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Thread: one million hand simulation

  1. #41
    Rob...clearly you revel in the pure enjoyment you find in putting down anyone who has a life that you have deemed to be less than yours. Perhaps labeling this tendency of yours as despicable might be a little harsh, but it's close. Thanksgiving is indeed a time for reflection and to be thankful for one's blessings. Too bad you haven't been blessed with something from Shakespeare's play Macbeth : the milk of human kindness.

  2. #42
    He could be lactose intolerant.

  3. #43
    Originally Posted by Vegas Vic View Post
    Rob...clearly you revel in the pure enjoyment you find in putting down anyone who has a life that you have deemed to be less than yours. Perhaps labeling this tendency of yours as despicable might be a little harsh, but it's close. Thanksgiving is indeed a time for reflection and to be thankful for one's blessings. Too bad you haven't been blessed with something from Shakespeare's play Macbeth : the milk of human kindness.
    The most likely situation is his life is completely fake just like everything else about him. We already know his big house was a lie so why would anything else be true? Don't believe a word he says.

  4. #44
    Originally Posted by Vegas Vic View Post
    Rob...clearly you revel in the pure enjoyment you find in putting down anyone who has a life that you have deemed to be less than yours. Perhaps labeling this tendency of yours as despicable might be a little harsh, but it's close. Thanksgiving is indeed a time for reflection and to be thankful for one's blessings. Too bad you haven't been blessed with something from Shakespeare's play Macbeth : the milk of human kindness.
    See Vic, I'm taking a little time out tonight and before my family shows up tomorrow, to offer some help and guidance for your concerns. I understand what prompted you to write the post. Arci asks for it every time he claims I'm lying about this and that. So what's the best way to deal with such a soul who obviously lives an angry life filled with conflict? Hit him where it hurts, and all that takes is to explain what a nice family my wife & I have, how we cherish the few times we're able to all get together anymore, and a quick mention of how mobile we all are doesn't hurt. He's always believed he is the big impressive one on all the forums. I revel in chipping away at his BS, and chopping away his false personna. I REALLY do!

  5. #45
    I see Singer is once again repeating the same lies as always. Yawn. Yet, when ask for any kind of proof about the location of his claimed 4500 sqft home he remains noticeably silent. Says all there is to say.

    I believe much of what he says, supposedly about me, is really nothing but psychological projection. If you read his words, you know he is suffering a miserable existence. I think this quote sums up his life pretty well ... "an angry life filled with conflict".

    How could it not be true. Since he moved to avoid legal hassles in Arizona, he has now moved to two different places in one year. Does that sound like someone secure in their life? Nope, he's running from his problems. The only problem is he can never escape from the biggest problem ... himself.

  6. #46
    interesting to see where this thread got hijacked to.

    But cousin was here this weekend and I showed him the responses from you all to the previous simulation. He assured me there are no bugs or glitches--and then he ran 3 more million hand simulations.

    1. Only 3 royals and -4.6%;
    2. 24 royals and + 2.8%; and
    3. 32 royals but - less than 1%

    This time he used proper strategy rather than the original parameters that were essentially for my own edification.

    Proves 1 thing to me---I must be an unlucky SOB cause other than that 1 week recently when I got 3 royals, I only have 5 in millions of hands.

  7. #47
    I had to go back and read again the original post because I forgot about this.

    Does he stand by the original finding and did you ask him about bankroll requirements and the risk of going broke with certain bankrolls?

    And is the bottom line that he disputes the "accepted odds" of getting a royal in about one in 42,000 hands (approx) ??

  8. #48
    Alan-he really has no interest in the subject to dispute anything--he just ran the simulations for me. But he was laughing at the premise that his simulation had a bug as he is a genius and him running the simulation is like me spelling cat.

    I explained to him about the math and RNG and AP's and that a couple of the now 4 simulations were way off. But as someone who rights the programs (albeit not for IGT or any other poker machine) for the games everyone's kids play, he didn't have any problem with the vast deviation. He felt the "long term" probably required 10 million hands and that the above deviations were still not out of line.

    I did again forget to ask him about bankroll.

    I hope not to see him again soon as that would mean another funeral as there are no more kids left for Bar Mitzvahs or weddings.

  9. #49
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    I hope not to see him again soon as that would mean another funeral as there are no more kids left for Bar Mitzvahs or weddings.
    Ahhh... so you also have a normal Jewish family... when we see each other only at weddings, Bar Mitzvahs, and funerals.

  10. #50
    Or with my family, weddings, Bar mitzvahs, weddings funerals, or the race track.

    My grandfather was disabled, unable to drive, work, etc., and would take 3 busses to sneak out to the racetrack. I was the only one who knew where he was (but I couldn't say) because I had skipped school and was at the track also. But till he made it home safe I couldn't tell the family where he was and that he was ok even tho they were worried he was lying dead somewhere.

