Originally Posted by
Rob.Singer
Alan, here's why being able to consistently win and win only on those awful -EV games is entirely possible: you already know this, but go ahead and set a 5c win goal for every trip you take. Never mind arci's claim that it's not realistic to do this--he only says that because he doesn't like what it represents--because it actually IS a real scenario and the math SAYS it's a real scenario. Play BP nickels thru $25, starting at one nickel then increasing the bet until you get 2pair or better (or a push and play it again) then leave a winner. You'll play hands of 5c, 10c, 25c, 50c, $1, $2, $5, $10, & $25,. That's nine opportunities to get 2pr.--a 1 in 9 chance, or about 11%. So how often does two pair hit on average? About 13% of the time. So can the math guys argue against this? Nope, except to theorize that when the times come that you don't attain the two pair in these 9 tries, the loss will be $43.90, and with their all-time favorite guess about my strategy, they'll say how it will wipe out all the smaller winners. But will these guys ever want to accept that some bigger winners can and do hit--and more often than the $43.90 losers?? Nope, because it doesn't fit their theory about negative ev machines, and it will totally contradict their arguments.