis. Lost $20 on each of the next two machines, but the third machine started listening to me (lol) and kept giving me straights and full houses to bring me back to my original credits, so I kept on a little more and 4 2's/w/kicker hit~! Got my you-know-what outta there~!
    Well sling, since you hit four Aces after throwing away two pair, it couldn't POSSIBLY happen again for a long long time--or at least for what the math says it should on average. You know how the math always makes people who go against it, lose .....

    Now for some added enjoyment, sit back and watch arci whine about what others say about him. Then for dessert, you can think about him tossing and turning over all of it tonight!

  17. #37
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    I wish you could get an answer to my question about the chance that you would run out of money before you hit all of those royals? And how much of a starting bankroll you need?

    If indeed you can hit more royals, and the "risk of ruin" is reasonable, perhaps this isn't a bad idea?

    I know there are a lot of players who play a similar strategy to what regnis presented us, but I have never seen any "numbers" behind it. I'd like to see them.

    By the way, my wife plays this way... several times playing Bonus I saw here keep only an ace and drop one or even two unsuited high cards-- and draw royals. She plays a lot less than I do. In fact, she was in Vegas only once this year, and she was at Rincon with me once this year. And on both trips she got royals -- a $4,000 royal at Caesars and a $2,000 royal at Rincon. So she is way ahead at video poker... and I have the losses to offset her gains. LOL
    Just read this and there IS something to dropping all but one or two cards and I have very good luck doing it. I certainly don't do it all the time. Just as strange, the sweeps produce just as well sometimes. It's fascinating the hands that show up with less than perfect plays.

  18. #38
    Regnis, I want to personally thank you for posting this. I've added some special plays to my arsenal at appropriate times. Strangely, I had read about this but only in terms of when the value of a Royal reaches a very high amount in progressives. The thought of trying some plays at lower levels under adverse results makes the game less boring- and ANYTHING can happen at ANYTIME!

  19. #39
    The best part is having one of those self-proclaimed advantage player sitting next to you when the special plays hit. I've trained numerous AP's who told me they had advanced math degrees, elaborate jobs in science at universities, and everyday people who thought they had it all figured out--you know, like arci does. When those plays hit during,training sessions it's like their worlds are rocked greater than anything you've ever seen. Of course, arci still sits in his lonely chair trying to figure out where and why it all went wrong for him in his retirement years. A whole lotta tough love just might explain it!!

  20. #40
    BTW, today &tomorrow Mrs. Singer and I are going to several movies (Taken 2 today/Skyfall tomorrow) around Carson City & Reno, then we're staying at the Peppermill until Friday when our children & grandchildren arrive up in Tahoe where we begin our holiday celebrations for the next 9 days in a rented home on the Lake. I will, however, take,time out to think of arci and his woe. The machines do that to some people you know

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