  11. #51
    As I stated earlier. I would typically run something like 10,000 simulations to avoid the chances of running into outliers like those you presented. Any person who doesn't realize this aspect of random simulations is not a genius ... at least not when it comes to this particular topic. Sorry.

    Now, as to the above results not being out of line. The odds of getting those 4 particular results in 4 simulations is astronomical. Consider this, 8/5 DDB pays 97.25%. That's 2.75% below the 100% break even point. Typically in one million hands you would hit 24 RF and yet with 25 RFs one of the simulations returned +2.8%. Yeah, right. That means the other hands had to achieve +2.75 + 2.8 - .08%. That is 5.5% above the ER for one million hands. That is pure nonsense. The number of quads you'd have to hit is ridiculous. The odds of this happening are similar to the odds that Singer claimed for his 5th card flip overs. No computer program would generate this extreme. You see computers don't really cover 100% of all possibilities. The one in 10^100 results never happen.

    I find this thread immensely humorous as would anyone with any knowledge of statistics. I guess your cousin is not much of a statistics genius. Or .... you made it all up.

  12. #52
    Arci-you really are all that Singer says you are. The kid was asked to run the 3 new simulations. If you want to run 10,000 feel free. He has no interest in VP at all, and has never played for real money--only on the puter.

    The results are what they are--and because they don't meet your beloved EP they must be a hoax.

    The key point is it proves that random means random, and maybe your holy grail of the "long run" is suspect.

    What he did explain is how some of his games are set to certain percentages, and within the gaming context the deviations from what he has programmed in that environment would not be out of line. Whether that translates to Vp---up to you to decide. You take this all too serious.

    And by the way, what are the odds of my going millions of hands without a royal? That is what random means. the math be damned.

  13. #53
    By the way, we can argue all day how smart he is. We can also argue who has the bigger schmeckie. The kid received a masters from MIT at 14 or 15. He was recruited by MIT, NASA, and many others by the time he was 10. He is the only true genius I know--and, although he never had a normal life, a nice kid on top of it. Only problem is he's not real good with the girls.
    So sorry that he is smarter than you, and that Rob is better at VP than you. I guess life sucks.

    Go relax, have a beer, and play some one eyed jacks and don't take everything so serious.

  14. #54
    Regnis, your defensive attitude does make it seem like you made all this up. Any math guy will tell you those results are ridiculous. And, any attempt to draw conclusions from those results is even more idiotic. Sorry.

    I'm not the one taking this serious. I simply pointed out it is flawed beyond belief. If that bothers you that is your problem.

    The OEJs machines I was playing have been removed. Looks like my gambling will go way down this year. I'll be collecting freeplay until they stop it and maybe taking a longer trips to some OEJs 3x further from my house later in the year.

  15. #55
    arci-i don't have an agenda here. All I did was show him the comments to the old simulation and ask him to run 3 more. All it shows me is exactly how random random is. That you feel the results are ridiculous likewise shows me that random means random. Nothing more--nothing less--not trying to prove anything--just my own curiosity.

  16. #56
    Arci--have you ever tried horses? Although there is a significant house edge due to the take out, you are playing against other players, not the house, most of whom are casual gamblers or just plain idiots. Therefore, a smart player does have the edge. Can be a substitute for your 1 eyed J's. Canterbury is a nice little track.

  17. #57
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Regnis, your defensive attitude does make it seem like you made all this up. Any math guy will tell you those results are ridiculous. And, any attempt to draw conclusions from those results is even more idiotic. Sorry.

    I'm not the one taking this serious. I simply pointed out it is flawed beyond belief. If that bothers you that is your problem.

    The OEJs machines I was playing have been removed. Looks like my gambling will go way down this year. I'll be collecting freeplay until they stop it and maybe taking a longer trips to some OEJs 3x further from my house later in the year.
    That sucks. what did they put in? Did you just walk in one day and and...

  18. #58
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    The OEJs machines I was playing have been removed. Looks like my gambling will go way down this year.
    Ya know, deep down inside I wish they had turned the craps pit at Caesars Palace into a slot room. My gambling would have gone way down and my bank account would have gone up.

  19. #59
    Originally Posted by quahaug View Post
    That sucks. what did they put in? Did you just walk in one day and and...
    I got lucky. The last time I played they put a note on the machines they were being taken down for maintenance. The guy I was playing next to said he heard they were being take out. So, I called another friend a few days later and he confirmed they had been removed.

    Alan, the reason they were taken out is they were losing money. Since they took out 6 others this year what ended up happening is the 2 machines were only being played by APers. I knew they would eventually disappear. And, since I've made money on them every year I don't feel the same as you would have.

  20. #60
    It's like good women, Arc. The good ones disappear too.

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